Geopolitical Forecasting

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , ,

The growing convergence story promises to alter our view of possible futures. There are a number of likely shifts that make Geopolitics a critical piece of the story. These shifts add to the high degree of uncertainty reflected in the current environment. In light of this, evaluating geopolitical implications and their influence on the future is growing in importance. But how? I just finished a book titled Geopolitical Alpha that offers a perspective on how to improve forecast accuracy in the geopolitical domain.

The era of geopolitical ignorance is over. The days when investors and corporate decision-makers could be successful without much understanding of politics will be a footnote in the annals of history.

Marko Papic – Geopolitical Alpha
Continue reading →

Will AI Be More Impactful Than Fire, Electricity, Or The Internet?

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , ,
Continue reading →

Non-Fungible Tokens

Frank Diana innovation accelerators ,

The hype surrounding non-fungible tokens (NFTs) is reaching a fever pitch. A recent article describes NFTs as data added to a file that creates a unique signature. It can be an image file, a song, a tweet, a text posted on a website, a physical item, and various other digital formats. Another article explores NFTs from the perspective of value.

Continue reading →

Central Bank Digital Currency

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Money 2.0 , , , , , , ,

With the publishing of a highly anticipated report on US central bank digital currency (CDBC) last Thursday, CDBC’s will likely get more media coverage. A CBDC would serve as a purely digital version of cash that’s backed by the Fed and just as available to the public as physical cash. This recent article describes both the pros and cons of a CDBC. One big pro is that a CBDC could bring safe, fast, and accessible payments. An example of a con is:

Continue reading →

Web3

Frank Diana innovation accelerators, Metaverse , , , , , , , , ,

The current buzz surrounding Web3 represents the convergence of multiple domains. In the past, Web 3.0 represented the semantic web, which focused on making Internet data machine-readable. Web3 has moved to a broader place, including the Metaverse and decentralization. The metaverse is described by Wikipedia as a network of 3D virtual worlds focused on social connection. The metaverse itself is a huge buzzword these days, but its origins date back to Author Neil Stephenson when he coined the term in Snow Crash, a dystopian cyberpunk novel published in 1992. In the novel, the metaverse is described as a 3D shared virtual world – a whole universe of shared virtual spaces seemingly linked together with an ability to teleport between them. Games like Minecraft and Fortnite are close to the vision that he foresaw. You can explore more on the metaverse here.

Continue reading →

The Third Age Of Aviation

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Mobility , , , ,

Their electric plane achieved a top speed of 55.9 kilometers per hour on November 16, 2021. The plane also broke the record for the fastest time to climb to 3000 meters (202 seconds) as well as maintaining a record speed of 532 kilometers per hour for over 15 kilometers. What’s more, during those runs, the Spirit of Innovation clocked a top speed of 623 kilometers per hour.

Mark Jessen – on the Rolls-Royce all-electric aircraft

A recent article describes the record-breaking achievements of an all-electric aircraft developed by Rolls-Royce. The first video is a very short view into this program. The second provides a deep look into the future of aviation.

Continue reading →

AI 2022: Creativity, Ubiquity, and Public Policy

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , ,

How far will artificial intelligence (AI) go? In a post earlier this week, I asked for the reader’s perspective on that question. The poll from that post is included here – please contribute your thoughts. In the nearer term, a recent article provides perspective on AI trends in 2022. Three key areas are addressed: creativity, ubiquity, and public policy. I have shown several examples of AI encroaching upon areas of human creativity. The article provides examples that mark a shift in the creative abilities of AI.

Continue reading →

The Driverless Race

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

As the world pursues new mobility solutions, innovative new business models emerge. It is easy to lose faith in a given innovation. The slower than expected rise of autonomous driving is a case in point. But innovation does not stop at the technology level. The video below is a great example that blends autonomous technology with remote operations and a human driver. This remote piece of the model will play out in many scenarios as a stepping stone towards full autonomy. In this example, a remote operator gets the car to the rider, who drives from there. Once arriving at the destination, the remote operator takes over from there. This is similar to the path of autonomous trucking. These niche scenarios accelerate the path towards full autonomy.

The Economy Is A Critical Area Of Convergence

Frank Diana Books , , , , , ,

Much is said about the critical role that science and technology play in shaping the future. This area of convergence continues to have a profound impact on that future. I have described the importance of convergence in various posts in the past, highlighting the impact of other domains like geopolitics, philosophy, and society. Another key domain is the economy. Understanding the global economy is critical to illuminating possible futures. The role of Central Banks has been instrumental in navigating extreme events like COVID-19, as well as the various boom and bust financial cycles of the past.

Continue reading →

How Artificial Intelligence Will Transform Everything

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

In 2015, best-selling author Martin Ford gave us Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. In the fall of 2021, he followed that up with Rule of the Robots: How Artificial Intelligence (AI) Will Transform Everything. In his recent book, he explores various aspects of artificial intelligence – both positive and negative. He likens AI to electricity, perhaps the greatest general-purpose technology the world has ever known. A general-purpose technology is pervasive, improving over time, and able to spawn new innovations. In the Second Machine Age, the authors describe this phenomenon as a common element of each industrial revolution, including steam (First), electricity, Telephone, and internal combustion engine (second), and Internet (third).

We can go all the way back to fire to witness the impact of these pervasive innovations. In an article from July of 2021, Sundar Pichai, the chief executive of Google’s owner Alphabet, said that he believes artificial intelligence (AI) will eventually have a bigger impact than fire, electricity, and the Internet. This poll from my post on the topic explored the reaction to that belief. Fifty-eight percent of respondents agreed with him. Please take the poll and lend your voice to the conversation.

