As we stand at the threshold of another profound technological shift, many refer to this moment as the “Fourth Industrial Revolution.” Historically, we’ve used the term “industrial” to describe revolutions centered primarily on advances in production, efficiency, and the scaling of physical labor – whether through steam-powered machines, electrical infrastructure, or digital automation. Each industrial revolution significantly reshaped how we lived and worked but always remained anchored in improving productivity and mechanization.
Continue readingQuantum Computing
The Fastest Tech Transition In History: How Businesses And Governments Can Lead Or Lag
Historically, the diffusion of transformative technologies has been constrained by institutional inertia, workforce adaptation, and the challenge of transferring tacit, hands-on expertise. As a result, decades often separated invention from widespread adoption. Today, however, powerful General Purpose Technologies – artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and synthetic biology – may defy that pattern, diffusing faster than ever. What makes this era different, and how should businesses and governments respond?
Continue readingThe Next Human Revolution: Will Technology Change Who We Are?
Throughout human history, there have been only a handful of moments so transformative that they redefined what it means to be human. These tipping points were not merely technological breakthroughs or changes in societal norms – they were profound inflection points, moments when the trajectory of civilization bent so sharply that the “before” and the “after” became fundamentally different worlds.
Continue readingA Different Kind Of Disruption: Skills, Invention, And The Future Of Work
As the world enters what may be the most transformative period since the dawn of industrialization, comparisons to past eras of great invention are both understandable and necessary. The steam engine, electrification, and mass production systems redefined economies, reshaped societies, and triggered massive employment shifts. Today, artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and synthetic biology are poised to do the same. Yet beneath the surface of these historical parallels lies a crucial divergence – one that could reshape not just work, but the social fabric itself.
Continue readingThe Next Phase Of Power Transitions
My latest series of posts are driven by what I believe are two of the biggest forces that ultimately determine our future: General Purpose Technologies and geopolitical dynamics. In a previous post, I described the role of Necessity, Invention and Convergence in driving the diffusion of general purpose technologies. Necessity drives invention, but true trasitions occur when necessity and invention converge across industries, economies, and societies. However, as technological competition accelerates, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI), a deeper question emerges: What determines the diffusion of transformative technologies, and how does that shape global power dynamics?
Continue readingWill This General Purpose Technology Cycle Accelerate System-Level Change Faster Than Ever?
Throughout history, General Purpose Technologies have reshaped economies, industries, and societies. Steam power, electricity, and computing all followed a familiar trajectory – initial invention, slow diffusion, and eventual transformation that restructured industries and economies. Each of these transitions took decades, often constrained by infrastructure needs, workforce adaptation, and institutional resistance. Yet today, as we stand at the intersection of artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and quantum computing, the question arises: Will this General Purpose Technology cycle break historical patterns and accelerate system-level change faster than ever before?
Continue readingThe New Era Of General Purpose Technologies: Why Ecosystems, Not Industries, Will Define The Future
Throughout history, General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) have reshaped economies, industries, and societies, driving profound shifts in how value is created and distributed. Yet, while the transformative nature of GPTs is widely acknowledged, the inevitability of ecosystems as the dominant economic structure of the future is not fully appreciated. Traditional industries, once defined by clear boundaries, will slowly be replaced by interconnected ecosystems where businesses, institutions, and governments collaborate to solve challenges that no single entity or sector can address alone. This shift is not merely a byproduct of technological advancement – it is an economic and structural necessity.
Continue readingThe Great Convergence: When Necessity Meets Invention and Innovation
History has shown that when necessity, invention and innovation converge, the result is transformative change. From the steam engine to artificial intelligence, periods of economic, societal, and technological strain have consistently pushed invention innovation to new heights. These inflection points – where high-pressure needs meet breakthrough ideas – can drive unprecedented leaps in productivity, reshaping industries, economies, and even entire civilizations.
