In a recent post titled Demonetized Cost of Living, Peter Diamandis describes how technological socialism (i.e. having our lives taken care of by technology) will drive our cost of living close to zero. A similar case was made by Economist Jeremy Rifkin in his book titled The Zero Marginal Cost Society. Diamandis defines demonetization as the ability of technology to take a product or service that was previously expensive and making it substantially cheaper, or potentially free; removing money from the equation. Demonetized is one of the Six D’s of digital, as described by Diamandis and captured in one of my visuals below.
I participated in a radio show yesterday brought to you by Coffee Break with Game Changers. The show was hosted by Bonnie D. Graham and is now available on-demand here. When asked about a leadership trait required to effectively navigate our exponential future, I echoed something I have positioned many times via this Blog: Connecting Dots. The speed dimension that has accelerated our pace will put those dots in constant motion – so it’s a continuous state of connecting that makes this more challenging than our forward looking efforts of the past. The foundation for this argument was positioned in my post describing how Disruptive Power Lies at the Intersections. This visual from that post leverages my anchor visual on our emerging future.
The airwaves are filled with talk of exponential technologies like Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Renewable Energy and more. In addition, societal factors that influence or are influenced by technology are getting more attention. So what’s the buzz?
An article on Blockchain uses eight visuals to describe The Future of Blockchain and provides a Financial Services adoption timeline. The adoption scenario predicts that Blockchain will move past the Innovators phase in 2016 and reach 13.5 percent of early adopters within financial services. The tipping point is then expected to happen in 2018, as the early majority begins to see benefits realized by early adopters, and new models emerge. The growth phase lasts until 2025 when Blockchain goes main stream within financial services. This visual from the article captures the adoption cycle.
A separate piece by Mckinsey focuses on Blockchain in Insurance. A key take away from this report is that Blockchain is yet another example of an ecosystem growing beyond traditional industry.
I will be participating in another radio show brought to you by Coffee Break with Game Changers. The show is hosted by Bonnie D. Graham tomorrow 7-12-16 at 10:00 am EST. You can listen live or at your convenience after the show.
The buzz: Need X-ray vision? Business and social cultures are changing faster and in more ways than we ever imagined! Take Brexit, where an economic, political and social ripple disrupted the world after a majority vote by UK citizens to leave the EU. Compounding this, new technology innovations – i.e., virtual reality systems, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, the Internet of Things – are transforming every company, while new business models are transforming entire industries. How can you see “around corners” and be proactive? Ask a Futurist for the secrets behind their long-range lens. The experts speak. Frank Diana, TCS: “The future started yesterday and we’re already late” (John Legend). Gray Scott, Futurist: “It is better to err on the side of daring than the side of caution” (Alvin Toffler), Kai Goerlich, SAP: “The future belongs to those who see possibilities before they become obvious.” (Oscar Wilde) Join us for What’s Next for Your Business? Ask A Futurist!
Gray Scott is a New York based futurist, techno philosopher and emerging technology experts. He is the founder and CEO of SeriousWonder.com. Gray is frequently interviewed about the future of emerging technologies by major media outlets including the Discovery Channel, CBS News, Al Jazeera America, FOX News, The Washington Post, Psychology Today, and the New York Post. He is a contributing author of the book THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS, published on June 11, 2015 by Fast Future Publishing.
Kai Goerlich, SAP SE, Research Director and Digital Futures, SAP Marketing. Kai analyzes trends and creates future scenarios to develop thought leadership around society, economy, business and technology. He joined SAP in 1997 and worked several years as a competitive and market analyst for SAP‘s consulting unit. Before SAP Kai worked as a public relations consultant in international PR agencies and as a biologist at universities. He is a member of the Advisory Board for the Corporate Foresight Certification Program at the European Business School in Oestrich-Winkel, Germany.
On June 15th, I participated in an Internet of Things Webcast with CA Technologies. A replay of the event can be found here. The abstract for the session read as follows.
