In early 2019, I described the Three Focus Themes for the year. They were Acceleration, Convergence, and Possibilities. Little did I know that one of those themes would factor so prominently in 2020. In a recent Presentation, Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas – a full-service, bipartisan government relations firm – describes 2020 as the year where forces already in play experience a great acceleration. One of those forces is mixed reality.Continue reading
In exploring a Post Pandemic Society, I first took a look at what we could learn from history. A recent article took a similar view. Written by Kevin Sneader and Shubham Singhal, Their Look Back at History explores the experience of Japan, the United States, and Western Europe, post-World War Two. The article explores the inclusive growth that was sustained for two decades following the war. As technologies developed for war were adapted for peace-time use, poverty, government debt, and inequality fell, while living standards improved and prosperity spread broadly.
Last week. I posted about modern monetary theory (MMT) and how it challenges conventional wisdom regarding deficits. In her recent book titled The Deficit Myth , Author Stephanie Kelton – Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University – explores the tenets of the theory and its implications to government spending. Progressive agendas aimed at solving the challenges of education, healthcare, climate change and others look at modern monetary theory as a possible solution. In contrast to borrowing money or raising taxes, the monetisation of government expenditure (its financing by the central bank’s creation of money) is costless, in that the government does not have to pay interest on cash.
The attention garnered by MMT has drawn its share of critics. In the interest of understanding both sides of this debate, I read a book titled Modern Monetary Theory and its Critics. The book is a series of essays edited by Edward Fullbrook and Jamie Morgan. As the authors state: in the wake of the decade of fiscal austerity following the Global Financial Crisis, and the apparent exhaustion of standard monetary policy strategies and the ever-increasing income disparity, interest in MMT has grown beyond academia. The skeptics provide a different point of view. As we search for answers to our pressing issues and strive to think differently, it’s prudent that we keep an open mind to these new ways of thinking, while at the same time, understanding their limitations. I recommend the book, which I have added to my Book Library.
I wrapped up another great book. This one focused on government deficits as viewed through the lens of Modern Monetary Theory. Author Stephanie Kelton addresses the topic in her recent book titled The Deficit Myth. In this best seller, Ms. Kelton – Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Stony Brook University – explores the role of currency issuers (U.S., Japan, U.K., Australia, etc.) versus currency users. From the book:
“The distinction between currency users and the currency issuer lies at the heart of Modern Monetary Theory. And as we will see in the pages ahead, it has profound implications for some of the most important policy debates of our time, such as health care, climate change, Social Security, international trade, and inequality.”
The final polls from our virtual roundtable hosted by C-Level are included below. You can view a video of the virtual roundtable Here. I posted the results of polls One, Two, Three, and Four earlier. You can participate in those polls by visiting the posts. The fifth and sixth polls launched during the session probed the questions of digital learning and the resilience of supply chains.
COVID-19 continues to expose pre-existing issues. While our human development has undeniably advanced through each phase of the industrial revolution, more work remains to be done. The first industrial revolution delivered mechanization – and yet 600 million people still do not benefit from it. The second revolution brought us sanitation, clean water, and electricity, and yet 3.6 billion people still lack one or more of those innovations. The third revolution brought us the internet and all things digital – and yet 3.7 billion people do not have access to the Internet. This Article by Douglas Broom states that the majority live in poorer countries, where the need to spread information about how to combat COVID-19 is most urgent. The issue was there, now it is likely to get more attention.
This recent Article describes those things that will change forever according to 30 top experts. Before I dive into that, a significant word of caution. In an Article authored by Rob Walker, he states that most post-pandemic predictions will be totally wrong. While he stresses that thoughtful speculation about the future helps us cope with the present and identify potential challenges and opportunities, history tells us that most predictions will be wrong. In looking back at predictions post 9/11 and the great recession, Mr. Walker provides supporting evidence for this statement.
The COVID-19 crisis is fast-moving with information bombarding us in real-time. On this Tuesday morning, as we awake to more isolation and rising numbers, there is much to consider across every domain. Some like Enrique Dans are writing about the changes coming to Education. Issues like a drop in school attendance, obsolescence of teaching methods, technology barriers of entry to education, and an aversion to face-to-face interaction are likely to change education as we know it. As it is with every domain, institutions, academic directors, teachers or students who are unable to adapt will simply have no place in this new scenario. As a new normal emerges, educators are likely to revise their teaching methods and evaluation approaches, among other things.
It was late 2013 and I was thinking about the transformation that digital would eventually drive. In a Series of Posts on transformation, I laid out my early thinking about forcing functions and related enablers. One of those enablers was Thinking Differently. In this Article authored by Jeff Haden, he describes the viewpoints of best-selling author Simon Sinek:
“These are not unprecedented times. There are many cases — lists of cases — where change, or something unexpected, has put many companies out of business, and made other companies come out stronger and reinvent themselves. The invention of the Internet put many, many companies out of business. The ones who could not reinvent themselves for the Internet age but rather doubled down on the old way they did business.”
I had the pleasure of discussing the future of education recently with Nick Burnett, Co-Founder of LearnTech Lab. Their mission is focused on a topic that I find critical to the future of society. From their website:
OUR MISSION IS TO CONNECT THE IDEAS, PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES WITH THE SCHOOLS WHO ARE REIMAGINING THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION.
They describe the challenge this way: education is entering a period of exponential change where there is a great need for learners, teachers and leaders to learn, unlearn and relearn faster than ever before. Traditional approaches to learning and teaching are no longer sufficient in the new era. Technology and Learning combined stand to have the boldest impact on deepening and accelerating learning, teaching and leading in schools. We invite you to come and join us on the journey.