Continue readingUnlocking Human Potential – The Emergence Of Scientific Revolution 2.0
In Part Two of this series, I discussed an age of invention. As we approach the third decade of the 21st century, we stand on the brink of a transformative era in human history – an era that not only rivals the original Scientific Revolution but, in many ways, surpasses it. In this third part of the series, I look at this new paradigm shift, aptly named Scientific Revolution 2.0, which is poised to reshape our world with profound and far-reaching impacts.
Continue readingUnlocking Human Potential – A New Age Of Invention
Having traced the evolution of knowledge democratization in part one, Let’s explore how this phenomenon ushers in a new age of invention with potentially transformative implications. As we venture further into the 21st century, we find ourselves on the cusp of breathtaking advances, exhibiting striking similarities to past periods of transformative change while presenting unique opportunities and challenges. To understand the significance of this moment, it’s crucial to distinguish between invention and innovation.
Continue readingThe Catalyst Effect: How Transformative Inventions Shape Humanity’s Future
Throughout history, catalysts—key events and turning points—have ignited profound shifts in human behavior and societal evolution. From conflicts like World War II to scientific breakthroughs such as the discovery of electricity, each milestone has propelled us into new realms of possibility and understanding. Today, as we stand on the precipice of a technological revolution driven by artificial intelligence (AI), humanoid robots, quantum computing, synthetic biology, and space technology, it is crucial to reflect on how these transformative developments will reshape our future. I have viewed this emerging period as a looking glass moment.
Continue readingThe Promise And Challenges Of Quantum Computing
Quantum computing stands at the forefront of technological innovation, offering the tantalizing promise of revolutionizing how we process information. By leveraging the principles of quantum mechanics, quantum computers could solve complex problems far beyond the reach of classical computers. However, despite its immense potential, realizing the full capabilities of quantum computing is fraught with significant challenges.
Continue readingQuantum Supremacy
Quantum computing was a hot topic in recent sessions, so i thought I’d brush up on all things quantum. To do that, I read a book titled Quantum Supremacy. Author Michio Kaku explores the rise of quantum computers and its potential to address many of our societal challenges. He envisions an end to the age of silicon and digital and the dawn of the quantum age. We learn the fundamentals of quantum mechanics and the staggering growth in compute capacity that it drives.
Continue readingIt’s The 2023 Prediction Season
It seems like you blink and prediction season is upon us again. Futurist Bernard Marr shares his top ten technology trends list in the video below and associated article. He touches on AI, Metaverse, Web3, Digital Twins, 3D Printing, CRISPR, Quantum Computing, Green Technology, Humanoid Robots, Autonomous Systems, and Sustainable Technology. A very good list from a technology standpoint. It’s time for this ritual to focus as much on geopolitics, economics, philosophy, and society, as these domains will play a significant role in shaping possible futures.
Continue readingClimate Investing 2.0
According to this recent article, there is a surge in environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) investing, which is attracting record amounts of capital and bringing shareholder activism to the forefront. In contrast to the first wave of climate investing, this second wave will benefit from a more established ecosystem. In 2021, global venture capital funding for clean technology hit $43 billion, which was more than double the $20 billion invested in 2020. Experts believe that the trend is just getting started.
