The second industrial revolution ushered in an era of vertical integration, where companies built empires within clearly defined industries. Today, however, a new revolution is upon us – one driven by an explosion in the possibility space. Scientific and technological advancements are happening at an unprecedented pace, blurring the lines between disciplines and creating opportunities that transcend traditional industry boundaries. This is giving rise to a fascinating phenomenon: horizontal ecosystems.
Continue readingEcosystems
The AI Revolution In Medicine
I finished reading a very timely book on the exploding topic of artificial intelligence. Two very important reasons to read this book: 1) the author’s early work with GPT-4 and 2) the focus on medicine. A dominant conversation occurring in board rooms across the world involves the critical question of generative AI and its impact on a business and/or an industry. One of the authors is Peter Lee, Corporate VP for Research and Incubations at Microsoft. He leads the company’s worldwide research labs. For the past six years, his primary focus has been on AI’s uses in healthcare and the life sciences.
Continue readingData Is The engine That Drives Multiple Scenarios
Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. The visual below via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.
Continue readingFrom Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration
I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
Continue readingEcosystem Enabling Ways Of Organizing
Building blocks. We know they exist in the form of science and technology innovation, but they also exist in various geopolitical, economic, societal, philosophical, and environmental forces. It was 2014 when I read a report via John Hagel on combinations and disruption. Fast forward several years and discussions of composability have elevated to organization design. I recently moderated a CEO Roundtable titled “Envisioning Possible Futures.” In that discussion, enabling the edge of our organizations was discussed in an indirect manner. Without using the words, CEOs were challenging current command and control structures. I heard phrases like sense and respond for the first time in that type of leadership setting.
Continue readingWhy Ecosystems? Why Now?
For at least seven years, the concept of ecosystems has been discussed and defined in various ways, while sometimes applied in a context that dilutes its eventual impact. At the highest level, an ecosystem is a network of connected stakeholders interacting in ways that create and capture value for all participants. Why has this ecosystem phenomenon emerged now and why do people expect it to drive structural change? Once again, history may provide an answer.
Continue readingThe Future Of Freight Transport
Our fascination with autonomous vehicles spans over ten years. Much of that time was focused on self-driving cars in our cities and highways. While that scenario has been slow to materialize, autonomous vehicles are emerging all around us in various applications. We see autonomy rolling out in agriculture, mining, and increasingly, logistics. The autonomous trucking trials happening in the southern region of the U.S. are a harbinger of things to come. The movement of freight however is not limited to our current roads. This recent article describes the future of freight transport – which may be heading underground.
Continue readingEcosystem Leadership
In today’s world, the most effective CEOs recognize that no one is an island: no CEO, no company, no industry, no country. The lines have permanently blurred, and chief executives must embrace the opportunity to help shape our shared future — as enterprise leaders who are moving across and beyond — to influence entire ecosystems
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The Future Home
It is interesting to watch the patterns in which foresight questions emerge. I’ve seen periods where one specific domain is asked about more frequently than others, with the future of our homes currently a popular topic. The question is coming from multiple industries like construction, insurance, entertainment, healthcare, and banking. That’s not surprising given the horizontal nature of value creation and capture in the future. You may ask, what is there to talk about, the home has not changed much in a long time. However, a stop at the home section of the innovation wheel captures some of the changes coming to the home.
Continue readingNorway Embarks On A Floating Highway Project
The Norwegian Public Roads Administration is determined to create the world’s first floating highway. Coastal Highway Route E39 is projected to cut the 21 hour travel time between Norwegian cities by at least half through the elimination of seven different ferry crossings. The historic roadway project will cost more than $47 billion. The video below describes this ambitious project.
Ecosystem Business Strategy
I recently added a book to my library titled Winning the Right Game. I then had the pleasure of talking to the book’s author, Dr. Ron Adner. He was gracious enough to sit for an interview, which you can view below. This ecosystem topic is growing in importance, but success in a growing ecosystem world is not easy. Dr. Adner provides his thoughts on what it takes to succeed. Anyone exploring ecosystem business strategies will benefit from his advice.
