Future

Do Time Horizons Mean The Same As They Used To?

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , ,

The timing of future scenarios is something I wrote about back in 2017. In that post, I explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. However, timing is therefore dictated by several factors with many unknowns. The pace, complexity, and uncertainty of our world makes timing extremely difficult to understand. That begs the question: should we think about timing the same way? I often hear the following: I don’t want to focus on something that is ten years out. My response is always the same: how do you know it is only ten years out?

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Your Future In The New Reality Of The Next Thirty Years

Frank Diana Books , , , , ,

You will have the opportunity and the duty to create a decidedly better world. You will need to develop the wisdom to use this expansive power in advance of receiving it. Your success will decide if the future is a new age of enlightenment or darkness. Experience and maturity alone cannot provide the required wisdom fast enough. You will need to maximize your innate potential to accelerate wisdom.

Ben Lytle – The Potentialist I: Your Future in the New Reality of the Next Thirty Years

That quote is from a book I finished reading. Author Ben Lytle envisions the world of the next thirty years through the lens of human potential and opportunity, versus anxiety and fear. One of the most frequently asked questions I receive involves the human role in an increasingly automated future. The book describes what that world may look like in thirty years. With that vision in place, Mr. Lytle explores our human potential with an eye towards, skills, mindset, health, wealth, and success. The book accomplishes two very important things: it frames the forces that shape a very different future, and it describes a roadmap for us to thrive in that future. A very good read that I have added to my library.

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The Future-Facing CFO

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Our Emerging Future , ,

I recently participated in a CFO and Board retreat hosted by the Criticaleye peer-to-peer Board Community. I opened the session with a keynote and a Q&A session. Dialog from the session was captured in an article that was recently launched. The key points include:

  • One of the critical skillsets of a future-facing CFO is an ability to unlearn
  • Foresight means nothing if it can’t inform strategies
  • The job of leaders is to envision possible futures
  • It’s never been more important to take the future seriously in terms of the speed at which its coming towards us

It is encouraging the see the emphasis placed on understanding possible futures. That appreciation was ramping pre-pandemic and has accelerated since.

The Next Decade In Technology

Frank Diana Future Scenarios , , , ,

I was recently made aware of a report via OMG Futures on the next decade in technology. Recommended reading for anyone looking to scan the horizon. Thanks to Phil Rowley for making me aware of it. Phil described it this way:

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Future Focus: Envisioning The Possibilities Ahead

Frank Diana Future Scenarios , , , ,

Every year in October I have the pleasure of participating in the CEO of the Year Gala sponsored by Chief Executive Group. This year’s winner was Marc Benioff, CEO of Salesforce. His acceptance speech was both refreshing and inspiring – as was the moderated discussion he had with last year’s winner, Ken Frazier, former CEO of Merck. As part of the event, I participate in a CEO roundtable discussion with a theme that I help shape. The theme this year was envisioning possible futures. It was a great conversation captured in this article that was just launched by Chief Executive Group. I highly recommend this read. The article provides a view into what CEOs are thinking – with a series of quotes from the session – like the one below.

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Exploring Possible Economic Futures

Frank Diana Books, Economics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , ,

In the interest of exploring possible economic futures, I have read books on Modern Monetary Theory, Zero Marginal Cost, The Job Guarantee, and several others. Add to the list the most recent book I finished, How Capitalism Ends. Viewed through the lens of property rights, wealth, and the transition from Feudalism to Capitalism, author Steve Paxton uses an effective method of storytelling: start with history and then explore possible futures. The book is setup by two thesis: the development and the primacy thesis. What he describes helps us understand the “why” behind the future that is emerging.

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Scenario Planning Thoughts From Futurist Peter Schwartz

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , ,

Are you curious, imaginative, and collaborative? If so, you have what it takes to be a scenario planner. This brilliant video via Peter Schwartz is a must see.

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The Final Stages Of The Fourth Turning

Frank Diana Books, Our Emerging Future , ,

It was 2019 when I finished a book titled The Fourth Turning. I found myself referring to it a couple of weeks ago during a conversation about the cycles of history. I went back to the book after our discussion given the many changes the world experienced since I added it to my library. The repeated cycles of history described by the book remain both fascinating and ominous.

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What Role Did Geography Play In The Past – And What Does It Mean For The Future?

Frank Diana History, Our Emerging Future , , ,

Another recent article explores the factors that drove civilization success. The article – along with a number of recent books – looks for historical signals that aid in our understanding of the future. In this case, the focus is geography, which the article positions as the reason both individuals and civilizations are the way they are today. If history informs our views of possible futures, then according to the article, geography has influenced history more than any other factor. The author uses Japan as an example.

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A Reimagining The Future Presentation

Frank Diana Future Scenarios , , , ,

I have the pleasure of speaking in various forums about the future. It is a fascinating time to be focused on illuminating the path forward, as the pace, uncertainty, and complexity of our times makes it very challenging. This short three-minute video describes my reimagining the future presentation.

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The Journey Of Humanity

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , ,

Since the dawn of the nineteenth century, a split second compared to the span of human existence, life expectancy has more than doubled, and per capita incomes have soared twenty-fold in the most developed regions of the world, and fourteen-fold on Planet Earth as a whole

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A Focus On “What If?” Versus “What Now?”

