I finished reading a very timely book on the exploding topic of artificial intelligence. Two very important reasons to read this book: 1) the author’s early work with GPT-4 and 2) the focus on medicine. A dominant conversation occurring in board rooms across the world involves the critical question of generative AI and its impact on a business and/or an industry. One of the authors is Peter Lee, Corporate VP for Research and Incubations at Microsoft. He leads the company’s worldwide research labs. For the past six years, his primary focus has been on AI’s uses in healthcare and the life sciences.
Continue readingReimagining Science
It was the eventual convergence of science and technology that ushered in a period of unprecedented human development. This synergistic relationship exploited two historical pillars of advancement: knowledge and invention. I’ve explored how the growth of knowledge drove invention throughout history, and how that combination elevated the standard of living. Now, in the age of AI, we must consider the possibility of a new era of human development. This time, the possibility space is very broad, as AI is likely to reimagine science.
Continue readingPower And Prediction
As the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy reaches new heights, everyone is focused on understanding possibilities. Much will be written on the topic, with some exploiting the frenzy and others offering valuable insights. A book I’m reading titled Power and Prediction fits the category of valuable insights. As I read it, multiple thoughts are swirling. The book looked at historical progressions of major general-purpose technologies (steam, electricity, Internet, etc.) that evolved from point solutions to applications, ultimately leading to system-level change. For example, when electricity simply replaced steam within the same system (point solution) the benefits were limited. When electricity drove the system-level redesign of factories, the game changed.
Continue readingChip War
I just finished reading a very important book. The importance of semiconductors to the world cannot be understated. The book titled Chip War explores the past, dating all the way back to the early days of invention. This historical journey brings clarity to our current situation, and explains how we got here. The critical role that chips play across all aspects of society is made clear, as well as the potential dangers that lie ahead.
Any foresight effort should include possible scenarios for the future of chips. This is a critical enabling book as we grapple with an uncertain future. I have added the book to my library.
AMAZON ABSTRACT
An epic account of the decades-long battle to control what has emerged as the world’s most critical resource—microchip technology—with the United States and China increasingly in conflict.
You may be surprised to learn that microchips are the new oil—the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. Today, military, economic, and geopolitical power are built on a foundation of computer chips. Virtually everything—from missiles to microwaves—runs on chips, including cars, smartphones, the stock market, even the electric grid. Until recently, America designed and built the fastest chips and maintained its lead as the number one superpower, but America’s edge is in danger of slipping, undermined by players in Taiwan, Korea, and Europe taking over manufacturing. Now, as Chip War reveals, China, which spends more on chips than any other product, is pouring billions into a chip-building initiative to catch up to the US. At stake is America’s military superiority and economic prosperity.
Economic historian Chris Miller explains how the technology works and why it’s so important, recounting the fascinating events that led to the United States perfecting the chip design, and to America’s victory in the Cold War by using faster chips to render the Soviet Union’s arsenal of precision-guided weapons obsolete. But lately, America has let key components of the chip-building process slip out of its grasp, leading to a worldwide chip shortage and a new war brewing with a superpower adversary that is desperate to bridge the gap.
Illuminating, timely, and fascinating, Chip War shows that, to make sense of the current state of politics, economics, and technology, we must first understand the vital role played by chips.
The Role Of Artificial Intelligence In Driving A Positive Future
I have had the recent pleasure of talking to various media outlets about the future. I share these interviews and articles via my media menu option. The most recent article captures a discussion I had with Business Insider Nederland. It was a wide ranging discussion about artificial intelligence and its implications to society.
Continue readingRehearsing The Future Of Digital Twins
At an event earlier this week, TCS premiered a new film describing the past, present, and future of digital twins. The production team at TCS did a remarkable job – and I am proud of the end product. Hope you enjoy this journey to the past, present, and future.
The World’s Aging Population
Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.
Pablo Alvarez – Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
That quote from a recent article underscores a series of demographic shifts that play a major role in shaping the future. While science and technology rightfully receive a lot of attention, these societal shifts are just as impactful. That message is resonating, as my recent post on population growth is now my most read post since I started blogging thirteen years ago.
Continue readingHow Do You Feel About Our Emerging Future?