The Probability Of Living Past 110 Is On The Rise
I posed this question in 2018 in a post on healthy life extension: Has the first person to live to 200 already been born? I ask that question in various forums to provide a good example of how one scenario can challenge current institutions and traditional thinking. In that earlier post, Johnty Andersen, had this perspective on that question:
Continue readingEcosystems Set To Redistribute $60 Trillion In Annual Revenue By 2025
In a post back in 2013, I focused on value ecosystems and how they would blur the lines between industries, making Industry constructs irrelevant in the future. At the time, I said the phenomenon would accelerate and companies would ultimately identify the relevant ecosystem(s) that enable their growth strategies. It was clear back then that ecosystems are complex, relationship-oriented, and represent future growth opportunities that are increasingly outside a company’s traditional business.
Continue readingRevisiting Experiences
So far, I have revisited Automation, Digital Transformation, and Autonomous Vehicles. This reflection on the past continues with a look at experiences. Back in 2013, as part of a series on digital transformation, I focused on what at the time I referred to as Next Generation Experiences. Back then, the issues of customer experience, customer-centricity, and customer intimacy were top-of-mind and dominated many executive discussions and conference agendas. I envisioned a next generation experience anchored in how customers think about it, not the way functional silos do. Those experiences would be delivered by the stakeholder ecosystem, requiring experience strategies to include all stakeholders whether internal or external.
Continue readingThe Future Of Gas Stations
The electric vehicle drumbeat is intensifying as we hear more pronouncements about the end of gas-fueled vehicles. Practical realities will likely have their say on timing, but nonetheless, we must envision a future where electric vehicles rule the road. In that future, what becomes of gas stations? Here is a quick video that explores that question.
Nanobots To Improve Our Health and Someday Connect Our Minds
Nanotechnology is defined as the manipulation of matter with at least one dimension sized from 1 to 100 nanometers. Wikipedia had this to say about the field:
Nanotechnology may be able to create many new materials and devices with a vast range of applications, such as in nanomedicine, nanoelectronics, biomaterials energy production, and consumer products. On the other hand, nanotechnology raises many of the same issues as any new technology, including concerns about the toxicity and environmental impact of nanomaterials, and their potential effects on global economics, as well as speculation about various doomsday scenarios. These concerns have led to a debate among advocacy groups and governments on whether special regulation of nanotechnology is warranted.
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COVID-19 Accelerates Innovation In Healthcare
We owe so much to the frontline heroes that serve society in critical times. The pandemic has shown us just how important and under-appreciated these individuals are. We owe them a debt of gratitude. Healthcare is one of those areas where we see both heroics and exposure. The lack of digital progress has been exposed across sectors by the virus. That is the bad news. The good news is that extreme events like this can serve as accelerants. This recent Article describes the turning point that COVID-19 likely represents for healthcare. Rethinking healthcare for the digital age should be a top priority (as it should across all industries).
Continue readingDealing With Loneliness And Isolation
At a Milken Institute Health Summit in 2017, I participated in a panel discussion that focused on effective methods for healthier aging on a vast scale. One of the key discussion points was how Loneliness and Isolation were a leading cause of death among the elderly. Here in 2020, that concern has been amplified by the pandemic. During that panel discussion, I mentioned the use of companion robots to deal with this growing crisis. As society continues to age, the problem of isolation and loneliness grows more acute.
Continue readingTravel In A Post-Pandemic World
There was a lot going on in the world of travel prior to the pandemic. The emerging Mobility Ecosystem built on a foundation of innovation promises to disrupt this space as the decade progresses. The visual describes some of what lies ahead (click to view in a separate window).
Continue readingStrategy Looks Very Different In A Fast, Complex, And Uncertain World
In a recent Article, author Greg Satell describes strategy in a post-Digital world. Michael Porter positioned Competitive Advantage and dominating value chains as the foundation of strategy. Like many of our institutions and ideas, multiple forces are pushing that view into the dustbin of history. Two key forces are the shift to horizontal ecosystems versus vertical value chains, and technology cycles outpacing planning cycles. I have written extensively about Ecosystems and their impact on the value equation. Maximizing bargaining power among suppliers, customers, and new market entrants gives way to value-sharing scenarios where all participants in an ecosystem win.
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Reimagining the Future 