In an era shaped by accelerating change, convergence across domains, and an ever-expanding possibility space, traditional methods of prediction and planning have become increasingly inadequate. The static nature of scenario planning—once a cornerstone of strategic foresight—fails to keep pace with the velocity and complexity of today’s world. What’s needed instead is a living, breathing approach. One that adapts, evolves, and acts in real time.
(more…)Tag: Ecosystems
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The New Era Of General Purpose Technologies: Why Ecosystems, Not Industries, Will Define The Future
Throughout history, General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) have reshaped economies, industries, and societies, driving profound shifts in how value is created and distributed. Yet, while the transformative nature of GPTs is widely acknowledged, the inevitability of ecosystems as the dominant economic structure of the future is not fully appreciated. Traditional industries, once defined by clear boundaries, will slowly be replaced by interconnected ecosystems where businesses, institutions, and governments collaborate to solve challenges that no single entity or sector can address alone. This shift is not merely a byproduct of technological advancement – it is an economic and structural necessity.
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Polyintelligence: The Fusion Of Nature, Human Ingenuity, And AI
In recent discussions across media, business, and academia, much has been said about the convergence of human and artificial intelligence. This powerful combination is already leading to remarkable discoveries. However, there is another form of intelligence that often goes unrecognized – nature’s intelligence.
A recent article I came across highlights this critical dimension, introducing the concept of polyintelligence – an integrated framework of natural, human, and machine intelligence. The notion that nature itself embodies intelligence, with its ability to learn, adapt, and encode knowledge, aligns closely with the interdisciplinary approach I have long advocated. It also reinforces the need for a lateral, ecosystem-driven perspective – one that transcends silos and embraces holistic thinking.
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Rehearsing The Future: Navigating Complexity With Mimi Brooks
In an age of accelerating change and complexity, leadership requires more than traditional planning – it demands a mindset of rehearsal. This principle framed my recent conversation with Mimi Brooks, CEO of Logical Design Solutions, on her Bold Agendas podcast. Our discussion spanned the evolving role of ecosystems, the dual edges of innovation, and the critical importance of adaptability and resilience. Together, we unpacked strategies for thriving in an unpredictable world and explored the transformational shifts leaders must embrace to navigate 2025 and beyond.
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The Haier Approach: Structurally Aligning Organizations With The Ecosystem Era
A recent article describes an astonishing achievement enabled by an ecosystem mindset. In 2016, Haier, the world’s largest appliance manufacturer headquartered in China, acquired GE Appliances. As author Bill Fotsch states: “What followed was nothing short of astonishing. Market share, which had languished around a mere two percent for the previous four years, skyrocketed to 20 percent. Haier had achieved what GE could not: a resounding success in the appliance market.”
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Unleashing Artificial Intelligence As A General-Purpose Technology
In our era of rapid technological transformation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands on the brink of becoming a powerful general-purpose technology (GPT) akin to electricity or the steam engine. These foundational technologies fundamentally reshape industries and redefine society by following an evolutionary trajectory that moves from small improvements to system-level change. History shows us that realizing the full potential of GPTs demands both an understanding of their progressive phases and a forward-thinking mindset, especially to avoid the productivity lags that have plagued previous technological revolutions.
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Return On Learning: Pioneering The Future
In the preceding four-part series, I explored the convergence of knowledge, invention, and societal transitions, tracing the democratization of knowledge from the dawn of language to the present day. The series examined how pivotal inventions have expanded human capabilities and transformed civilization, while also considering how today’s accelerating pace of scientific and technological advances is creating an expanding space of opportunities and challenges. As we stand on the threshold of a new age of invention, potentially more profound than past eras, the series emphasized how organizations can adapt, build resilience, and thrive. Building on these key themes, this post shifts focus to Return on Learning (ROL), a crucial concept that equips organizations to navigate this evolving landscape. By prioritizing learning, leaders can proactively shape the future and ensure long-term success in an era of rapid transformation.
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Unlocking Human Potential – Thriving In A World Of Change
This series concludes by examining what it takes to thrive in the era shaped by the forces of knowledge (part one), invention (part two), and the second scientific revolution (part three). As these transformative forces unfold, organizations and societies must go beyond mere adaptation and learn to flourish amidst constant change. This section delves into the essential capabilities and strategies needed to navigate and actively shape our collective future in this new era of unparalleled opportunities and challenges.
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Beyond the Silo: How Exploding Possibilities Are Fueling the Rise of Horizontal Ecosystems
The second industrial revolution ushered in an era of vertical integration, where companies built empires within clearly defined industries. Today, however, a new revolution is upon us – one driven by an explosion in the possibility space. Scientific and technological advancements are happening at an unprecedented pace, blurring the lines between disciplines and creating opportunities that transcend traditional industry boundaries. This is giving rise to a fascinating phenomenon: horizontal ecosystems.
