Driving An Autonomous Vehicle Through The Streets Of London

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

Bill Gates recently drove through the streets of London in an autonomous vehicle and got a front row view of where driving is heading. He describes the scenario in a recent blog post.

That day is coming sooner rather than later. We’ve made tremendous progress on autonomous vehicles, or AVs, in recent years, and I believe we’ll reach a tipping point within the next decade.

Bill Gates

Much as he did when he wrote about artificial intelligence, he believes autonomous vehicles will change transportation as dramatically as the PC changed office work. He states in his blog that right now, we’re close to the tipping point – between levels 2 and 3 of the Society of American Engineers classification system – when cars allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain circumstances. Level 3 use was recently improved in the United States under certain conditions. Advances in sensors and other technologies have accelerated the path – as is the case in practically any scenario we consider. As I recently posted, data is central to these scenarios.

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Data Is The engine That Drives Multiple Scenarios

Frank Diana Big Data, Digital Foundation, Ecosystems, Mobility , , , , ,

Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. The visual below via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.

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Tipping Points Start With Mindset Shifts

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios ,

After ChatGPT was launched, I was asked if I believed it represented a tipping point for artificial intelligence (AI). We are surrounded by hype these days and it is easy to dismiss this as another hype cycle. As I considered my response, I focused first on mindset. The early stage of a tipping point starts with a change in how we perceive the world. Major historical tipping points had this in common – the world as we personally perceived it looked the same day-to-day. Then something happens that causes us to question that world. These mindset shifts are one indicator of a tipping point. A shift in mindsets was therefore the first criteria I assessed in answering the question. Has ChatGPT made AI more real to the casual observer?

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From Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration

Frank Diana Ecosystems , , , , , , ,

I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.

Figure 1: Future Ecosystems

We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.

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Do Time Horizons Mean The Same As They Used To?

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , ,

The timing of future scenarios is something I wrote about back in 2017. In that post, I explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. However, timing is therefore dictated by several factors with many unknowns. The pace, complexity, and uncertainty of our world makes timing extremely difficult to understand. That begs the question: should we think about timing the same way? I often hear the following: I don’t want to focus on something that is ten years out. My response is always the same: how do you know it is only ten years out?

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Ecosystems Emerge From The Shadows

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

My fascination with ecosystems dates back to 2012. By 2014, I was convinced it represented a significant structural change on the horizon. Over a decade later, an ecosystem economy is emerging. A recent book titled The Ecosystem Economy explores the past, present, and future of ecosystems. My thoughts on the topic span multiple posts and were summarized in a post titled A World of Ecosystems.

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Will Virtual Reality Revolutionize Education?

Frank Diana Education, Future Scenarios , , ,

ChatGPT is getting a lot of attention, and one area driving dialog is education. While the attention is warranted, another innovation is quietly making advances. Historically, education has been a bridge between eras – something that I explored in depth here. If you accept that signals point to a transition between eras, then education will be looked at to provide a bridge. But the question that must be answered is this: can education in its current form be that bridge? I maintain that the answer is no. Can that other innovation help? Virtual reality has quietly advanced. This article explores those advances.

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Inventing The World We Can Proudly Leave To Our Kids

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , , ,

I first met Chunka Mui in 2017 after reading his book titled The New Killer Apps. I then had the pleasure of working with him on a thought leadership course, where he contributed to a panel discussion on driverless cars. Post course, he participated in a related Driverless Car Interview which you can view below.

In the fall of last year, Chunka contributed to another book titled A Brief History of a Perfect Future with co-authors Paul Carroll and Tim Andrews. The book is fascinating on several levels. It’s effective use of storytelling helps us envision the world of 2050. Its broad view will resonate with a broad segment of leaders, as it covers a future view of computing, communication, information, genomics, energy, water, transportation, healthcare, climate change, and trust.

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A Global Drop In Life Expectancy

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Health , , , , , , ,

Two future scenarios that I have tracked are healthy life extension and radical life extension. To extend our heathy lives is to ensure that we not only live longer, but we do so in a healthy and productive way. The implications of healthy life extension are wide reaching. When combined with several other societal shifts, we find ourselves moving from a four-segment life cycle to a five-segment life cycle.

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Governments Need A “Digital Twin Division”

Frank Diana Digital Twins , , , ,

I wrote about the expanding possibility space for digital twins earlier this month. One domain that stands to benefit from the use of digital twins is the public domain. Government use of digital twins in the coming years, if pursued, can help leaders prepare for disruptions and disasters. This article – which I authored – was just published by Government Technology Insider. Several scenarios are described, with a vision towards a specific division focused on the possibility space.

The Aftermath: The Last Days Of The Baby Boom

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

I finished reading my latest book titled The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America. I thoroughly enjoyed the book – and not just because I am a boomer. The baby boom began in the middle of 1946 and ended in 1964. The generation drove a rapid expansion of the population – over the 19-year period, 76 million babies were born.

