Over the last several weeks, I launched a new weekly LinkedIn newsletter called Inside the Next Transition. The response has been encouraging, and I wanted to share it here with my blog audience as well. This blog will remain my primary home for deeper reflections, research-driven pieces, and the broader body of work I have been developing around history, systemic change, convergence, and Possibility Chains. That will not change.
(more…)Tag: General Purpose Technology
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AI May Be Two Engines At Once
In the last edition, I explored how we know when change becomes systemic. The answer is not found in the speed of one trend, but in the spread of pressure across domains. When science, technology, society, geopolitics, economics, philosophy, and the environment begin moving together, change stops behaving like a set of separate disruptions and begins to look like transition.
That raises the next question: what makes some technologies powerful enough to accelerate that kind of transition?
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The Three Drivers That Push Civilizations Across Thresholds
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The earlier posts introduced the sense that the world’s operating logic is beginning to shift, explored what compression feels like in daily life, and laid out the four-stage pattern that has shaped every major transition in history. Post Four explained why those transitions do not come from singular breakthroughs but from the interaction of multiple domains moving together. Before we can measure that interaction in today’s world, we need to understand the deeper forces that give convergence its power. These forces have shaped every civilizational transition across the long arc of history. They determine when pressure accumulates, how tightly systems couple, and what pushes society toward a threshold. -
When Systems Turn Over
This post marks the beginning of a new series on systemic change — an exploration of how civilizations transform at the deepest level. Over the coming weeks, we’ll trace the rhythm of history, examine the forces that drive reordering, and explore why this moment may be the first time in history when every domain of human life is active at once. Each post will build on the last, revealing how science, technology, society, geopolitics, economics, philosophy, and the environment are converging toward a new operating logic for civilization.
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When Systems Shift: The Rare Alignment Driving Change Today
History is filled with moments of disruption and reform. But true systemic change – when the very foundations of society are redefined – has been rare. These periods of profound transition are not triggered by short-term trends. They emerge when multiple deep forces move in tandem, setting in motion the restructuring of the societal platform itself.
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Book Review: Technology And The Rise of Great Powers By Jeffrey Ding
Why Diffusion, Not Invention, Determines Who Leads in the Age of Transformative Technologies
In an era obsessed with technological “firsts,” Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers delivers a counterintuitive revelation: the nations that dominate the future won’t necessarily be those that invent the most, but rather those that diffuse innovations the fastest. By shifting the spotlight from invention to diffusion, Ding fundamentally reframes the debate on global competitiveness – with profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and societies.
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The Fastest Tech Transition In History: How Businesses And Governments Can Lead Or Lag
Historically, the diffusion of transformative technologies has been constrained by institutional inertia, workforce adaptation, and the challenge of transferring tacit, hands-on expertise. As a result, decades often separated invention from widespread adoption. Today, however, powerful General Purpose Technologies – artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and synthetic biology – may defy that pattern, diffusing faster than ever. What makes this era different, and how should businesses and governments respond?
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The Next Phase Of Power Transitions
My latest series of posts are driven by what I believe are two of the biggest forces that ultimately determine our future: General Purpose Technologies and geopolitical dynamics. In a previous post, I described the role of Necessity, Invention and Convergence in driving the diffusion of general purpose technologies. Necessity drives invention, but true trasitions occur when necessity and invention converge across industries, economies, and societies. However, as technological competition accelerates, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), a deeper question emerges: What determines the diffusion of transformative technologies, and how does that shape global power dynamics?
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The New Era Of General Purpose Technologies: Why Ecosystems, Not Industries, Will Define The Future
Throughout history, General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) have reshaped economies, industries, and societies, driving profound shifts in how value is created and distributed. Yet, while the transformative nature of GPTs is widely acknowledged, the inevitability of ecosystems as the dominant economic structure of the future is not fully appreciated. Traditional industries, once defined by clear boundaries, will slowly be replaced by interconnected ecosystems where businesses, institutions, and governments collaborate to solve challenges that no single entity or sector can address alone. This shift is not merely a byproduct of technological advancement – it is an economic and structural necessity.
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When General-Purpose Technologies Intersect With Necessity, Invention, And Convergence
History teaches us that transformative technologies do not emerge in isolation, nor do they reshape the world overnight. Instead, they follow a discernible pattern – an evolutionary journey that unfolds in response to human needs. Two phenomena help us understand this journey: the Evolutionary Phases of General-Purpose Technologies (GPTs) and the role of necessity, invention, and convergence (NIC). When viewed together, they provide a powerful lens for understanding not just how technologies evolve, but why they emerge and when they reach their full potential.
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The Evolution Of AI Perception: From Skepticism To Conviction
In 2021, I conducted a poll to gauge public sentiment on the transformative potential of artificial intelligence. I posed a bold question: Will AI be more impactful than prior general-purpose technologies like fire, the printing press, the steam engine, and electricity? Respondents had three choices: Yes, No, and Too Early to Tell. The results reflected a world still grappling with AI’s potential—40% answered Yes, 26% No, and 34% felt it was Too Early to Tell.
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The General-Purpose Technology Evolution Framework
General purpose technologies, from the steam engine to electricity, have historically followed a predictable evolutionary path. Each GPT begins at the status quo, disrupting established ways of operating. Next, it moves to point solutions, where its application enhances specific areas without fundamentally transforming broader systems. Over time, these point solutions give way to broader applications, where the technology begins to reshape processes on a larger scale. Finally, the journey culminates in system-level change, where the technology redefines the way society, industries, and systems function as a whole.
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Unleashing Artificial Intelligence As A General-Purpose Technology
In our era of rapid technological transformation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands on the brink of becoming a powerful general-purpose technology (GPT) akin to electricity or the steam engine. These foundational technologies fundamentally reshape industries and redefine society by following an evolutionary trajectory that moves from small improvements to system-level change. History shows us that realizing the full potential of GPTs demands both an understanding of their progressive phases and a forward-thinking mindset, especially to avoid the productivity lags that have plagued previous technological revolutions.
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Inside the Next Transition 