In a post from 2019, I described what some were calling the greatest wealth transfer in history. I pointed to an Article that positioned the next two decades in the United States as an unprecedented shift of demographics and finances. Baby Boomers were born between 1944 and 1964, and according to that article, this generation is expected to transfer $30 trillion in wealth to younger generations over the next many years: what some have called the “great wealth transfer.”
Continue readingEconomics
The Forces Driving Our Economic Future
At the heart of our uncertain times lies an astounding level of convergence, with historical precedent dating back to the second industrial revolution and the decades that followed. It was Robert J. Gordon in his brilliant journey through the economic history of the western world that illuminated this convergence. In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon focused on a revolutionary century that impacted the modern standard of living more than any period before or after. It was also Gordon that concluded the world will never see a period like that again. It was his conclusion that prompted my development of a future innovation visual that sought to dispute it. While technology has driven human advancement for centuries, it has not done so in isolation. In periods like the one described by Gordon; other domains play a role in determining where technology takes us. This quote says it best:
Continue readingGlobal Economic Prospects
The prospects for the global economy are a function of convergence. While geopolitics drives economic volatility, societal shifts create uncertainty, and science and technology lead us down divergent paths. The World Economic Forum provided their thoughts in a recent article that looked at global economic prospects.
Continue readingExploring Possible Economic Futures
In the interest of exploring possible economic futures, I have read books on Modern Monetary Theory, Zero Marginal Cost, The Job Guarantee, and several others. Add to the list the most recent book I finished, How Capitalism Ends. Viewed through the lens of property rights, wealth, and the transition from Feudalism to Capitalism, author Steve Paxton uses an effective method of storytelling: start with history and then explore possible futures. The book is setup by two thesis: the development and the primacy thesis. What he describes helps us understand the “why” behind the future that is emerging.
Continue readingA Shift In Economic Power
This visual from visual capitalist looks at global economies between now and 2036. It tracks the shift in economic power across the years, dating back to 2006. This article provides color commentary. Below the visual is a chart projecting the top ten economies in 2031. The economic domain is one of our convergence areas, with the changing economic landscape contributing to our uncertain environment. In rehearsing the future, this domain is a critical area of focus. What are the implications to the future if the visual accurately depicts economic power shifts?
Continue readingEconomic Headwinds Highlight Uncertainty Across Multiple Domains
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its economic predictions for 2022 and beyond. The IMF predicts that global GDP growth will slow from 6.1% in 2021 to 3.6% in 2022 and 2023
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The Profit Paradox
I finished another book and added it to my book library. The Profit Paradox was written by economist Jan Eeckhout and focuses on the decline of competition in the market. This decline, and the resulting dominance of large firms, has contributed to inequality, reduced innovation, and dropped the labor share of the economy.
Continue readingA Possible Future: Automation Shifts The Economic Paradigm
In exploring possible futures, we give ourselves an opportunity to shape them. With all the existing and emerging science and technology building blocks converging with domains like society, the economy, and geopolitics, predicting the future is impossible. But we can look at possibilities and what they mean to our future. One great recent example was described in an article by Tristan Greene. In looking at artificial intelligence and related automation, Mr. Greene focused on how automation could turn capitalism into socialism. This is not a political discussion, rather, it is following a thread to a logical conclusion. In this case, the impact of automation on the future of work. Mr. Greene said:
Continue readingCOVID-19 And The New Great Depression
In a new book by James Rickards, the author explores both the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. A prolific writer, Economist, and adviser, Mr. Rickards predicts years of economic turbulence ahead. In The New Great Depression, Mr. Rickards sees the pandemic through an historical lens, where crisis presents a gateway between one world and the next. With an eye towards history, he concludes that the Keynes practical definition of a depression fits, and we are now in a new depression that is more far reaching than a mere technical recession. Along the way, the author wades into controversial topics such as China’s role in spreading the virus and the lockdown that ensued (which he calls the biggest policy blunder ever).
Continue readingThe Great Demographic Reversal
Beginning in 1990, several forces converged to shape the global economy. Globalization, demographics, technology, deflation, debt, and interest rates have all played a role. Now, according to a recent book, at least two of those forces are reversing. In The Great Demographic Reversal, authors Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan describe these forces and their influence on the last thirty years of economic activity. With this convergence, the world experienced an extended deflationary period, which per the authors, was driven in part by a labor supply shock. The book said the following:
Continue readingAre We Heading Towards A New World Order?
After World War Two, 730 delegates from all 44 Allied nations gathered in the U.S. at the Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire. The Bretton Woods Conference aimed to regulate the international monetary and financial order after the war ended. Held from July 1 to 22, 1944, agreements were signed and ratified by member governments, establishing the institutions that represented a new world order. This led to what was called the Bretton Woods system for international commercial and financial relations.
Continue readingThe Price Of Tomorrow
“The best leaders are constantly learning, curious about where they made mistakes and actively looking for areas where they might have it wrong”
“Every so often, we learn something new that rewrites all of what we have come to know and trust. In those moments, our foundation of knowledge crumbles—and with it, many of the beliefs that we have built on top of it. Those transitions are hard because we do not easily let go of our beliefs”
– Jeff Booth, The Price of Tomorrow
Reimagining the Future 