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What The Community Said about Interacting With Lost Loved Ones

Frank Diana Digital Twins , , , , , , , , , ,

In this post from February 2nd, I once again posed the question of interacting with a lost loved one. This scenario is part of a broad digital twins discussion, whether it is a digital version of a lost loved one, or a version of ourselves that lives on forever. In a post from February 2020, I included this video that showed a women reconnecting with her lost daughter virtually (digital twin):

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The Expanding Possibility Space For Digital Twins

Frank Diana Digital Twins , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I have spent the last several months focused on all aspects of digital twins. The maturing of foundational building blocks has expanded their possibility space. Industrial applications are familiar to many, but the breadth of applications are now more visible. If we view digital twins through the lens of possibilities, we can apply them to the various challenges that continue to impact society. Using some of the UN sustainability goals as a guide, and with the help of ChatGPT via a question and answer session, let’s explore the possibilities:

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Tracking How Our Perspectives Change Over Time

Frank Diana Polls , , , , ,

It is interesting to watch perspectives change. In a post last week, I ran a poll exploring a possibility that is expanding: reconnecting with a lost loved one. I ran a similar poll about 1 year ago and launched it again to see if thinking changes with more exposure to possibilities. Please take this quick poll – I will report back on the before and after comparison.

Speaking To Those Who Have Passed

Frank Diana Digital Twins , , , , ,

In early 2020 I wrote a Post about reuniting with a lost loved one. Since that time, the capacity to do so has expanded.

Rememory, the act of talking to the dead, is an idea as old as man himself. For pagans, it was a means of venerating ancestors who had passed. In Christianity, it remains the belief in afterlife through purgatory, heaven, or hell. What used to be science fiction for some and customary beliefs for others has now become a reality, by using the artificial intelligence technology created by DeepBrain AI.

Nana Coupeau – Rememory, The AI that Helps Us Talk to the Dead
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Technology Trends To Watch In 2023

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , ,

The infographic below draws from a recent CB Insights report on eleven Tech Trends To Watch Closely in 2023. As described in the visual, CB Insights used a technology intelligence platform to analyze signals like investment activity, executive chatter in earnings transcripts, media mentions, patents, and more to identify these top eleven trends. A very interesting list with additional detail provided in the report. The invasion of super Apps is an interesting one, as WeChat has long delivered that in the east, but the west has lagged behind. It will be interesting to see if the various obstacles that have prevented its emergence in the west can be overcome. Immortality as a service is not new, but with recent advances and the growing focus of billionaires, it’s easy to see why it made the list.

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Your Future In The New Reality Of The Next Thirty Years

Frank Diana Books , , , , ,

You will have the opportunity and the duty to create a decidedly better world. You will need to develop the wisdom to use this expansive power in advance of receiving it. Your success will decide if the future is a new age of enlightenment or darkness. Experience and maturity alone cannot provide the required wisdom fast enough. You will need to maximize your innate potential to accelerate wisdom.

Ben Lytle – The Potentialist I: Your Future in the New Reality of the Next Thirty Years

That quote is from a book I finished reading. Author Ben Lytle envisions the world of the next thirty years through the lens of human potential and opportunity, versus anxiety and fear. One of the most frequently asked questions I receive involves the human role in an increasingly automated future. The book describes what that world may look like in thirty years. With that vision in place, Mr. Lytle explores our human potential with an eye towards, skills, mindset, health, wealth, and success. The book accomplishes two very important things: it frames the forces that shape a very different future, and it describes a roadmap for us to thrive in that future. A very good read that I have added to my library.

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Digital Twins Are Set For Rapid Adoption In 2023

Frank Diana Digital Twins, innovation accelerators ,

Interest in Digital Twins is ramping, as evidenced by the number of media outlets showing interest in the topic. I have added a number of recent articles to my media library. A very good CNBC article was launched a couple of days ago. It provides a broad view of digital twins and the growing possibility space.

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What Experts See Coming In 2023

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , ,

A recent article provides an overview of how experts think the markets will move, how trends will develop, and which risks and opportunities to watch over the coming 12 months. As usual, Visual Capitalist provides an easy to digest view of 2023 predictions based on analyzing over 500 sources. The article provides details for several of the major squares on the visual – and I recommend the quick read. Thanks to Joanna Lepore for bringing it to my attention. An example of one key take away:

Many of the expert opinions in this year’s database are pointing to inflation easing off as the year progresses. On the downside, few predict that inflation will drop back down to the 2% range that Fed policymakers favor.

Nick Routley – Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2023
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Is There A Future That Does Not Include Us?

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , ,

I finished reading another book titled the Revolt Against Humanity. It explores two strands of thinking – each of which alters the human species. Anthropocene antihumanism considers the end of our species due to climate destruction, while Transhumanism believes that we will birth a new species that is superior to humans. In either scenario, it represents the end of life as we know it. A short read that shines a light on a revolt against humanity that the author claims has already spread beyond the fringes. The Amazon abstract is included below. I have added it to my library.

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