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From Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration
I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
Figure 1: Future Ecosystems We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
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Ecosystem Enabling Ways Of Organizing
Building blocks. We know they exist in the form of science and technology innovation, but they also exist in various geopolitical, economic, societal, philosophical, and environmental forces. It was 2014 when I read a report via John Hagel on combinations and disruption. Fast forward several years and discussions of composability have elevated to organization design. I recently moderated a CEO Roundtable titled “Envisioning Possible Futures.” In that discussion, enabling the edge of our organizations was discussed in an indirect manner. Without using the words, CEOs were challenging current command and control structures. I heard phrases like sense and respond for the first time in that type of leadership setting.
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Why Ecosystems? Why Now?
For at least seven years, the concept of ecosystems has been discussed and defined in various ways, while sometimes applied in a context that dilutes its eventual impact. At the highest level, an ecosystem is a network of connected stakeholders interacting in ways that create and capture value for all participants. Why has this ecosystem phenomenon emerged now and why do people expect it to drive structural change? Once again, history may provide an answer.
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Ecosystem Leadership
In today’s world, the most effective CEOs recognize that no one is an island: no CEO, no company, no industry, no country. The lines have permanently blurred, and chief executives must embrace the opportunity to help shape our shared future — as enterprise leaders who are moving across and beyond — to influence entire ecosystems
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The Journey: A World Of Ecosystems
In a continuation of my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will describe how convergence across multiple forces likely changes the organizing system of society. The focus of the post is on one element of this change: the way value is created and captured in the future. The post picks up from the last, where I explored the next phase of human development. The well-being discussion from that post flows naturally into a discussion about our life experiences. Those experiences will increasingly be enabled by ecosystems.
A WORLD OF ECOSYSTEMS
Yogi Berra is credited with saying that the future ain’t what it used to be. What a perfect way to describe a phase transition that completely changes the way we think about the future. In an earlier series post, I described the complexity, volatility, and uncertainty associated with envisioning possible futures. Indeed, the experimentation we often talk about in the context of innovation also applies to the future. While running for president in 1932 during the depths of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt remarked:
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The Journey: The Next Phase Of Human Development
In a continuation of my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will touch on the next phase of human development. The post picks up from the last one where I explored two historical paths of innovation. To this point in our story about the future, we have explored the past, identified signals that may help us understand the future, and applied that learning in a way that helps us envision it. In telling this story, a common reaction is split between fear and fascination. Indeed, both reactions are human responses we must consider when gazing into the future. In truth, we are part optimist and part pessimist. I explored that sentiment in a poll dating back to 2016. In that poll, 44% identified as optimists, 16% as pessimist, and 38% were somewhere in the middle. What do you think?
In this segment, I will view the future through the lens of fascination and optimism.
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The Purpose-Driven Corporation
I’ve had the pleasure of facilitating a CEO roundtable each of the last four years at the CEO of the year gala sponsored by Chief Executive Group. The 2021 winner was Merck’s Ken Frazier. This year, the roundtable explored the growing shift towards purpose. Specifically, the roundtable Topic was: “Purpose-driven: Implications for Strategy and Cross-Industry Collaboration”.
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Ecosystem Business Strategy
I recently added a book to my library titled Winning the Right Game. I then had the pleasure of talking to the book’s author, Dr. Ron Adner. He was gracious enough to sit for an interview, which you can view below. This ecosystem topic is growing in importance, but success in a growing ecosystem world is not easy. Dr. Adner provides his thoughts on what it takes to succeed. Anyone exploring ecosystem business strategies will benefit from his advice.
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Winning The Right Game
My belief in a shifting organizing system dates back several years. The work of leading think tank RethinkX effectively highlights why. History tells us that a collapse is inevitable when the existing system can no longer adapt fast enough to order-of-magnitude improvement in technological capabilities. When this condition is present, a new organizing system is required. RethinkX defines an organizing system as:
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The Building Blocks Of Our Future
In a post from 2019, I described the building blocks that established our modern society. It was convergence across multiple domains that shaped our current world. From the post:
A century ago, a convergence across domains ushered in unprecedented advancements in human development. As Robert J. Gordon describes, the special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what Mr. Gordon calls the great inventions. The great inventions of the second industrial revolution significantly improved our well-being. In his view, the economic revolution of 1870-1970 was unique in human history, unrepeatable because many of its achievements could only happen once. What makes this century so special, is that these inventions altered what until then, was a life lived in misery.
Frank Diana – ConvergenceI captured many of those building blocks in a visual that I use to tell this story (click on the visual to open in a separate window).
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Inside the Next Transition 