China

Book Review: Technology And The Rise of Great Powers By Jeffrey Ding

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Why Diffusion, Not Invention, Determines Who Leads in the Age of Transformative Technologies

In an era obsessed with technological “firsts,” Jeffrey Ding’s Technology and the Rise of Great Powers delivers a counterintuitive revelation: the nations that dominate the future won’t necessarily be those that invent the most, but rather those that diffuse innovations the fastest. By shifting the spotlight from invention to diffusion, Ding fundamentally reframes the debate on global competitiveness – with profound implications for policymakers, businesses, and societies.

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Will This General Purpose Technology Cycle Accelerate System-Level Change Faster Than Ever?

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , , , , , , , ,

Throughout history, General Purpose Technologies have reshaped economies, industries, and societies. Steam power, electricity, and computing all followed a familiar trajectory – initial invention, slow diffusion, and eventual transformation that restructured industries and economies. Each of these transitions took decades, often constrained by infrastructure needs, workforce adaptation, and institutional resistance. Yet today, as we stand at the intersection of artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, and quantum computing, the question arises: Will this General Purpose Technology cycle break historical patterns and accelerate system-level change faster than ever before?

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China’s AI Breakthrough: What Does Manus Really Signal For AI’s Future?

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , , , , , ,

A recent article described the launch of Manus, an autonomous AI agent developed in China. It has generated debate. in some circles. Some label it a leap in self-directed AI, while others see it as building on existing multi-agent frameworks. Speculation abounds about its true capabilities and how much of the attention is genuine progress versus media-driven hype. Throughout history, we have observed similar moments when an emerging technology prompts sweeping claims that may not align with its real-world limitations.

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The Fragile Future: A Deeper Look At 2035

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Yesterday, I launched a post titled The Fragile Future, exploring the uncertainty that lies ahead and the forces shaping our world. Today, I came across an article from the Atlantic Council titled Global Foresight 2025, which presents a range of possible futures through a survey of strategists and foresight practitioners. Their findings paint a stark picture of what 2035 might hold—a world teetering between worsening geopolitical conflict and cautious optimism about technology’s role in shaping our collective destiny.

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The Fragile Future: Why Stability Is More Uncertain Than Ever

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , ,

History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. As I read Robert D. Kaplan’s Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis, I was struck by his argument that the 20th and early 21st centuries have been especially bloody because the stabilizing force of monarchy has vanished. He suggests that despite our moral progress in areas like human rights and the environment, the world remains tightly wound, vulnerable to clashing interests and aggressive authoritarian states. He draws an analogy to Weimar Germany – a moment of fragile democracy, economic strain, and rising nationalism that ultimately collapsed into war.

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The Eurasian Century – Navigating Global Convergence

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I recently finished reading The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World by Hal Brands, a sweeping historical analysis that illuminates Eurasia’s enduring centrality in global geopolitics. The author convincingly demonstrates how Eurasia’s vast resources, immense population, and strategic location have continuously positioned it as the crucible of global power struggles – from the ideological confrontations of the twentieth century to today’s emerging geopolitical tensions. His narrative offers profound lessons for leaders navigating an increasingly interconnected and uncertain global landscape.

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Geopolitics In Flux: Why The Current Moment Matters

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

“New Cold Wars: China’s Rise, Russia’s Invasion, and America’s Struggle to Defend the West” by David E. Sanger offers a comprehensive analysis of the current geopolitical landscape, focusing on emerging tensions between the United States, China, and Russia. Sanger, a veteran national security correspondent for The New York Times, draws on his extensive experience to provide readers with a nuanced understanding of the complex challenges facing the world.

The book explores how the traditional concept of a Cold War has evolved in the 21st century, with China’s economic and technological ascendancy and Russia’s aggressive military actions reshaping global power dynamics. Sanger argues that these new cold wars differ significantly from the US-Soviet conflict of the 20th century, presenting unique challenges for global stability.

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The Loom Of Time

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I just finished reading a book that instantly drew my attention. Given the role the Middle East has played historically, and considering our current day situation, the region plays a significant role in our geopolitical future. The book titled The Loom of Time by Robert D. Kaplan explores this harsh geography that he considers a register of future great-power struggles across the globe, as it always has been in the past.

Like in the past, thousands of years of imperial rule will continue to cast a long shadow on politics as it is practiced today, in a region where stability remains a prized commodity.

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Global Foresight 2033

Frank Diana Foresight, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , ,

Alexandra Whittington is a fellow Futurist that recently participated in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security survey of the future. The survey asked leading global strategists and foresight practitioners around the world to answer burning questions about the biggest drivers of change over the next ten years. Over 160 experts participated in a survey that covered the following:

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Disorder: Hard Times In The 21st Century

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , ,

As geopolitical instability contributes to the uncertainty of the environment, it is critical to understand how we got here. Instability does not just emerge; it evolves over time. Our current climate finds its origins in the 1970s, with 2005 representing a critical tipping point. It still amazes me to think about the prescience of a book titled the Fourth Turning – where 2005 was identified as the beginning of a crisis period. A more recent book explored the question of how we got here. Author Helen Thompson tells a story viewed through the lens of energy, democracy, and aristocracy. The historical journey presented by Disorder underscores the complexity of geopolitical convergence.

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The Most Innovative Countries

Frank Diana Innovation , , , , ,

In 1960, the U.S. made up nearly 70% of global R&D spending, and by 2020 this had fallen to 30%. From job creation and public health to national security and industrial competitiveness, R&D plays a vital role in a country’s economic growth and innovation, impacting nearly every corner of society—either directly or indirectly.

Dorothy Neufeld – Mapped: The Most Innovative Countries in the World in 2022
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The Cashless Revolution

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , , , , ,

I just finished a book titled The Cashless Revolution authored by Martin Chorzempa. The book was selected by the Financial Times as one of the best of 2022. Interestingly, one of the other recent books I read is also on their list – Slouching Towards Utopia. This latest read explored the world of FinTech and the cashless revolution happening in China – and the possible futures that may drive.

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The Two Sides Of Population Growth

Frank Diana Societal Factors , , , , , , ,

My last two posts focused on labor shortages and population growth; two critical societal building blocks that converge in ways that shape our future. Continuing with that theme, this recent article looks at these building blocks through the lens of China.

China has edged over a demographic precipice: Its population has begun to shrink. United Nations data published on Monday showed that the long-anticipated tipping point came in the first half of the year; it’s a significant moment for a country whose large population helped transform it into a manufacturing powerhouse

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A Shift In Economic Power

Frank Diana Economics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , , ,

This visual from visual capitalist looks at global economies between now and 2036. It tracks the shift in economic power across the years, dating back to 2006. This article provides color commentary. The visuals are charts projecting the top ten economies in 2031. The economic domain is one of our convergence areas, with the changing economic landscape contributing to our uncertain environment. In rehearsing the future, this domain is a critical area of focus. What are the implications to the future if the visual accurately depicts economic power shifts?

2022 Prediction Consensus

Frank Diana Trends and Predictions , , , , , , , , ,

In truth, experts are merely guessing at what will happen over the coming year. In 2020, almost nobody had a pandemic on their bingo card. In 2021, NFTs completely flew under the radar of experts, and nobody saw a container ship get lodged in the Suez Canal in their crystal ball.

Nick Routley – Prediction Consensus: What the Experts See Coming in 2022

We may not be able to predict the future but we can create it. Analyzing the thoughts of experts helps us envision possible futures – and through envisioning we open a path towards creation. In this recent article via Nick Routley, we get a big picture look at what experts predict for the coming year.

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Slowly Then Suddenly: RoboTaxis Take Paying Customers In China

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , ,

The old adage that change happens slowly then suddenly is on display again in the form of robotaxis in China. While the adage still applies, the time between slow and sudden is collapsing. While we are not where many predicting we would be with autonomous driving, these small steps indicate progress. Advances in autonomous trucking is another step that likely fuels acceleration. This video posted yesterday describes the 67 driverless taxis that are taking paying customers. For now, a taxi firm employee will supervise the trips but the project’s backers are hopeful the fleet will be fully autonomous in the coming years. You can read more here.

Reverse Migration: The Danger Of Prediction

Frank Diana Societal Factors , , , ,

I have often stated that prediction is a fool’s errand. The sheer number of building blocks, the pace at which they emerge, and the combinatorial nature of innovation all conspire to complicate the art of prediction. For example, predictions about urbanization and smart cities point to 72% of the world population living in cities by 2050. This and other projected disruptors have many people believing that we will need an intuition reset.

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The Future Of Shopping

Frank Diana Industry, Retail

In our continuous effort to see possible futures, one need only look around the world for glimpses of emerging futures. Whether it’s companion and care robots in Japan (driven by an aging society that is now a global phenomenon), a new race into space, or the automation of war, the world is throwing off signals. With this in mind, China may be providing a glimpse into the future of shopping.

China Launches Autonomous Taxis

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , , ,

In a recent post, I Revisited Autonomous Vehicles. The conclusion is very apparent, we have not realized what many thought we would – at least not yet. But as I mentioned in that post, these scenarios move slowly and then suddenly. In an example of that phenomenon, China just launched an Autonomous Taxi service in Beijing. In a recent article, author Matthew Crisara said the following:

Baidu’s Apollo Go Robotaxi service is the first paid autonomous vehicle service where users can hop in a taxi without a backup driver to intervene. Customers will be able to hail a ride using an app, which allows them to locate a taxi within their vicinity. If they are unable to spot the car, users can remotely honk the horn to find their ride.

Matthew Crisara

The video below describes the new autonomous service.

COVID-19 And The New Great Depression

Frank Diana Economics, Future Scenarios, Our Emerging Future, Pandemics , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In a new book by James Rickards, the author explores both the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impact. A prolific writer, Economist, and adviser, Mr. Rickards predicts years of economic turbulence ahead. In The New Great Depression, Mr. Rickards sees the pandemic through an historical lens, where crisis presents a gateway between one world and the next. With an eye towards history, he concludes that the Keynes practical definition of a depression fits, and we are now in a new depression that is more far reaching than a mere technical recession. Along the way, the author wades into controversial topics such as China’s role in spreading the virus and the lockdown that ensued (which he calls the biggest policy blunder ever).

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