2022 Prediction Season

It’s that time of year when the airwaves are filled with predictions. I launched my post on signals prior to the holidays, consciously avoiding the term prediction. Regardless of how I feel about predicting in the current environment, there are many thoughtful articles to consider. Here are several prediction articles that I have curated.

Top futurologist predicts 2022 will be tormented year – in this article, Leading futurologist Marian Salzman makes a handful of predictions for 2022. She looks at the future of urbanization, water becoming a luxury, political instability, robots taking jobs, online education, gene intervention, and electronic pets.

22 things we think will happen in 2022 – in this article, journalists Dylan Matthews, Kelsey Piper, and Sigal Samuel embrace what they see as an important task for journalists: predicting future events. The article begins with a look at the most critical skills for forecasting, which are thinking numerically, being open to changing your mind, updating your beliefs incrementally and frequently instead of in rare big moments, and practicing. Their 22 predictions explore geopolitics, COVID-19, science and technology, environment, and culture.

Another 22 predictions for 2022 – in this Forbes article, Michael Gale echoes my thoughts on the inherent danger in prediction. He states that sudden shifts are not normal for the world, but we are experiencing them at a rapid and almost un-predictable pattern (I’d remove the word almost). This article is about the coming tipping point. I explored the likely third tipping point in human history within the context of what it means to be human. Here the authors look at it as the moment of critical mass, the threshold, and the boiling point. It is the point when everyday things reach epidemic proportions. Mr. Gale explores each of the following in the context of 2022 as the tipping point year: mass automation, AI directing our lives, electric vehicles, subscription economy, the environment, AI as a defense priority, digital healthcare, 5G, non-sovereign currencies, fractionalized NFT’s, dark factories, and the automotive revolution.

Experts Predict What the Economy Will Look Like in 2022 – this article makes economic predictions for the coming year. The first area of focus is on the cooling-off of the financial and housing markets, with interest rates as a key factor. The second is the potential for COVID variants, with Bank of America identifying them as the chief risk to the 2022 financial markets. The next is the expected pull-back of inflation by the middle of the year. Other topics include the U.S, and China dynamic, the great raise, and job-stealing robots.

What 2022 prediction for your industry are you most confident in? – in this article, Kevin McAllister asked experts from around the world to think about the prediction that they were personally most confident would come true in the year to come. The topics covered include digital health, IoT, 3D Printing, and compensation strategies.

10 AI Predictions For 2022 – in this Forbes article, Rob Toews presents 10 predictions for artificial intelligence in 2022. They include increased funding for NLP, with a Cambrian explosion in NLP startup innovation expected. The author predicts that at least three climate AI startups will become unicorns, and he sees the blossoming of AI tools for video. He also sees it becoming all but impossible for American and Chinese actors to meaningfully work together on AI initiatives, and Toronto will establish itself as the most important AI hub in the world outside of Silicon Valley and China. He also touches on responsible AI and reinforcement learning.

Enjoy the future-gazing.

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