Author: Frank Diana

The World’s Aging Population

Frank Diana Demographics, Societal Factors , , , , ,

Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.

Pablo Alvarez – Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100

That quote from a recent article underscores a series of demographic shifts that play a major role in shaping the future. While science and technology rightfully receive a lot of attention, these societal shifts are just as impactful. That message is resonating, as my recent post on population growth is now my most read post since I started blogging thirteen years ago. These visuals underscore the point (click on the images to open in a new window).

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How Do You Feel About Our Emerging Future?

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future , , , ,

As the media obsesses over artificial intelligence with no shortage of opinions, it made me think about a post from 2016 on techno-optimism versus techno-pessimism. In that post, I defined the terms as follows:

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Soulful: You In The Future Of Artificial Intelligence

Frank Diana Books , , , , , ,

I recently had the opportunity to read a pre-release version of a new book by David Espindola. The timely book – due to launch on May 29 – is titled Soulful: You in the Future of Artificial Intelligence. With the introduction of ChatGPT a few months ago, artificial intelligence is now top of mind. A day doesn’t pass where countless articles explore various aspects of Generative AI. My interaction at events and leadership forums is dominated by the topic. Among the noise are thoughtful voices that provide new insights. David investigates the topic through the lens of multiple domains, including technology, neuroscience, social psychology, economics, philosophy, and theology. I’ve included the book abstract below. You can preorder the book on Amazon. I highly recommend it and have added it to my library.

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Futuristic Technology And The London Marathon

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future, Sports , , , , , , , , , ,

The Daily Mail just launched an article describing futuristic technologies and their role in improving performance and recovery. Reporter Fiona Jackson does a great job of describing various technologies and their impact. I had the pleasure of participating in the article. The article explores:

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Innovation in Sports Continues To Accelerate

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future, Sports , , ,

I had the pleasure of joining the College Rivals team for a discussion about innovation in the sports domain. The Podcast is now available. A description follows below.

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Against The World

Frank Diana History , , , ,

I finished reading another good book. This one focused on a twentieth century topic that has surfaced again – anti-globalism. As readers of my blog know, I believe history informs our view of the future. This book provides yet another example of how our current era mirrors the era of the early 20th century. I described those similarities here. The book’s author, Tara Elizabeth Zahra is an American academic who is a Livingston Professor of East European History at the University of Chicago. She graduated from Swarthmore College and from the University of Michigan with a PhD. The book is titled, Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars.

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The Virtual You

Frank Diana Digital Twins, innovation accelerators , , , , , ,

I have written about digital twins over the past year and participated in several articles describing a future where virtual representations of all things physical are viable. You can explore the topic here. The art of the possible is coming into focus.

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The AI Revolution

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

Jay Anderson, Founder of Project Unity, discusses the AI revolution with Michai Morin, CEO of Coeus Institute. A very timely conversation in light of the growing attention that AI is receiving – attention that is long overdue. Michai made the video available to me in a comment on the LinkedIn poll I launched the other day. The poll has once again received a large response. If you have not already, please respond to this poll.

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Where Is Population Growth Actually Heading?

Frank Diana Demographics, Societal Factors , , , , , ,

Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.

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The Age Of AI

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

The other day I reflected on a future of transportation post via Bill Gates. Today, I am writing about his recent post on the age of AI. Driven by the fascination of ChatGPT, I’ve heard the phrase “The Age of AI” multiple times recently. The launch of ChatGPT made what was lurking beneath the surface visible – the same effect that the pandemic had in making the word “resilience” a critical part of our vocabulary. Artificial intelligence was already on this path, but this recent exposure is making it real for many. I asked this question initially in February 2020: Will Artificial Intelligence be more impactful than fire, electricity, or the Internet? I followed it up with a second poll late in 2022. The community answered in the following way.

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Driving An Autonomous Vehicle Through The Streets Of London

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

Bill Gates recently drove through the streets of London in an autonomous vehicle and got a front row view of where driving is heading. He describes the scenario in a recent blog post.

That day is coming sooner rather than later. We’ve made tremendous progress on autonomous vehicles, or AVs, in recent years, and I believe we’ll reach a tipping point within the next decade.

