Robert J. Gordon

The Journey: The Next Phase Of Human Development

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In a continuation of my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will touch on the next phase of human development. The post picks up from the last one where I explored two historical paths of innovation. To this point in our story about the future, we have explored the past, identified signals that may help us understand the future, and applied that learning in a way that helps us envision it. In telling this story, a common reaction is split between fear and fascination. Indeed, both reactions are human responses we must consider when gazing into the future. In truth, we are part optimist and part pessimist. I explored that sentiment in a poll dating back to 2016. In that poll, 44% identified as optimists, 16% as pessimist, and 38% were somewhere in the middle. What do you think?

In this segment, I will view the future through the lens of fascination and optimism.

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The Journey: Catalysts Of The Past And Those On The Horizon

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My previous posts launched a series that will tell the full story of a reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a series description and a look back in time. The series continues, with each post featuring a piece of our journey. We explored the role that convergence plays in advancing human development in the last post. In this post, I will now shift gears and focus on the catalysts that drive convergence.

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The Journey: Convergence Drives Human Advancement

Frank Diana My Book , , , , , ,

My previous posts launched a series that will tell the full story of a reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a series description and a look back in time. The series continues, with each post featuring a piece of our journey. We explored the beginning of the most recent historical cycle in the last post. In this post, I will now shift gears and focus on the future. That focus begins at the heart of the story – convergence.

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The Building Blocks Of Our Future

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In a post from 2019, I described the building blocks that established our modern society. It was convergence across multiple domains that shaped our current world. From the post:

A century ago, a convergence across domains ushered in unprecedented advancements in human development. As Robert J. Gordon describes, the special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what Mr. Gordon calls the great inventions. The great inventions of the second industrial revolution significantly improved our well-being. In his view, the economic revolution of 1870-1970 was unique in human history, unrepeatable because many of its achievements could only happen once. What makes this century so special, is that these inventions altered what until then, was a life lived in misery. 

Frank Diana – Convergence

I captured many of those building blocks in a visual that I use to tell this story (click on the visual to open in a separate window).

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Longevity Escape Velocity

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Google’s head of engineering, innovator and futurist Ray Kurzweil often discusses the concept of longevity escape velocity; or the point at which science can extend your life for more than a year for every year that you are alive. Kurzweil believes we are much closer than you might think. In fact, he believes we are just another 10 to 12 years away from the point that the general public will hit this longevity escape velocity.

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Revolution and the Innovation wheel

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In a brilliant journey through the economic history of the western world, author Robert J. Gordon looks at The Rise and Fall of American Growth. This recent book focuses on a revolutionary century that impacted the American standard of living more than any period before or after. Our standard of living is typically viewed as the ratio of total production of goods and services (real GDP) per member of the population. But this measure fails to truly capture enhancements to our well-being. Human well-being is influenced by advances in the areas of food, clothing, shelter, energy, transport, education, health, work, information, entertainment, and communications. The special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what the author calls the great inventions. Clearly – as the visual I developed depicts – the great inventions of the second industrial revolution significantly improved our well-being:

Second Revolution Innovation Wheel

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Techno-Optimist or Techno-Pessimist?

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the-revolutions

A recent book by Robert J. Gordon titled The Rise and Fall of American Growth shines a light on technological innovation and its past and future impact on growth. The premise of the book is that the innovations of the special century (1870 – 1970) cannot be replicated. As such, the author does not envision a return to growth for America (hence the title). The book is very well written, and I will touch on aspects of it in future posts. For this post, I’d like to gauge the reader’s level of optimism or pessimism.

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