Continue readingPresent Future
Time is the dimension of historians and futurists, of chroniclers of what was, and speculators of what may be. Here is a truth: In making any decision, we are by definition deciding what to do . . . next. We must choose amongst known possibilities and paths, simulate outcomes and consequences in our minds. Another truth: At any decision point, 100% of the information we have is based on the past, while 100% of the value and consequences of the decision we make lies in the future, which is inherently probabilistic and unknown
Guy Perelmuter, Present Future: Business, Science, and the Deep Tech Revolution
That quote comes from a recent book titled Present Future authored by Guy Perelmuter, Founder at GRIDS Capital. The book takes a look at history and the future. The foreward echoes one of my strong beliefs: “when it comes to our endlessly unfolding future, the only certainty is uncertainty, and the only way to reduce uncertainty is to have a deep sense of history and reliable clues to the future.” That foreward was written by Josh Wolf, Founder and Managing Director, Lux Capital. He describes the book as follows:
Continue readingQuantum Computing
Recently, an audience question about the timing of quantum computing (QC) was answered by an expert in the following way: the timeline for the realization of QC is accelerating, with some milestones being realized as early as 2025. Much remains to be seen, but any acceleration of QC brings an acceleration of many world altering scenarios. In a recent article, Daphne Leprince-Ringuet identifies eight ways that quantum computing will change our world. Those eight are:
- Discovering new drugs
- Creating better batteries
- Predicting the weather
- Picking stocks
- Processing language
- Helping solve the traveling salesman problem
- Reducing congestion
- Protecting sensitive data
You can read about each in detail via the article. While that’s an impressive list, the true power of quantum computing lies in its problem solving potential. When realized, QC will likely help with climate change, chronic disease, and other long-standing problems that have been impossible to solve. As with every emerging innovation, it also has the potential for destruction. Quantum computing is explored in a fascinating new book titled AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future. Authors Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan take us on a fascinating journey to 2041. They use the power of story-telling to effectively help us understand where artificial intelligence (AI) is taking us. I will write a separate post on the book, but in the meantime, I have added it to my book library. The power of AI is amplified and accelerated with the realization of a new QC compute paradigm. However, after telling a story about quantum computing in 2041, Kai-Fu Lee states that he believes QC has an 80-percent chance of working by that date. He goes on to describe the challenges that quantum computing faces, and that considering those challenges, most experts believe it will take ten to thirty years to get a useful QC.
Bottom line: it’s still anyone’s guess regarding the timing of quantum computing. Current signals have some believing that the timeline to realization is accelerating, and Kai-Fu Lee indicates that some optimists see it happening in five to ten years – consistent with the views shared during that audience interaction I mentioned. Regardless of timeline, QC is just another example of a future innovation with massive implications.
Emerging Technologies With Near Term Impact
Given the overwhelming number of science and technology building blocks available and emerging, keeping pace is a monumental task. Harder still is identifying those that have near-term impact. A recent article by Kevin Dickinson identifies ten emerging technologies projected to impact us in the short term – many of which were accelerated by COVID-19. Here is a quick look at the list.
Continue readingEdge Computing And The Need To Sense And Respond
Back in 2013, I wrote about the critical need to Sense and Respond in a climate of uncertainty, interdependency, complexity, and velocity. In that post, I said this:
As our world experiences continued Acceleration and the amount of data flowing through company ecosystems expands, the need to sense stimuli and enable a real time response intensifies. Fortunately, rapid advancements in the price and performance of technology make realizing this sense and respond paradigm achievable and economical for a wide range of use cases – but this is arguably one of the most difficult components of transformation road maps.
Continue readingMoore’s Law
A recent article regarding Moore’s Law explores the winding down of a phenomenon that has impacted the world considerably since Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, predicted that the number of components that could fit on a microchip would double every year. The article states that Moore’s Law has begun to reach its natural end, as efficiently manufacturing smaller transistors gets more difficult. Author Tom Hoggins projects that by the mid-2020s, the law will have plateaued completely as production costs increase and transistors reach their physical limits.
The pictures I try to paint of our emerging future rely upon the continued expansion of our compute power and its synergistic relationship with energy. An example of a Virtuous Cycle in action, as advances in one area drive compelling reasons for advancement in the other. Realizing innovations’ potential to advance the human development envisioned by my Innovation Wheel relies on continued advancement in both areas. As the author states, Moore’s Law has in some ways eliminated the need for creativity in both design and manufacturing. As it comes to an end, a new era of creativity is likely to bridge the gap between the wind-down and a new computing paradigm such as quantum computing.
We already see creativity in advancements such as neural network processors that support the processing needs of AI solutions. The author strikes a positive tone, as he sees new approaches emerging to both software and processor architecture. The opportunity for innovators and investors is very large.
Reimagining the Future 