Frank Diana Future Scenarios ,

A quote from a recent book The Genesis Machine captures the importance of focusing on the future. “If we encourage ‘what if?’ questions today, we can avoid ‘what now?’ questions in the future.” As far as I am concerned, that quote says it all. Rehearsing the future is complex, given the uncertainty and volatility of the environment. Signals emerge from multiple domains, and they converge in ways that shape futures. As we identify signals, ‘what if?’ questions help us explore the possibilities.

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The Future Of Mobility

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Our Emerging Future , , , , ,

In one of my posts from a recent series titled A Journey through the Looking Glass, I focused on the complexity, uncertainty, and volatility of our current environment. Although this dynamic makes it difficult to envision possible futures, the “Future of” question is a growing focus among leaders around the world. While many themes have emerged, mobility is a common topic of discussion. Current conversations are dominated by electric vehicles, batteries, and charging infrastructure. However, the future of mobility is much bigger than our current focus.

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The Journey: Living In Times Of Transition

Frank Diana My Book , , , , , , , , , , ,

In the wrap-up to my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will cover why this story is so important to me personally. As was described throughout the series, we live in a time of considerable change. A period that in my view only has a few historical precedents. I could be completely wrong, as I am not a believer in prediction – but the risk is too high to ignore. Through the years, as I have told versions of this story, I sensed that my audience felt no compelling reason to act. They had low levels of urgency when compared to challenges they faced day-to-day. It was that lack of urgency that pushed me towards more effective storytelling to change perception.

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The Journey: Dual Paths Of Innovation

Frank Diana My Book , , , , , , , , ,

In a continuation of my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will touch on two historical paths of innovation. The post picks up from the last one where I explored the building blocks of the future.

THE DUAL PATHS OF INNOVATION

Two major forces are likely to converge in very unpredictable ways. First, the road to abundance described by Peter Diamandis promises to advance our human development in ways not previously thought possible. At the same time, our journey will face several unintended consequences. The intersection of these two forces underscores the importance of focusing on emerging scenarios now, thus enabling human development and mitigating the risk of these unintended consequences.

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The Journey: Our Complex, Uncertain, And Volatile Future

Frank Diana My Book , , , ,

My previous posts launched a series that will tell the full story of a reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a series description and a look back in time. The series continues, with each post featuring a piece of our journey. We explored the potential for a phase transition in the last post. In this post, I will now explore the complexity, volatility, and uncertainty that inhibits our ability to envision the future.

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The Journey: An Historical Perspective

Frank Diana My Book , , , , , , , , , ,

My previous post launched a series that will tell the full story of my reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a description of the series title and a look backward in time. This second post in the series will add to that historical perspective. Each subsequent post will feature a piece of our journey.  

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A Journey Through The Looking Glass

Frank Diana My Book , , , ,

In the last ten years, as my focus expanded, a story about the future emerged. If I were to write a book to capture that story, I would call it A Journey through the Looking Glass (like the name of the leadership course I developed in 2017). My presentations are the vehicle for this type of storytelling, while my Blog captures the story in pieces. Now, as we find ourselves in the early stages of a transformative decade, I feel compelled to pull the pieces together through the written word as well. My next several posts will be dedicated to telling this story. Here are the other posts in the series to date:

Second Post: An Historical Perspective

Third Post : A Growth Of Knowledge

Fourth Post: Our Current World Order

Fifth Post: Convergence Drives Human Advancement

Sixth Post: Catalysts Of The Past And Those On The Horizon

Seventh Post: A Phase Transition

Eight Post: Our Complex, Uncertain, And Volatile Future

Ninth Post: The Building Blocks Of The Future

Tenth Post: Dual Paths Of Innovation

Eleventh Post: The Next Phase Of Human Development

Twelfth Post: The Journey: A World Of Ecosystems

Thirteenth Post: A Great Reset

Conclusion: Living In Times Of Transition

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Signals To Watch for In 2022

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , , ,

Understanding possible futures is all about signals – and there is no shortage of them. A dominant conversation these days is focused on how to sense these signals, derive foresight, and respond. While foresight helps us see possible futures, the next challenge is moving from a high degree of uncertainty to some level of actionable certainty. That step in the process is a combination of science and art. Signals manifest themselves through the current and emerging building blocks that shape our future – and they are coming at us from every corner of society. Since I don’t believe in prediction, I will focus my year-end post on signals to look for in 2022 across four key areas.

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The Changing World Order

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , , ,

Ray Dalio is the Co-Chief Investment Officer & Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, In making decisions, he has found history to be very instructive. This is a recurring theme that I write about often, as I view history as a key source of signals. I’ve included links that explore these signals below. In exploring possible futures, it is helpful to understand the patterns of history – and they really do rhyme. In the book The Fourth Turning, the authors describe what the cycles of history tells us about our next rendezvous with destiny. What intrigued me as a Futurist is the claim by the books authors that our past can indeed predict our future – it’s a compelling argument when viewed through the lens of these historical cycles.

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