Here is a video of our discussion.
What job skills do we need for the future? A popular question that comes up a lot. In a Recent Post, I listed several: emotional intelligence, creativity, flexibility, adaptability, data literacy, and technology savviness. This Tweet of a World Economic Forum video adds complex problem solving, critical thinking, people management, working with others, and decision making to the list.
Every morning, I scan the horizon. Horizon Scanning is a systematic process that serves as an early warning system to inform decision makers about possible futures. It identifies actions, innovations, and events that have the potential to alter our future, both positive and negative. I am struck by the sheer volume of news, areas to consider, and emerging building blocks that are likely to impact society. The Possibilities – both good and bad – seem endless.
Thinking about the Future should be a normal part of every leaders day. With so many building blocks to consider, the need to understand them intensifies, as well as the various ways they are connecting. A Canvas that helps us to visualize can be very helpful. My scanning this morning underscores just how much to consider. In a short period of time, I explored the World Economic Forum’s continued focus on Purpose. Having just written about How Different Jobs will be in the next ten years, I read another Article on the need for a Global Reskilling revolution. As the world explores a profound shift in our energy paradigm, I learned that the windows in our buildings will provide all the Energy Required. The foundational elements of society are shifting. Even money is likely to transform, as Central Banks study the possibilities of Digital Currencies.
So, scan away my friends, the horizon is approaching rapidly.
As many focus on the future of work, various different perspectives are presented. A common theme is emerging: Jobs will be there, but they will be very different within the next decade. This recent Article draws three conclusions:
- In 10 years time, 50% of jobs will be changed by automation – but only 5% eliminated.
- 9 out of 10 jobs will require digital skills.
- Young, low-skilled and vulnerable people – all need help with up-skilling.
Several critical points are made by the World Economic Forum article:
How we handle learning and education in the coming decade will play a major role in determining societal outcomes. Will people gain the skills required by the jobs that scientific and technological advancement spawn? Will education enable us to operate in a future environment that requires collaboration, system leadership, resilience, a learning mindset and entrepreneurial drive? Will we unlearn the shareholder value focus and broaden our focus to consider the full stakeholder community? How we educate future leaders and a society of life-long learners will provide answers to these questions.
A new Article via the World Economic Forum delves into the topic, as the authors explore the university of the future and how it must adapt to train future leaders. The article states that universities must evolve in four ways to meet the demands of future leadership needs:
- Embrace technology
- Create more action-based learning models
- Understand the expanded role of business in society
- Support life-long learning
Education and learning remains a critical issue for me, as it lies at the heart of how society emerges from the transformative pressures of the coming decade. My recent posts share several thoughts on the topic.
An Article by IEEE Spectrum captured a dialog that occurred at a recent MIT conference. The topic: AI and the Future of Work. The conference discussion underscores the struggles between Techno-Optimism and Techno-Pessimism. Pessimistic when AI and automation are viewed as an industry-destroying path that takes jobs via self-driving technology, smart law algorithms, and robots that continue to put factory and warehouse workers out of work. Optimistic when those same technologies are viewed as augmentation that improves the employee experience.
A changing of the guard has been in motion for some time. In 2020, Millennials will be the dominant workforce on the planet. The five generations in our workforce introduce a leadership challenge, alongside disruptive forces swirling around society. The truth is that millennials are likely the generation tasked with solving this broad set of societal challenges. This recent Forbes Article says it well. The challenges likely facing this generation include: technologies like AI, shifting business models, the implications of near zero marginal cost, the resources of the planet, the nature of house ownership, transportation, healthcare, work, education and families.
Fundamental questions about Why and how we Educate will have to be addressed for the first time since the introduction of high school. Additionally, this generation will have to deal with an Aging Society. As Michael Gale – the author of the above article – describes, one in four millennials are already directly managing a parents’ ill health on a daily basis. The added burden of college debt could create additional obstacles to success.
There has been a negative stigma associated with this generation. However, they are not the problem but part of the solution. As 72% of the Global 2000 continue their digital transformation journey, millennials offer a perspective that helps realize intended outcomes. The Forbes Article describes five things that you can do to enable this – take a look.
In a recent Article, author Bernard Marr describes the five most important job skills of the future. A conversation that is tightly linked to the role of education, and a topic I have explored in Several Posts. Mr. Marr states that the pace of change is being driven by several factors. He paints a picture of an interconnected world that allows us to work remotely and with people from different cultures as easily as if they were in the office next door. The Healthy Extension of Life allows us to work longer, creating an age-diverse workforce. Combined with science fiction becoming reality, machines suddenly augment our skills and free us up to focus on higher-level activities.
A recent Article on education reveals that Switzerland has the most highly skilled workers in the world. In an era where job growth is likely to tilt towards high skilled jobs, Switzerland is doing something right. At the heart of our skilling challenges lies an education paradigm and system that were built in and for a different era. I have spent considerable time on the need for a shift in the Learning Paradigm. Has Switzerland made the shift?
The World Economic Forum focused on wages in a recent Article that described a new Report from Hays, the world’s largest specialist recruiter. They highlight another year of change ranging from the tensions rising over trade relations between the US and China; to the uncertainty around Britain leaving the European Union; to the increasing levels of scrutiny against ’Big Tech’ and the ensuing debate surrounding privacy and content.
The IMF forecast a slowdown in global real GDP growth due in large part to the fear of the unknown. The Global Skills Index developed by Hays tracks the trends facing the global labor market. Here are some of the key findings: