Learning from History

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When presenting a story of possible futures, I always start with a short journey through the past. The past represents a possible window to the future. Major events throughout history have brought out the best and the worst of humanity. Leaders have emerged in the most difficult of times – and tyrants have as well. A recent book by Alan Greenspan and Adrian Wooldridge explores the history of Capitalism in America. Robert J. Gordon took a similar journey in his highly acclaimed book titled The Rise and Fall of American Growth. Whereas the authors of Capitalism in America explore the full American journey, Mr. Gordon focuses on what he considers a special century: 1870-1970. Both books highlight the astounding innovation that occurred in the late part of the 19th century and the early part of the 20th. These innovations improved our standard of living, while the major societal forces of that era (World War One, The Great Depression, and World War Two) presented many challenges.  

This combination of breath-taking innovation and societal forces were catalysts that drove action. In order to visualize just how much was happening during this period, I created the visual below (click on it to enlarge it). Focusing on the special century, I’ve used the sitting U.S. President as the anchor. Look at the dizzying amount of technological, scientific, political, societal, and economic activity occurring. It was the convergence across these domains that had Mr. Gordon state that we will never see another period like this again. The catalysts in his eyes could only occur once (e.g. electricity is only invented once).

Great decisions that took courage were made – but many mistakes were made as well. Look closely at the consequences of the catalysts from that era. Faced with the fear of nuclear annihilation, new entities were established. Forced to reconstruct after World War Two, the world came together to rebuild Europe.  Here is what I see when I put this historical view next to current events: history might be repeating itself. The catalysts this time are the speed and scale of innovation, the emergence of new general-purpose technology, the progression of biotechnology, the societal impact of these advances, and the unintended consequences that are likely spawned. As we watch what is likely a reoccurrence of a world-altering level of convergence, one can only hope that we learn from history. Channel what we got right and avoid what we got wrong. For me, seeing it visually underscores just how critical it will be for leaders to lead. 

This is my last post of the year. I believe 2019 will bring a greater acceleration of both break-through innovation and change. As we approach the new year, I hope for a year of dialog and the conviction to tackle the challenges that lie ahead. Happy New Year!

a journey through american history

32 thoughts on “Learning from History”

  15. […] However, global thinkers are asked to provide their views in times of crisis, and a perspective on a post-pandemic society is no exception. This recent Article provides a view from twelve different global thinkers, and while relying on the opinions of individuals informs us, history provides a lens that may be very instructive. In The Fourth Turning, the author describes the cycles of history, where each piece of the cycle is approximately 20 years in duration – adding up to a long life of 80 years. The book illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. It offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how the past will predict the future. Considering the headwinds that we face as a society; the book predicted a crisis that reshapes the social order prior to 2030 – much like it has throughout history. So before I summarize the predictions in the article, I want to look back one hundred years to see if there is something to be Learned from History. […]

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  16. […] However, global thinkers are asked to provide their views in times of crisis, and a perspective on a post-pandemic society is no exception. This recent Article provides a view from twelve different global thinkers, and while relying on the opinions of individuals informs us, history provides a lens that may be very instructive. In The Fourth Turning, the author describes the cycles of history, where each piece of the cycle is approximately 20 years in duration – adding up to a long life of 80 years. The book illuminates the past, explains the present, and reimagines the future. It offers an utterly persuasive prophecy about how the past will predict the future. Considering the headwinds that we face as a society; the book predicted a crisis that reshapes the social order prior to 2030 – much like it has throughout history. So before I summarize the predictions in the article, I want to look back one hundred years to see if there is something to be Learned from History. […]

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  19. […] For those of us alive today, our core beliefs, the way we live, and our notion of work are rooted in the way it has been for the last 250 years. To us, it has always been this way. When a transformative era emerges, we struggle to imagine a different way of doing things – even when the emerging future is begging us to think differently. One great example lies in the future of work. As we struggle to envision a world where work is no longer required, we fail to realize that History is very Instructive. […]

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  21. […] History is therefore indeed instructive. The authors do a great job of weaving history into their perspective, and in troubling ways, as every leading civilization has followed this path to collapse.  This is what we face as a society. We will continue in our efforts to force an antiquated organizing system on top of a new system of production. Will Catalysts emerge to reverse this historical response? Can we appreciate our man-made constructs for what they are – variables not constants? For a deeper look into these questions, I highly recommend the book. I’ll close with this from the authors: […]

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  27. […] Conversations about work take many forms these days. Is remote work here to stay? What will a hybrid work model look like? Will we need to work in the future? In the short term, the pandemic has driven a focus on different models of working. In the long term, the polarized discussion centers on the impact of automation. That discussion is explored in incredible detail in a recent book titled Work: A Deep History, from the Stone Age to the Age of Robots. Anthropologist and author James Suzman sets out to answer several questions. He does so by looking at the history of work and the lessons we can learn. […]

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