What happens when the world still has work – but not enough people to do it?
By 2030, something strange had taken hold in the global economy.
It wasn’t a recession.
It wasn’t a collapse.
In many ways, it looked like prosperity: demand was strong, innovation surged, and open roles stretched across nearly every sector. But quietly, and then all at once, we ran into a different kind of scarcity:
As we stand at the threshold of another profound technological shift, many refer to this moment as the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Historically, we’ve used the term “industrial” to describe revolutions centered primarily on advances in production, efficiency, and the scaling of physical labor – whether through steam-powered machines, electrical infrastructure, or digital automation. Each industrial revolution significantly reshaped how we lived and worked but always remained anchored in improving productivity and mechanization.
Continue readingAs the world enters what may be the most transformative period since the dawn of industrialization, comparisons to past eras of great invention are both understandable and necessary. The steam engine, electrification, and mass production systems redefined economies, reshaped societies, and triggered massive employment shifts. Today, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and synthetic biology are poised to do the same. Yet beneath the surface of these historical parallels lies a crucial divergence – one that could reshape not just work, but the social fabric itself.
Continue readingHistory has shown that when necessity, invention and innovation converge, the result is transformative change. From the steam engine to artificial intelligence, periods of economic, societal, and technological strain have consistently pushed invention innovation to new heights. These inflection points – where high-pressure needs meet breakthrough ideas – can drive unprecedented leaps in productivity, reshaping industries, economies, and even entire civilizations.
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In our era of rapid technological transformation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands on the brink of becoming a powerful general-purpose technology (GPT) akin to electricity or the steam engine. These foundational technologies fundamentally reshape industries and redefine society by following an evolutionary trajectory that moves from small improvements to system-level change. History shows us that realizing the full potential of GPTs demands both an understanding of their progressive phases and a forward-thinking mindset, especially to avoid the productivity lags that have plagued previous technological revolutions.
Continue readingAs a keynote presenter and futurist, I am frequently asked by parents the pressing question: “What should my children study in school to thrive in an increasingly automated world?” In an era where technological advancements are rapidly reshaping the job landscape, my response emphasizes a balanced education that cultivates foundational skills like critical thinking and emotional intelligence, embraces STEM and digital literacy, and fosters adaptability and lifelong learning. Additionally, I advocate for focusing on human-centric fields, entrepreneurial abilities, ethical reasoning, and global awareness. By integrating these elements, we can equip the next generation with the tools they need to not only navigate but also shape the future of work and society.
To test the appropriateness of my response, I asked ChatGPT how it would respond. Here is the response:
I believe the notion of a next generation of productivity is about to ramp…sharing again
In a recent post, I focused on a series of emerging shifts and the transformation pillars that enable a re-imagined future. In this post, I will dive into one of those pillars: next generation productivity. According to Wikipedia, productivity is an average measure of the efficiency of production. It can be expressed as the ratio of output to inputs used in the production process. In a recent Citi Report, they describe the significant slowing of labor productivity growth, which drives a focus on next generation gains. But In spite of technological progress and innovation, measured productivity growth is low by historical comparison. They cite these growth statistics across advanced economies.
Continue readingOne of the more eye-opening narratives in the story arc of my presentation is the comparison of our current era to the 1920s. Given the catastrophic period that followed, lessons can be learned. A great period of invention ran in parallel, helping to establish our modern standard of living. But there was another period of invention that is also very instructive. That period dates to the early 19th century and is closely associated with the Luddite movement and the birth of the factory system. In a book released this September, Brian Merchant explores this period in history and its similarities to our current era. If the 1920s sowed the seeds of the conflicts that followed, the early 19th century sowed the seeds of labor movements, the modern welfare state, and of all things, science fiction.
Continue readingI just finished reading another book. This one was titled Four Battlegrounds – Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. It should be no surprise at a time when everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, that the last three books have been focused on that space.
The author is autonomous weapons expert Paul Scharre. In this informative book, Mr. Scharre describes the competition to develop and implement artificial intelligence, and the implications to our geopolitical order. He uses my favorite storytelling mechanism by using history as a guide. He compares the pending revolution to the industrial revolution, where mechanization and electricity touched every aspect of our lives.
Continue readingCan a self-driving truck handle a tire blowout better than most humans? Watch below and see this article for details.
When I first posted a video of Ameca defending her personal space, the reaction ranged from fascinating to creepy. I would expect a similar reaction to this new video released by Engineered Arts. They have been working on teaching Ameca a wider range of facial expressions, with twelve new actuators added. See for yourself.
