Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. The visual below via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.
Continue readingElectric Vehicles
Science and Technology Race Ahead
I recently wrote about innovation being everywhere. This pace of innovation has me believing in a possibility space with the potential to solve many of humanity’s grand historical challenges. As Chunka Mui (Futurist and innovation advisor) said in a recent article, today’s innovators can prosper by building a better tomorrow. Indeed, purpose has become a catalyst for positive change. I encourage you to read his recent article. Chunka described our current world in late 2013 with the release of his book titled The New Killer Apps: How Large Companies Can Out-Innovate Start-Ups.
Continue readingAn Impactful Era Is Emerging – And It Becomes More Evident Every Day
Energy transitions throughout history have ushered in times of dramatic change. Every day another series of breakthroughs can be found in the media. This astounding level of innovation speaks to the reality of an energy transition that is at the leading edge of a shift from our current era to the next. It also highlights the role that catalysts play in creating the future. In the energy context, the situation in Ukraine is a catalyst that likely accelerates the transition. For example, Denmark wants to build what it calls ‘Energy Islands’ to free Europe from using Russian fuel. This article describes how these islands were part of Denmark’s transition towards renewable energy, but tensions with Russia (catalyst) both expanded and accelerated their vision.
Continue readingClimate Investing 2.0
According to this recent article, there is a surge in environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) investing, which is attracting record amounts of capital and bringing shareholder activism to the forefront. In contrast to the first wave of climate investing, this second wave will benefit from a more established ecosystem. In 2021, global venture capital funding for clean technology hit $43 billion, which was more than double the $20 billion invested in 2020. Experts believe that the trend is just getting started.
Continue readingThe Third Age Of Aviation
Their electric plane achieved a top speed of 55.9 kilometers per hour on November 16, 2021. The plane also broke the record for the fastest time to climb to 3000 meters (202 seconds) as well as maintaining a record speed of 532 kilometers per hour for over 15 kilometers. What’s more, during those runs, the Spirit of Innovation clocked a top speed of 623 kilometers per hour.
Mark Jessen – on the Rolls-Royce all-electric aircraft
A recent article describes the record-breaking achievements of an all-electric aircraft developed by Rolls-Royce. The first video is a very short view into this program. The second provides a deep look into the future of aviation.
Continue reading2022 Prediction Consensus
In truth, experts are merely guessing at what will happen over the coming year. In 2020, almost nobody had a pandemic on their bingo card. In 2021, NFTs completely flew under the radar of experts, and nobody saw a container ship get lodged in the Suez Canal in their crystal ball.
Nick Routley – Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022
We may not be able to predict the future but we can create it. Analyzing the thoughts of experts helps us envision possible futures – and through envisioning we open a path towards creation. In this recent article via Nick Routley, we get a big picture look at what experts predict for the coming year. This visual from the article is attributed to Visual Capitalist.
Continue readingAstounding Levels Of Innovation: Energy
As we move aggressively into this period of great invention, we will increasingly marvel at astounding levels of innovation. Every domain will experience this phenomenon…and it is accelerating. The articles below make the point very clear. The most encouraging piece of these breakthroughs is growing evidence that our world of extraction is shifting ever so slightly to one of creation. Advances in materials science are critical to solving some of the worlds greatest challenges. The energy transition is underway.
Tesla aims to release $25,000 electric car in 2023, likely will not have a steering wheel
This wildly reinvented wind turbine generates five times more energy than its competitors
Experimental chlorine battery holds 6 times more charge than lithium-ion
What if walking around on your wood floors powered your home?
Hydrogen in aviation: how close is it?
Graphene innovation opens doors to low cost, sustainable, sodium-ion batteries
Crewless Cargo Ship with Zero Emissions Launches
A Norwegian company has created what it calls the world’s first zero-emission, autonomous cargo ship. If all goes to plan, the ship will make its first journey between two Norwegian towns before the end of the year, with no crew onboard. Instead, its movements will be monitored from three onshore data control centers.