Continue reading →

Space – The Final Frontier

Frank Diana Space , , , ,

Hypersonic airlines? Is that a byproduct of our focus on space technology? Could I fly from New York to London in 30 minutes? Space is a great example of the broad ecosystems that form around a given domain. It also illuminates the convergence associated with them. For example, space intersects with domains like Internet, communications, GPS, and Intelligence, via satellites, resources, via space mining, energy, via solar panels closer to the sun, as well as wireless energy transmission, travel, via hypersonic flight, tourism, shelter, via space habitats, and military, via space forces. There are other areas of intersection, and each area underscores the growing importance of ecosystems.

Continue reading →

Winning The Right Game

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , ,

My belief in a shifting organizing system dates back several years. The work of leading think tank RethinkX effectively highlights why. History tells us that a collapse is inevitable when the existing system can no longer adapt fast enough to order-of-magnitude improvement in technological capabilities. When this condition is present, a new organizing system is required. RethinkX defines an organizing system as:

Continue reading →

Humanoid Robot Defends Personal Space

Frank Diana innovation accelerators, Robotics , , , ,

Many prognosticators expect a robotic tipping point this year. We are witnessing the acceleration of the robotic journey with advancements appearing at a dizzying pace. Unlike the robots of the past, these advancements might freak us out – as it did to the folks at Engineered Arts when they witnessed this reaction by their humanoid robot. See video below.

Signals To Watch for In 2022

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , , ,

Understanding possible futures is all about signals – and there is no shortage of them. A dominant conversation these days is focused on how to sense these signals, derive foresight, and respond. While foresight helps us see possible futures, the next challenge is moving from a high degree of uncertainty to some level of actionable certainty. That step in the process is a combination of science and art. Signals manifest themselves through the current and emerging building blocks that shape our future – and they are coming at us from every corner of society. Since I don’t believe in prediction, I will focus my year-end post on signals to look for in 2022 across four key areas.

Continue reading →

Present Future

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , ,

Time is the dimension of historians and futurists, of chroniclers of what was, and speculators of what may be. Here is a truth: In making any decision, we are by definition deciding what to do . . . next. We must choose amongst known possibilities and paths, simulate outcomes and consequences in our minds. Another truth: At any decision point, 100% of the information we have is based on the past, while 100% of the value and consequences of the decision we make lies in the future, which is inherently probabilistic and unknown

Guy Perelmuter, Present Future: Business, Science, and the Deep Tech Revolution

That quote comes from a recent book titled Present Future authored by Guy Perelmuter, Founder at GRIDS Capital. The book takes a look at history and the future. The foreward echoes one of my strong beliefs: “when it comes to our endlessly unfolding future, the only certainty is uncertainty, and the only way to reduce uncertainty is to have a deep sense of history and reliable clues to the future.” That foreward was written by Josh Wolf, Founder and Managing Director, Lux Capital. He describes the book as follows:

Continue reading →

2022 Prediction Consensus

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , , , ,

In truth, experts are merely guessing at what will happen over the coming year. In 2020, almost nobody had a pandemic on their bingo card. In 2021, NFTs completely flew under the radar of experts, and nobody saw a container ship get lodged in the Suez Canal in their crystal ball.

Nick Routley – Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022

We may not be able to predict the future but we can create it. Analyzing the thoughts of experts helps us envision possible futures – and through envisioning we open a path towards creation. In this recent article via Nick Routley, we get a big picture look at what experts predict for the coming year.

Continue reading →

Sustainable Development

Frank Diana Purpose and Well-Being , ,

There are several broad themes that will receive attention in 2022. They include sustainability, health and wellness, social justice, and mobility (including electric and autonomous vehicles). At the heart of each of these themes is sustainable development, with dialog emerging in three broad buckets:

When viewed through a business lens, each bucket drives focus on sustainable development. The big question for the year is: how do you measure it? It’s one thing to say that sustainability, social good, and inclusion are on equal footing with profitability and growth – it’s another to realize it. A recent book via Alec Ross provides some ideas regarding measurement. Measurement aside, there are plenty of signs that focus will be there. In a recent article on ESG, author Stephanie Mehta Fast Company Impact Council provides insight from members of the council.

Continue reading →

2022 Prediction Season

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , , , ,

It’s that time of year when the airwaves are filled with predictions. I launched my post on signals prior to the holidays, consciously avoiding the term prediction. Regardless of how I feel about predicting in the current environment, there are many thoughtful articles to consider. Here are several prediction articles that I have curated.

Continue reading →

The Raging 2020s

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , ,

The signals are coming from every direction. To understand the future, signals illuminate possible paths. As I have written multiple times, history provides a wealth of signals. Looking at similar historical periods provides insight that feeds foresight. A book I recently completed did an incredible job of using history as a source of signals. In The Changing World Order, Ray Dalio explores all the major historical empires, the world order they presided over, and their eventual collapse. In doing so, he points to several signals that are shining bright red. Decision-makers would be wise to understand these signals.

Continue reading →

The Changing World Order

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , , ,

Ray Dalio is the Co-Chief Investment Officer & Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, In making decisions, he has found history to be very instructive. This is a recurring theme that I write about often, as I view history as a key source of signals. I’ve included links that explore these signals below. In exploring possible futures, it is helpful to understand the patterns of history – and they really do rhyme. In the book The Fourth Turning, the authors describe what the cycles of history tells us about our next rendezvous with destiny. What intrigued me as a Futurist is the claim by the books authors that our past can indeed predict our future – it’s a compelling argument when viewed through the lens of these historical cycles.

Continue reading →