Continue readingIn a post yesterday on population growth, I shared a fascinating visual that looked at the age structure of our population in 2017 versus projections for 2100. The tweet is shared again below, click on arrow in the visual to see the changes.
Population size is important in several ways. Historically, experts worried about societies ability to sustain an ever-growing population. With climate change issues mounting, those concerns remain. However, a scenario where our global populations shrink brings a different set of challenges. As this article on projected labor shortages describes, the growth rate of an economy is determined by two factors: growth in hours worked and growth in productivity. The sustained economic growth of the last 250 years can be attributed to a growing skilled workforce (education played a major role) and major innovations that drove productivity.
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In times of significant change, society has followed two distinct paths that represent the Opposing Forces of Innovation. This subway diagram focuses on these two paths: one that enhances human development (green), and one that diminishes it (red). The station stops are the major impacted domains in either direction – but we could add several other stations based on the number of Building Blocks available to society. Click on the visual to expand it.
Continue readingA recent article describes how Ford intends to use robots to operate 3D Printers. According to the article, Ford’s Advanced Manufacturing Center has developed an interface that allows machines from different suppliers to speak to each other in the same language and operate parts of the production line autonomously. The article explains how Ford’s patent-pending system solves a crucial bottleneck in the production line by using robots to operate the 3D printers through the night without human interaction.
In a post from 2018, I explored the automation of everything. The open question I posed was: how far will automation go? In the four years since that post, signals have emerged that illuminate the possibilities.
Continue readingForesight is growing in importance – and it is great to see leaders focused here. In this world of complexity, uncertainty, and rapid pace, generating foresight is not easy. It is a moving target, with change dynamics altering even the safest predictions. We need look no further than the impact of COVID-19 on the pictures of possible futures we were painting just 18 months ago. As difficult as it is, we are fortunate to have people like Alexandra Whittington around to help. She recently tweeted a pandemic influenced view of the future of population, work, and lifestyles.
In some cases, COVID-19 exacerbated trends that already existed. For example, birthrates were already dropping around the world, a phenomenon that grew more acute in the past 18 months. Africa was viewed as the outlier, contributing to future population growth even in the face of declining fertility rates. If the 2020 Oxfam study referenced in the visual below is accurate, a reversing of family planning gains could drive more growth.
Continue readingIn exploring possible futures, we give ourselves an opportunity to shape them. With all the existing and emerging science and technology building blocks converging with domains like society, the economy, and geopolitics, predicting the future is impossible. But we can look at possibilities and what they mean to our future. One great recent example was described in an article by Tristan Greene. In looking at artificial intelligence and related automation, Mr. Greene focused on how automation could turn capitalism into socialism. This is not a political discussion, rather, it is following a thread to a logical conclusion. In this case, the impact of automation on the future of work. Mr. Greene said:
Continue readingBack in 2014, the thought of advancements in automation was picking up steam. I wrote about a Next Generation Automation and focused on five primary drivers of advanced automation: the automation of knowledge work, advanced robotics, autonomous vehicles, the Internet of Things, and the mobile Internet. A McKinsey report from that period sized five disruptive technologies that could have an economic impact between $14 and $30 trillion. How much have we accomplished exactly seven years since that Blog post was written?
Continue readingWhen exploring how evolving technology will affect different aspects of our lives and society more broadly, one of the most interesting things we tend to find is that consequences are not wholly positive or negative.
This is perhaps clearest in the constant debates about what technology will do to job markets. Common logic dictates (to many at least) that increasing automation and new tech will eliminate opportunities and bring about massive net losses in employment. On the other hand, there are more and more arguments suggesting that automation and AI will also create new jobs. One particularly optimistic piece on The Washington Post in 2018 even predicted that machines would create 58 million more jobs than they would displace over a four-year span!
Continue readingI’ve asked this question before: Is Creativity the Sole Domain of Humans? As each day passes, the answer becomes clearer. One of the most impactful videos I use captures a conversation between Sophia the robot and Jimmy Fallon. As you watch their interaction, you quickly lose sight of the fact that Sophia is a robot. It’s easy for humans to be threatened by a robot that seems to encroach upon the characteristics that make us distinctly human. However, the other side of this discussion represents the potential for a positive human outcome. One example is the introduction of Companion Robots that help deal with the challenges of loneliness and isolation. Another is the role of robots in healthcare and elderly care.
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Reimagining the Future 