Moore’s Law


A recent article regarding Moore’s Law explores the winding down of a phenomenon that has impacted the world considerably since Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, predicted that the number of components that could fit on a microchip would double every year. The article states that Moore’s Law has begun to reach its natural end, as efficiently manufacturing smaller transistors gets more difficult. Author Tom Hoggins projects that by the mid-2020s, the law will have plateaued completely as production costs increase and transistors reach their physical  limits.

The pictures I try to paint of our emerging future rely upon the continued expansion of our compute power and its synergistic relationship with energy. An example of a Virtuous Cycle in action, as advances in one area drive compelling reasons for advancement in the other. Realizing innovations’ potential to advance the human development envisioned by my Innovation Wheel relies on continued advancement in both areas. As the author states, Moore’s Law has in some ways eliminated the need for creativity in both design and manufacturing. As it comes to an end, a new era of creativity is likely to bridge the gap between the wind-down and a new computing paradigm such as quantum computing.

We already see creativity in advancements such as neural network processors that support the processing needs of AI solutions. The author strikes a positive tone, as he sees new approaches emerging to both software and processor architecture. The opportunity for innovators and investors is very large.

Marriage, Alternative Living, Biometrics, and the Rise of Nationalism


The visual below depicts aspects of our emerging future (Explained Here). I update it periodically to reflect impactful areas that affect the science and technology foundation, the future scenarios they spawn, and the wide array of societal factors that interact with both.

Our Emerging Future

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Mind-reading AI can see what you’re thinking and Draw a Picture


The brain is clearly one of the next great frontiers. In this World Economic Forum Article on reading minds, we get a glimpse into the exponential progression of brain science. The author cites research published by AI experts in China, the US and Japan showing that computers can replicate what people are thinking by using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) machines that measure brain activity – linked to deep neural networks that replicate human brain functions.

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Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence, Renewable Energy and More


The airwaves are filled with talk of exponential technologies like Blockchain, Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Renewable Energy and more. In addition, societal factors that influence or are influenced by technology are getting more attention. So what’s the buzz?

Blockchain

An article on Blockchain uses eight visuals to describe The Future of Blockchain and provides a Financial Services adoption timeline. The adoption scenario predicts that Blockchain will move past the Innovators phase in 2016 and reach 13.5 percent of early adopters within financial services. The tipping point is then expected to happen in 2018, as the early majority begins to see benefits realized by early adopters, and new models emerge. The growth phase lasts until 2025 when Blockchain goes main stream within financial services. This visual from the article captures the adoption cycle.

Blockchain Adoption Timeline

A separate piece by Mckinsey focuses on Blockchain in Insurance. A key take away from this report is that Blockchain is yet another example of an ecosystem growing beyond traditional industry.

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Internet of Things: Economic Benefit and Challenges Lie Ahead


On June 15th, I participated in an Internet of Things Webcast with CA Technologies. A replay of the event can be found here.  The abstract for the session read as follows.


In just a few short years, we’ve moved from being a web-economy to an application economy. One of the underlying reasons are thousands of new Internet of Things (IoT) applications, from manufacturing sensors to medical devices, automobiles to homes. Industry experts predict IoT has the potential for an economic benefit of up to $6.2 trillion by 2025. Are you ready to address the fast-approaching era of hyper-connectivity and voluminous data with your business networks? Do you have a strategy to turn your IoT into sustainable growth opportunities? Do you have the visibility to ensure your network can support these new applications and the flood of data that comes with them?

Join Frank Diana, Futurist and Digital Transformer with Tata Consultancy Services, to learn the new meaning of having an IoT-connected business in the future. He will be joined by Bernard Clairmont, Presales Consultant with CA Technologies, to explain the importance of having a sophisticated network performance management and diagnostic solution to be ready for the future of connectedness.


Like so many emerging innovation accelerators, the Internet of Things will be massively transformative. The time to act is now.

3D Printing


In my continued look at disruptive scenarios, the focus shifts to 3D printing. Growth in this key innovation is expected to accelerate to $10.8 billion by 2021 according to Goldman Sachs. The economic implications are significant: Research by McKinsey Global Institute suggests a possible impact of $550 billion per year by 2025. Some believe that 3D printing will play a crucial role in launching a third industrial revolution at a personalized level.

emerging-future

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Cognitive Computing and the Internet of Things


2014 has started with a bang! If this is indicative of things to come – it will be an interesting and exciting year. Two major events usher in our New Year: IBM announcing the formation of the IBM Watson Group and Google acquiring Nest. We’ve heard a lot about the Internet of Things and the growing adoption of Smart Home components. Perhaps not as widely discussed is the emergence of cognitive computing – a space that IBM just made a huge bet on.

In my transformation series last year, I discussed the automation of knowledge work as both an emerging enterprise disruptor, and future enterprise enabler. Cognitive Computing promises to be a major driver of both sides of this equation.  In its simplest form, cognitive computing is technology that allows us to ask natural language-based questions and get answers that support action, smarter decision making, and optimal outcomes. Gartner is weighing in and focused their recent 2013 Hype Cycle on the relationship between humans and machines. The focus – driven by the increased hype around smart machines, cognitive computing and the Internet of Things – is rooted in the belief that the divide between humans and machines is narrowing. Gartner encourages enterprises to look beyond the narrow perspective that only sees a future in which machines and computers replace humans. They see three main scenarios: 1) Augmenting humans with technology 2) Machines replacing humans 3) humans and machines working alongside each other. This is a very reasonable perspective on the likely path. The future enterprise as described through this Blog will use a combination of these scenarios to drive outcomes and transform stakeholder experiences (i.e., customer, employee, citizen, partner, etc.)

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