Bill Gates

Much as he did when he wrote about artificial intelligence, he believes autonomous vehicles will change transportation as dramatically as the PC changed office work. He states in his blog that right now, we’re close to the tipping point – between levels 2 and 3 of the Society of American Engineers classification system – when cars allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain circumstances. Level 3 use was recently improved in the United States under certain conditions. Advances in sensors and other technologies have accelerated the path – as is the case in practically any scenario we consider. As I recently posted, data is central to these scenarios.

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Data Is The engine That Drives Multiple Scenarios

Frank Diana Big Data, Digital Foundation, Ecosystems, Mobility , , , , ,

Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. The visual below via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.

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Tipping Points Start With Mindset Shifts

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios ,

After ChatGPT was launched, I was asked if I believed it represented a tipping point for artificial intelligence (AI). We are surrounded by hype these days and it is easy to dismiss this as another hype cycle. As I considered my response, I focused first on mindset. The early stage of a tipping point starts with a change in how we perceive the world. Major historical tipping points had this in common – the world as we personally perceived it looked the same day-to-day. Then something happens that causes us to question that world. These mindset shifts are one indicator of a tipping point. A shift in mindsets was therefore the first criteria I assessed in answering the question. Has ChatGPT made AI more real to the casual observer?

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From Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration

Frank Diana Ecosystems , , , , , , ,

I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.

Figure 1: Future Ecosystems

We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.

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Do Time Horizons Mean The Same As They Used To?

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , ,

The timing of future scenarios is something I wrote about back in 2017. In that post, I explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. However, timing is therefore dictated by several factors with many unknowns. The pace, complexity, and uncertainty of our world makes timing extremely difficult to understand. That begs the question: should we think about timing the same way? I often hear the following: I don’t want to focus on something that is ten years out. My response is always the same: how do you know it is only ten years out?

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Ecosystems Emerge From The Shadows

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

My fascination with ecosystems dates back to 2012. By 2014, I was convinced it represented a significant structural change on the horizon. Over a decade later, an ecosystem economy is emerging. A recent book titled The Ecosystem Economy explores the past, present, and future of ecosystems. My thoughts on the topic span multiple posts and were summarized in a post titled A World of Ecosystems.

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Will Virtual Reality Revolutionize Education?

Frank Diana Education, Future Scenarios , , ,

ChatGPT is getting a lot of attention, and one area driving dialog is education. While the attention is warranted, another innovation is quietly making advances. Historically, education has been a bridge between eras – something that I explored in depth here. If you accept that signals point to a transition between eras, then education will be looked at to provide a bridge. But the question that must be answered is this: can education in its current form be that bridge? I maintain that the answer is no. Can that other innovation help? Virtual reality has quietly advanced. This article explores those advances.

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Inventing The World We Can Proudly Leave To Our Kids

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , , ,

I first met Chunka Mui in 2017 after reading his book titled The New Killer Apps. I then had the pleasure of working with him on a thought leadership course, where he contributed to a panel discussion on driverless cars. Post course, he participated in a related Driverless Car Interview which you can view below.

In the fall of last year, Chunka contributed to another book titled A Brief History of a Perfect Future with co-authors Paul Carroll and Tim Andrews. The book is fascinating on several levels. It’s effective use of storytelling helps us envision the world of 2050. Its broad view will resonate with a broad segment of leaders, as it covers a future view of computing, communication, information, genomics, energy, water, transportation, healthcare, climate change, and trust.

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A Global Drop In Life Expectancy

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Health , , , , , , ,

Two future scenarios that I have tracked are healthy life extension and radical life extension. To extend our heathy lives is to ensure that we not only live longer, but we do so in a healthy and productive way. The implications of healthy life extension are wide reaching. When combined with several other societal shifts, we find ourselves moving from a four-segment life cycle to a five-segment life cycle.

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Governments Need A “Digital Twin Division”

Frank Diana Digital Twins , , , ,

I wrote about the expanding possibility space for digital twins earlier this month. One domain that stands to benefit from the use of digital twins is the public domain. Government use of digital twins in the coming years, if pursued, can help leaders prepare for disruptions and disasters. This article – which I authored – was just published by Government Technology Insider. Several scenarios are described, with a vision towards a specific division focused on the possibility space.