Throughout human history, there have been only a handful of moments so transformative that they redefined what it means to be human. These tipping points were not merely technological breakthroughs or changes in societal norms – they were profound inflection points, moments when the trajectory of civilization bent so sharply that the “before” and the “after” became fundamentally different worlds.
(more…)Category: The Third Tipping Point
Those aspects that drive the third tipping point
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The Persuasion Paradox – Reclaiming Truth In The Age Of Digital Persuasion
At the heart of the Persuasion Paradox lies a profound contradiction between the transformative promise of the Information Age and its unintended consequences. Initially, the internet was envisioned – and widely celebrated – as a revolutionary tool for democratizing knowledge, dismantling barriers to information access, and fostering global understanding. Yet, we now face a reality starkly different from that optimistic vision. The abundance of information, rather than elevating clarity and truth, has birthed a “noise-to-signal” problem, where misinformation, disinformation, and emotionally charged narratives often obscure the truth. This phenomenon resonates deeply with themes I’ve explored previously – the democratization of knowledge and the unintended consequences inherent in rapid technological and societal transitions.
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Genius Across The Ages: From Renaissance Icons To AI
In his final book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit, Henry Kissinger reflects on the historical significance of polymaths – those extraordinary individuals whose mastery spans multiple disciplines – and their profound role in shaping human civilization. He argues that polymaths, with their expansive intellectual reach, have served as essential engines of progress and innovation, continually moving humanity forward.
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The Power Of The Network: How Information Shapes Our World
In his latest work, Nexus, Yuval Noah Harari takes us on a thought-provoking journey through the profound interplay between information networks and humanity’s destiny. From the oral traditions that once bound ancient societies to the digital platforms reshaping our global communities today, Harari unveils the transformative power of information networks – how they have built civilizations, redefined power, and molded individual identities.
At its core, an information network is far more than a collection of nodes and links. It is a living ecosystem, continually expanding and contracting as it facilitates the exchange, evolution, and amplification of ideas. Over millennia, these networks have taken countless forms: the passing of legends around a village fire, the delicately inked manuscripts in medieval monasteries, the printing presses that sparked the early modern information revolution, and now the dazzling web of the Internet. These networks are the lifeblood of human progress – driving innovation, enriching cultures through exchange, and catalyzing the growth of economies. They are how we remember the past, navigate the present, and envision the future.
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Building Blocks Of The Future Explode In Number
Is it any wonder that leaders are overwhelmed? It’s not just the pace of change, extreme events, or challenges to existing mental models. It is the sheer number of building blocks that currently exist, and those that are emerging. Factor in convergence occurring across these building blocks, and you have a recipe for uncertainty, unpredictability and an overwhelming number of possibilities. It was the book titled The Second Machine Age written by Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, where the point was underscored.
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Colliding Trends Reshape 2030
A recent book explores aspects of a broader Convergence story. The book – 2030: How Today’s Biggest Trends Will Collide and Reshape the Future of Everything – was authored by Mauro F. Guillen. In exploring a number of trends, he shows how the only effective way to understand the global transformations underway is to think laterally. Said another way, we need to think at the systems level. Understanding pieces in isolation blinds us to the combinatorial nature of change. The book abstract says it this way:
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A Glimpse Into Your Views On Catalysts For Change
As I mentioned in a recent Post, the global pandemic has altered how we think about our world. However, one thing is constant if not amplified by it: society needs to act if we hope to shape a future that advances human development. The rapid pace of innovation – riding on antiquated institutions – required our attention pre-pandemic. In a post-pandemic world, both of those factors are amplified. The inadequacies of our institutions are more visible now than ever; and innovation that may have unfolded over years is realized in months.
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The Third Tipping Point
I have invested considerable time exploring the tipping points in human history. When I say tipping point, I mean a fundamental change in the nature of being human. As described in my Post on the topic, there were two main tipping points in human history: from hunter-gatherer to agriculture, and agriculture to our industrial society.
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Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scenarios
This Analysis by the Conference Board underscores how the trajectory of COVID-19 and the economic response over the next few months are uncertain. They developed three scenarios for the course of the US economy for the remainder of 2020. Focusing on future scenarios was already a critical imperative given the pace of change; the current pandemic just underscores the point. The analysis authors from the Conference Board are: Bart van Ark, Executive Vice President & Chief Economist, and Erik Lundh, Senior Economist. Here is an executive summary from the report:
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The Impact of Capital on Exponential Progression
In a post back in 2018, I described a phenomenon that contributes to the rapid Acceleration of innovation and scientific breakthroughs. Peter Diamandis coined the term Techno-Philanthropists and compared and contrasted them to the Robber Barons of a different era. Billionaires get a lot of negative press these days – but one thing is clear: their wealth is both accelerating the pace of innovation and addressing some of the world’s greatest challenges. Stories described by Articles like this one highlight the point.
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The Acceleration of Acceleration
In his recent Book Peter Diamandis describes why the future is faster than you think. At the heart of this phenomenon is the Acceleration of acceleration. The Convergence of multiple forces is driving this very fast future. As these Intersections occur, that pathway to a very different future opens wide. In the case of acceleration, Mr. Diamandis identifies seven forces that in effect accelerate the current acceleration dynamic. These are:
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The Future is Asian
While the 19th Century belonged to the British
, and the 20th Century to the Americans, Parag Khanna believes the 21st Century belongs to Asia. In his recent book The Future is Asian, the author takes us on a journey to Asia’s past. Along the way, we learn about the historical events that shaped Asia, and the role that the western world played in that shaping. As Mr. Khanna shifts to the present, we learn about the fascinating stories unfolding across Asia – from all corners of the eastern world. From Saudi Arabia, Africa and Australia, to China, Vietnam, Russia, and Korea. The coming together of Asians as a people is a core theme. The author explores the prominent role that Technocracy played in Singapore, and holds it up as a model to be replicated. He compares and contrasts the progress made in the East, to the dysfunction of the West. As we witness the populist outbreak in the west, we see a coming together in the east. As it does so, the Post-War (One and Two) global order defined by the West gives way to a global order increasingly defined by the East.
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Paralyzed Man Walks in Brain-Controlled Exoskeleton
This recent Article highlights the progress made in brain science, our focus on solving grand world challenges, and the critical need to continue this advancement. The article describes how a paralyzed man using only his brain signals was able to operate, maneuver, and walk in a whole-body robotic exoskeleton. This press release provides more details. The findings could advance efforts to help paralyzed patients drive computers using brain signals alone; “perhaps starting with driving wheelchairs using brain activity instead of joysticks and progressing to developing an exoskeleton for increased mobility,” says Stephan Chabardes, neurosurgeon from the CHU of Grenoble-Alpes, France.
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Looking Back to See Ahead
The further Backward you Look, the Further Forward you can See – Winston Churchill
I really like this quote from Winston Churchill. In a previous post on Learning from History, I was trying to say the same thing. One of the key learnings in looking back at our most transformative period (late nineteenth, early twentieth century), was the Convergence that occurred across multiple domains. I had developed a visual to capture a convergence phenomenon that took place over a one hundred year period – some have called this a Special Century. I updated the visual with new content (click the visual to expand). The color scheme shows the convergence that occurred across the business, science, technology, political, societal and economic domains. The red boxes represent the Catalysts that drove this convergence.
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Possible Futures: Exploring Deepfake and Neuralink
Two recent articles highlight the dilemma faced in this era of rapid innovation: the potential to enhance humanity, and the opportunity to diminish it. This article on DeepFakes describes the challenge that society will face as Deepfake video and audio make it impossible to tell the difference between reality and fiction. Audio attacks using convincing forgeries can send stocks plummeting or soaring. How about mimicking a CEO’s voice to request a senior financial officer to transfer money? These are real examples provided by Symantec. This short Video describes the money transfer scenario.
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The Convergence of Science and Technology
In looking at transformative periods throughout history, it is apparent that Convergence was a critical driver of change. While I am still hopeful of the ultimate convergence across societal, political, environmental, philosophic, economic, and business domains, it is clear that convergence is already occurring in the science and technology domains. This synergistic relationship where advances in one domain fuels rapid advances in the other is the force behind our rapid pace. As we saw in the Poll that looked at the catalysts that drive convergence, it is this rapid pace of innovation that many believe will ultimately drive it. This initial convergence is altering long-held Beliefs and Intuitions – eventually forcing convergence across the other domains.
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Food Abundance and Unintended Consequences
Two major forces are likely to converge in very unpredictable ways. The road to Abundance, as described by Peter Diamandis, promises to advance our human development in ways we never could have imagined. At the same time, the journey will drive a number of unintended consequences. The intersection of these two forces underscores the importance of focusing on emerging scenarios now, while we have the opportunity to realize the advancements and mitigate the impact of unintended consequences. Let’s use the journey towards food abundance as an example.
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Catalyst Poll Results
Updated results: April 9th, 2019. The response has been great, but I’d like to capture more voices. Please consider taking this very short Poll.
In a recent post on What to Expect in 2019, I launched three focus areas for the coming year. This focus attempts to identify the key drivers of change and the outcomes they enable. The three areas are:
- Convergence is one of the key dynamics I expect/hope to see more of this year. A century ago, convergence across multiple domains ushered in unprecedented advancements in human development. Multiple forces will drive a similar level of convergence in the coming decade.
- The pace of innovation and change is often cited as a key difference between the next revolution and prior ones. This is one of the key catalysts driving change, and I expect it to Accelerate.
- I believe the world will experience a burst of Possibilities enabled by these forces of convergence and acceleration
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Mapping the Path of Innovation
In a recent post, I asked my readers to help me identify those catalysts that force the actions required to steer our future towards advancing our human development. Feel free to respond to the Poll. The number one response was the rapid pace of innovation. That response supports my own opinion that the pace will ultimately force stakeholders across multiple domains to take action. Much like the Domain Convergence that occurred during our most Transformative Period in History, convergence is required if we are to take the correct path towards human flourishing.
Inside the Next Transition 