As the media obsesses over artificial intelligence with no shortage of opinions, it made me think about a post from 2016 on techno-optimism versus techno-pessimism. In that post, I defined the terms as follows:
Continue readingSoulful: You In The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
I recently had the opportunity to read a pre-release version of a new book by David Espindola. The timely book – due to launch on May 29 – is titled Soulful: You in the Future of Artificial Intelligence. With the introduction of ChatGPT a few months ago, artificial intelligence is now top of mind. A day doesn’t pass where countless articles explore various aspects of Generative AI. My interaction at events and leadership forums is dominated by the topic. Among the noise are thoughtful voices that provide new insights. David investigates the topic through the lens of multiple domains, including technology, neuroscience, social psychology, economics, philosophy, and theology. I’ve included the book abstract below. You can preorder the book on Amazon. I highly recommend it and have added it to my library.
Continue readingFuturistic Technology And The London Marathon
The Daily Mail just launched an article describing futuristic technologies and their role in improving performance and recovery. Reporter Fiona Jackson does a great job of describing various technologies and their impact. I had the pleasure of participating in the article. The article explores:
Continue readingAgainst The World
I finished reading another good book. This one focused on a twentieth century topic that has surfaced again – anti-globalism. As readers of my blog know, I believe history informs our view of the future. This book provides yet another example of how our current era mirrors the era of the early 20th century. I described those similarities here. The book’s author, Tara Elizabeth Zahra is an American academic who is a Livingston Professor of East European History at the University of Chicago. She graduated from Swarthmore College and from the University of Michigan with a PhD. The book is titled, Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars.
Continue readingThe Virtual You
I have written about digital twins over the past year and participated in several articles describing a future where virtual representations of all things physical are viable. You can explore the topic here. The art of the possible is coming into focus.
Continue readingThe AI Revolution
Jay Anderson, Founder of Project Unity, discusses the AI revolution with Michai Morin, CEO of Coeus Institute. A very timely conversation in light of the growing attention that AI is receiving – attention that is long overdue. Michai made the video available to me in a comment on the LinkedIn poll I launched the other day. The poll has once again received a large response. If you have not already, please respond to this poll.
Continue readingWhere Is Population Growth Actually Heading?
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
Continue readingThe Age Of AI
The other day I reflected on a future of transportation post via Bill Gates. Today, I am writing about his recent post on the age of AI. Driven by the fascination of ChatGPT, I’ve heard the phrase “The Age of AI” multiple times recently. The launch of ChatGPT made what was lurking beneath the surface visible – the same effect that the pandemic had in making the word “resilience” a critical part of our vocabulary. Artificial intelligence was already on this path, but this recent exposure is making it real for many. I asked this question initially in February 2020: Will Artificial Intelligence be more impactful than fire, electricity, or the Internet? I followed it up with a second poll late in 2022. The community answered in the following way.
Continue readingDriving An Autonomous Vehicle Through The Streets Of London
Bill Gates recently drove through the streets of London in an autonomous vehicle and got a front row view of where driving is heading. He describes the scenario in a recent blog post.
That day is coming sooner rather than later. We’ve made tremendous progress on autonomous vehicles, or AVs, in recent years, and I believe we’ll reach a tipping point within the next decade.
Bill Gates
Much as he did when he wrote about artificial intelligence, he believes autonomous vehicles will change transportation as dramatically as the PC changed office work. He states in his blog that right now, we’re close to the tipping point – between levels 2 and 3 of the Society of American Engineers classification system – when cars allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain circumstances. Level 3 use was recently improved in the United States under certain conditions. Advances in sensors and other technologies have accelerated the path – as is the case in practically any scenario we consider. As I recently posted, data is central to these scenarios.
Continue readingData Is The engine That Drives Multiple Scenarios
Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. A visual via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.
Continue readingTipping Points Start With Mindset Shifts
After ChatGPT was launched, I was asked if I believed it represented a tipping point for artificial intelligence (AI). We are surrounded by hype these days and it is easy to dismiss this as another hype cycle. As I considered my response, I focused first on mindset. The early stage of a tipping point starts with a change in how we perceive the world. Major historical tipping points had this in common – the world as we personally perceived it looked the same day-to-day. Then something happens that causes us to question that world. These mindset shifts are one indicator of a tipping point. A shift in mindsets was therefore the first criteria I assessed in answering the question. Has ChatGPT made AI more real to the casual observer?
Continue readingFrom Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration
I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
Continue readingDo Time Horizons Mean The Same As They Used To?
The timing of future scenarios is something I wrote about back in 2017. In that post, I explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. However, timing is therefore dictated by several factors with many unknowns. The pace, complexity, and uncertainty of our world makes timing extremely difficult to understand. That begs the question: should we think about timing the same way? I often hear the following: I don’t want to focus on something that is ten years out. My response is always the same: how do you know it is only ten years out?
Continue reading
Reimagining the Future 