In just a few short years, we’ve moved from being a web-economy to an application economy. One of the underlying reasons are thousands of new Internet of Things (IoT) applications, from manufacturing sensors to medical devices, automobiles to homes. Industry experts predict IoT has the potential for an economic benefit of up to $6.2 trillion by 2025. Are you ready to address the fast-approaching era of hyper-connectivity and voluminous data with your business networks? Do you have a strategy to turn your IoT into sustainable growth opportunities? Do you have the visibility to ensure your network can support these new applications and the flood of data that comes with them?
Join Frank Diana, Futurist and Digital Transformer with Tata Consultancy Services, to learn the new meaning of having an IoT-connected business in the future. He will be joined by Bernard Clairmont, Presales Consultant with CA Technologies, to explain the importance of having a sophisticated network performance management and diagnostic solution to be ready for the future of connectedness.
Like so many emerging innovation accelerators, the Internet of Things will be massively transformative. The time to act is now.
Some in the Futurist community are focused on technology and ethics. Gerd Leonhard has been particularly vocal on the topic. I’ve dedicated a section of my keynote to what I believe will be a growing dialog. I use this slide to pose a question to the audience:
The example provided above comes from Ray Kurzweil, famous Futurist, Inventor and author. In an appearance at last years Exponential Finance conference, Kurzweil said this:
“Our thinking will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking. We’re going to gradually merge and enhance ourselves. In my view, that’s the nature of being human – we transcend our limitations. We’ll be able to extend (our limitations) and think in the cloud. We’re going to put gateways to the cloud in our brains.”
In a recent article by Singularity University co-Founder Peter Diamandis, he presents Kurzweil’s actual prediction:
“In the 2030s,” said Ray, “we are going to send nano-robots into the brain (via capillaries) that will provide full immersion virtual reality from within the nervous system and will connect our neocortex to the cloud. Just like how we can wirelessly expand the power of our smartphones 10,000-fold in the cloud today, we’ll be able to expand our neocortex in the cloud.”
In using this example, the question I pose to an audience is this: if you could do what Ray Kurzweil describes, would you?
More recently, Elon Musk (someone who fears the possibilities of AI) had this to say:
“The solution that seems maybe the best one is to have an AI layer. So think, if you have your limbic system, your cortex, and then a digital layer — sort of a third layer, above the cortex — that could work well and symbiotically with you. Just as your cortex works symbiotically with your limbic system, this digital layer would work symbiotically with the rest of you.”
Musk is reacting to the need to mitigate the risk of humanity becoming a pet to super-intelligence. He sees this neural layer enhancing our ability to process and communicate information. Although the Internet and devices grant us superhuman powers in real time, the constraint is input and output. Musk says we are IO bound – particularly output bound.
So I turn to my Blog audience to ask the same question as above. I’d appreciate you taking the poll below, as it will add your voice to the conversation. Also, feel free to provide detailed thoughts on the ethics discussion in the comments section.
The road to future ecosystems is paved by stakeholder action in the coming decades. These ecosystems support life experiences and have no regard for industry boundaries. Over time, established peer-to-peer relationships lead to value creation and capture for all ecosystem participants. Along the way, value design gets complicated, as multi-stakeholder ecosystems introduce complexity. It is value design that I believe challenges traditional thinking, both in how we view relationships and how we share value. As traditional thinking gives way, the resulting ecosystems have the potential to move towards the collaborative commons described by Jeremy Rifkin.
We are therefore likely to see increased value design activity supported by ecosystem models in the short term, with the competitive battleground shifting to ecosystem versus ecosystem. Market activity is always a clear sign of momentum, and the activity around the Mobility Ecosystem would indicate traction. As several scenarios like the connected car, the driverless car, and the sharing economy converge, this ecosystem begins to form. Various relationship strategies are emerging from major players across the automotive and technology industries. These are the early seeds of competing ecosystems germinating, as the players vie for ecosystem driver status. The breadth and depth of impact is significant, and all players associated with this $2 Trillion industry are affected. This will drive everyone in the cross hairs of this emerging ecosystem to assess their future role, pushing the need for value design and ecosystem modeling onto all stakeholders.
Value design will be fueled by the type of insight depicted in this infographic developed by colleague Kevin Mulcahy: