Moore’s Law

Frank Diana Computing, innovation accelerators , ,

A recent article regarding Moore’s Law explores the winding down of a phenomenon that has impacted the world considerably since Gordon Moore, the founder of Intel, predicted that the number of components that could fit on a microchip would double every year. The article states that Moore’s Law has begun to reach its natural end, as efficiently manufacturing smaller transistors gets more difficult. Author Tom Hoggins projects that by the mid-2020s, the law will have plateaued completely as production costs increase and transistors reach their physical  limits.

The pictures I try to paint of our emerging future rely upon the continued expansion of our compute power and its synergistic relationship with energy. An example of a Virtuous Cycle in action, as advances in one area drive compelling reasons for advancement in the other. Realizing innovations’ potential to advance the human development envisioned by my Innovation Wheel relies on continued advancement in both areas. As the author states, Moore’s Law has in some ways eliminated the need for creativity in both design and manufacturing. As it comes to an end, a new era of creativity is likely to bridge the gap between the wind-down and a new computing paradigm such as quantum computing.

We already see creativity in advancements such as neural network processors that support the processing needs of AI solutions. The author strikes a positive tone, as he sees new approaches emerging to both software and processor architecture. The opportunity for innovators and investors is very large.

Agility

Frank Diana Digital Foundation , , , , ,

Agility is one of those buzzwords that can have many different meanings. In a recent article by Leo M. Tillman and General Charles Jacoby, they define Agility much the same way I think about it:

Agility is the capacity to detect, assess, and respond to environmental changes in ways that are purposeful, decisive, and grounded in the will to win

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Take the Lead

Frank Diana My Media Activity , , ,

I had the pleasure of joining Dr. Diane Hamilton on her Take the Lead radio show. Here is a description of this segment from a Blog Post that Diane published: Frank Diana on Dr. Hamilton Show

If there is one thing constant in this world, that would definitely not be the future. It varies according to the different types of influences and technologies we encounter. Frank Diana, a recognized futurist, thought leader, and frequent keynote speaker, explains his thoughts on these influences that affect the future and how they come together. He goes deep into predicting trends, thought-leadership focused on emerging future, perception between real and not real, climate change, cryptocurrencies, AI, and more.

You can listen to this short interview at Take the Lead Radio. Platforms for conversation allow us as a society to discuss the various issues and opportunities that we face. Education and awareness are critical in a world that moves as fast as ours does. I thank Diane for the opportunity to have this discussion with her audience.

 

The Fourth Turning

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , ,

Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this in 2019, surviving author Neil Howe launched a follow up book last year titled The fourth Turning is Here. The number of visits to this original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.

The Fourth Turning

I just finished a book titled The Fourth Turning. I wasn’t sure I wanted to invest the cycles, but given my year-long focus on the past, I thought I’d give it a go – and I’m glad I did. In my continued efforts to reimagine the future, books such as this provide a richness of historical perspective. Although history was a key aspect of the book, I was more intrigued by the focus on generations, archetypes, and the cycles of our history (which last the length of a long human life). What intrigued me as a Futurist is the claim by the books authors that our past can indeed predict our future – it’s a compelling argument when viewed through the lens of these historical cycles.

 

So add another book to my Book Library. It was written in 1997 and accurately predicted some of the events that occurred in what the book refers to as a period of unraveling. If the cycle which has repeated itself six times was to do so again, we would have entered a crisis period somewhere prior to 2010 (great recession anyone). The crisis period would last one generation – moving towards a resolution that dramatically alters the social order by the late 2020s. Here is how the cycle is described by the book abstract.

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An Animated Guide to Autonomous Driving

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , ,

The future of cars is a popular topic these days. In a recent Article by Drew Page, he explores self-driving cars in detail, including the hardware, software, points of failure, issues, and levels of autonomy. The article uses this brilliant infographic from The Simple Dollar to describe these various areas. It is hard to get consensus from experts on when they envision full autonomy. In light of this, continuous education and awareness is critical, making articles such as this one critical. Although the benefits of full autonomy are fairly clear (a dramatic drop in auto fatalities, positive environmental impact, etc.), the risks are just as important to consider.

I highly recommend a quick read of the above mentioned article.

 

Stakeholder Capitalism

Frank Diana Humanity , , ,

As we close out 2019, the world is getting ready to gather once again in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland for the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting.  The 2020 event is held from January 21st through the 24th. Stakeholder Capitalism is a major theme for this years event. Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum describes the need for a better kind of capitalism. In this recent article describing why we need the Davos Manifesto, he describes the three models of capitalism. The current dominant model is shareholder capitalism – a model that enabled hundreds of millions of people around the world to prosper, as profit-seeking companies unlocked new markets and created new jobs. This model is embraced by most Western corporations and holds that a corporation’s primary goal should be to maximize its profits.

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Can Artificial Intelligence Predict the Future?

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , ,

AI Predicting the FutureArtificial Intelligence is expected to handle many things in the future; is predicting that future one of them? In a recent Article by The Economist, an AI called GPT-2, created by Openai, was asked to do just that. GPT-2 answered questions on the big themes for 2020. At this time of year, predictions are front and center. What did our AI have to say about the year ahead? Read the article to see how GP2 answered these questions.

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The Globotics Upheaval

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , ,

In a recent book, Richard Baldwin takes us on a fascinating journey to the past, and then provides a peak into the next great transformation. In The Globotics Upheaval, Mr. Baldwin describes a cycle that has played out multiple times throughout human history. The cycle of transformation, upheaval, backlash and resolution (Let’s call it TUBS) was experienced each time the world entered periods of major disruption. The Globotics UpheavalMr. Baldwin introduces the Globotics Transformation as the third great economic transformation to shape our societies over the past three centuries. As he describes, the first was known as the Great Transformation started in the early 1700s, and it switched societies from agriculture to industrial and from rural to urban. The second started in the early 1970s, shifting the focus from industry to services – the Services Transformation. I take a different view of transformation in the context of Tipping Points – but the cycle is the same.

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More Scenarios Added to our Emerging Future

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Our Emerging Future , ,

I periodically add more future scenarios to this visual that attempts to describe all the dots that are connecting to create our future. This future is complex, emerging from the combination of new and existing building blocks – a dynamic that enables the rapid pace that society is experiencing. The visual is described in detail Here.

Our Emerging Future

I have added two new Future Scenarios to the visual: Society 5.0 and Smart Nations. I have written about both recently. Each scenario is individually impactful – but the combinatorial effect is massively transformative. Tracking scenarios in an effort to See their path is the only hope in understanding their impact.

Smart Nations

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , , ,

Add Singapore to the list of Nations establishing a Smart Nation agenda. In a recent Article authored by Eileen Yu, she describes the launch of Singapore’s national artificial intelligence (AI) strategy. The Singapore government aims to drive AI adoption to generate economic value and provide a global platform on which to develop and test AI applications. As future scenarios go, Smart Nations represent a complex intersection of multiple ecosystems – broader than similar complexities associated with the Smart City scenario.

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The Circular Economy

Frank Diana Circular Economy, Future Scenarios , , , ,

In a recent Article via the World Economic Forum, author Alexandre Lemille – Co-founder and general secretary, African Circular Economy Network – describes the Circular Economy – a future scenario on my anchor Visual.  In doing so, he shows how our current model extracts resources, transforms them into products, and consumes or uses them, prior to disposal. He describes how recycling actually distracts from the realization of a true circular economy – as recycling only starts at the throwing-away stage: this is a process that is not made to preserve or increase value nor to enhance materials.

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Capitalism Alone

Frank Diana Post-Capitalism , , , , ,

I just added Capitalism Alone to my Book Library. Written by Branko Milanovic, Capitalism Alonethe book chronicles the journey of capitalism towards the dominant economic system in the world. A major focus of the book is the comparison of Liberal Capitalism in the west yo Political Capitalism exemplified by China. Another book that instructs from a historical context – providing possible Guidance as we look forward. A great look into why communism and socialism failed, how they are linked, and what the future of capitalism might look like. The book abstract from Amazon is included below.

ABSTRACT

We are all capitalists now. For the first time in human history, the globe is dominated by one economic system. In Capitalism, Alone, leading economist Branko Milanovic explains the reasons for this decisive historical shift since the days of feudalism and, later, communism. Surveying the varieties of capitalism, he asks: What are the prospects for a fairer world now that capitalism is the only game in town? His conclusions are sobering, but not fatalistic. Capitalism gets much wrong, but also much right―and it is not going anywhere. Our task is to improve it.

Milanovic argues that capitalism has triumphed because it works. It delivers prosperity and gratifies human desires for autonomy. But it comes with a moral price, pushing us to treat material success as the ultimate goal. And it offers no guarantee of stability. In the West, liberal capitalism creaks under the strains of inequality and capitalist excess. That model now fights for hearts and minds with political capitalism, exemplified by China, which many claim is more efficient, but which is more vulnerable to corruption and, when growth is slow, social unrest. As for the economic problems of the Global South, Milanovic offers a creative, if controversial, plan for large-scale migration. Looking to the future, he dismisses prophets who proclaim some single outcome to be inevitable, whether worldwide prosperity or robot-driven mass unemployment. Capitalism is a risky system. But it is a human system. Our choices, and how clearly we see them, will determine how it serves us.

Societal Impact of the Millennial Generation

Frank Diana Societal Factors , , , , ,

A changing of the guard has been in motion for some time. In 2020, Millennials will be the dominant workforce on the planet. The five generations in our workforce introduce a leadership challenge, alongside disruptive forces swirling around society. Five GenerationsThe truth is that millennials are likely the generation tasked with solving this broad set of societal challenges. This recent Forbes Article says it well. The challenges likely facing this generation include: technologies like AI, shifting business models, the implications of near zero marginal cost, the resources of the planet, the nature of house ownership, transportation, healthcare, work, education and families.

Fundamental questions about Why and how we Educate will have to be addressed for the first time since the introduction of high school. Additionally, this generation will have to deal with an Aging Society. As Michael Gale – the author of the above article – describes, one in four millennials are already directly managing a parents’ ill health on a daily basis. The added burden of college debt could create additional obstacles to success.

There has been a negative stigma associated with this generation. However, they are not the problem but part of the solution. As 72% of the Global 2000 continue their digital transformation journey, millennials offer a perspective that helps realize intended outcomes. The Forbes Article describes five things that you can do to enable this –  take a look.

The Economists’ Hour

Frank Diana Humanity

I just added another fascinating book to my Book Library titled The Economist’s Hour authored by Binyamin Appelbaum. Mr. Appelbaum is the lead writer on economics and business for The New York Times Editorial Board. From 2010 to 2019, he was a Washington correspondent for the Times, covering economic policy.

I find every journey to the past instructive, The Economist Hourand my hope is we can Learn from History. This book chronicles the role of the Economist, their foray into political waters, and their societal impact. Looking back in time can be surprising, as core beliefs are challenged. What can we learn from this look back? What do we do differently as a result? This is a fascinating journey that I highly recommend. The book abstract from Amazon is included below. The author’s conclusion?

Their fundamental belief? That government should stop trying to manage the economy. Their guiding principle? That markets would deliver steady growth, and ensure that all Americans shared in the benefits. But the Economists’ Hour failed to deliver on its promise of broad prosperity. And the single-minded embrace of markets has come at the expense of economic equality, the health of liberal democracy, and future generations.

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The Future of Employee Compensation

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future, Work , , , ,

A recent Article on the future of work focused on an important piece of  the story: a future employee compensation model. Author Dwight Chestnut proposes a new model that he calls the Empowered Employee Compensation Model (EECM). This new workplace compensation model was the result of a new economic research initiative. The model replaces hourly wages, salaries and benefits with ten new income resources and benefits and is projected to drive a three-fold increase in the aggregate standard of living.

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The Greatest Wealth Transfer in History

Frank Diana Societal Factors , ,

We spend so much time focused on disruption driven by advancement in science and technology – that we can lose sight of the massive amount of societal factors to be considered. When looking at the interplay between an exponential progression of innovation and those factors that impact society, we can see that the impacts run in Both Directions.

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The Hybrid Job Economy

Frank Diana Work , , , , ,

The notion that a renaissance man is more important today than ever is presented in recent Research by Burning Glass Technologies. Perhaps the best renaissance man of all time was Leonardo da Vinci, who was highly esteemed for his broad knowledge of many fields. The research concludes that we must all become more da Vinci-like in our careers. Said another way: learning a single skill in isolation has a short shelf life. Learning complementary skills becomes critical in what the research describes as a hybrid job economy.

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The Five most Important Job Skills of the Future

Frank Diana Education , , , , , ,

In a recent Article, author Bernard Marr describes the five most important job skills of the future. A conversation that is tightly linked to the role of education, and a topic I have explored in Several Posts. Mr. Marr states that the pace of change is being driven by several factors. He paints a picture of an interconnected world that allows us to work remotely and with people from different cultures as easily as if they were in the office next door. The Healthy Extension of Life allows us to work longer, creating an age-diverse workforce. Combined with science fiction becoming reality, machines suddenly augment our skills and free us up to focus on higher-level activities.

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The Global Fertility Crisis

Frank Diana Societal Factors , , , , , , , , ,

Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently posted an article describing the Global Fertility Crisis. As we look at the forces likely to shape our future, we spend a lot of time and media cycles analyzing the exponential progression of science and technology. Our Emerging FutureThis powerful force is having a profound impact on society. But the opposite is also true: society is influencing the path of innovation. Societal Factors play as big a role in establishing the path of our emerging future. I placed societal factors in the middle of the visual I use to connect an overwhelming number of dots. The two curves that surround them are the science and technology foundation; and the future scenarios that it spawns. Societal tension happens in both directions; out towards the curves, and in from the curves.

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The Next 50 Years of Digital Life

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , ,

Dr. Micah Altman – Director of Research, Center for Research in Equitable and Open Scholarship (CREOS) at MIT – recently made me aware of a Survey that probed several questions about the future of our Digital world. The survey was conducted by Elon University and the Pew Research Internet and Technology Project to imagine social and technological evolution over the next 50 years. The respondents were technologists, scholars, practitioners, strategic thinkers and others.

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