Rochelle Beighton – World’s first crewless, zero emissions cargo ship will set sail in Norway
That quote from this recent article describes the worlds first fully electric container ship that is also autonomous. The shipping industry currently accounts for between 2.5% and 3% of global greenhouse gases emissions, according to the International Maritime Organization. This zero emissions cargo ship begins the long process of addressing that problem. It is envisioned that it will replace 40,000 truck journeys a year. The crewless feature of this emerging innovation makes the ship more cost effective to operate. Almost every scenario we look at tells the same transition story. In this case, the transition involves humans loading and unloading the ship initially, but eventually transitioning to all operations using autonomous technology.
Continue readingAre Electric Vehicles Taking Over Faster Than We Think?
We are in the middle of the biggest revolution in motoring since Henry Ford’s first production line started turning back in 1913.
Justin Rowlatt – Why electric cars will take over sooner than you think
That quote from a recent article brings to mind a fundamental truth: there are divergent opinions on just about any emerging future scenario. Author Justin Rowlatt states that we have past the tipping point; that milestone where electric vehicle sales begin to overwhelm traditional car sales. As the big car makers position themselves to sell only electric vehicles at some point this decade, one must wonder what factors led to those decisions. One of those factors comes from government, as they ban the sales of traditional vehicles on some predetermined timeline. The author however points to the speed of the technological revolution the world is experiencing. I liken this period to the early days of the second industrial revolution. A period of great invention which is likely surpassed by the period we have entered – with the big difference being the speed of realization.
Continue readingThe Future Of Gas Stations
The electric vehicle drumbeat is intensifying as we hear more pronouncements about the end of gas-fueled vehicles. Practical realities will likely have their say on timing, but nonetheless, we must envision a future where electric vehicles rule the road. In that future, what becomes of gas stations? Here is a quick video that explores that question.
Transforming The Energy Paradigm
The most transformative periods in history are linked to eras of energy transition. The most impactful was the emergence of fossil fuels. What does that say about what lies ahead? Have we entered a period of energy transition, and if so, are we on the cusp of another highly transformative period? Energy is just one piece of a very disruptive decade ahead – but it is perhaps the biggest piece. As we Accelerate Towards a new energy paradigm, what can we expect? One thing is certain: there are societal and geopolitical implications to consider.
Continue readingVirtuous Cycles Accelerate Pace
In segment five of my interview with Chunka Mui, we discussed virtuous cycles and their ability to accelerate the pace of science, technology, and emerging future scenarios. Mr. Mui uses the driverless car to demonstrate the impact of these cycles, and the impact they have on emerging scenarios. In a Future Thinking context, analysis of these cycles must be part of our Rehearsing, or we will misjudge their timing and short term implications.
Chunka Mui is the managing director of the Devil’s Advocate Group, a consulting team that helps organizations design and stress test their innovation strategies. Mr. Mui published a popular book titled The New Killer Apps.
Segment five is a quick three minute video.
Autonomous Vehicles: An Interview with Chunka Mui
The convergence that is steering our emerging future manifests itself through a number of scenarios that drive multiple paradigm shifts. As the shifts themselves converge, they intensify the critical need for leaders to think differently about a world where the future arrives faster than people think. Some time ago, I had a great conversation with Chunka Mui regarding pace, the sheer number of shifts, and the need to think differently. We used the autonomous vehicle to explore the challenges of our emerging future. I will present the full discussion in five short segments, along with white board animation to visualize our dialog.
Chunka Mui is the managing director of the Devil’s Advocate Group, a consulting team that helps organizations design and stress test their innovation strategies. As a consultant on strategy and innovation, Mr. Mui has spent considerable time analyzing the autonomous vehicle scenario. He asked a question in his book The New Killer Apps about autonomous vehicles and what happens if traffic accidents are reduced by 90% as Google predicts. This simple question makes visible the broad and deep implications of these future scenarios. As society responds to their implications, new ecosystems emerge that alter our world. In this case, the vehicle is one of numerous components of an emerging mobility ecosystem that is defined by the responses that are playing out right now.
Here is the first of the five segments:
Reimagining the Future 