I have written about digital twins over the past year and participated in several articles describing a future where virtual representations of all things physical are viable. You can explore the topic here. The art of the possible is coming into focus.
Continue readingThe AI Revolution
Jay Anderson, Founder of Project Unity, discusses the AI revolution with Michai Morin, CEO of Coeus Institute. A very timely conversation in light of the growing attention that AI is receiving – attention that is long overdue. Michai made the video available to me in a comment on the LinkedIn poll I launched the other day. The poll has once again received a large response. If you have not already, please respond to this poll.
Continue readingWhere Is Population Growth Actually Heading?
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
Continue readingThe Age Of AI
The other day I reflected on a future of transportation post via Bill Gates. Today, I am writing about his recent post on the age of AI. Driven by the fascination of ChatGPT, I’ve heard the phrase “The Age of AI” multiple times recently. The launch of ChatGPT made what was lurking beneath the surface visible – the same effect that the pandemic had in making the word “resilience” a critical part of our vocabulary. Artificial intelligence was already on this path, but this recent exposure is making it real for many. I asked this question initially in February 2020: Will Artificial Intelligence be more impactful than fire, electricity, or the Internet? I followed it up with a second poll late in 2022. The community answered in the following way.
Continue readingDriving An Autonomous Vehicle Through The Streets Of London
Bill Gates recently drove through the streets of London in an autonomous vehicle and got a front row view of where driving is heading. He describes the scenario in a recent blog post.
That day is coming sooner rather than later. We’ve made tremendous progress on autonomous vehicles, or AVs, in recent years, and I believe we’ll reach a tipping point within the next decade.
Bill Gates
Much as he did when he wrote about artificial intelligence, he believes autonomous vehicles will change transportation as dramatically as the PC changed office work. He states in his blog that right now, we’re close to the tipping point – between levels 2 and 3 of the Society of American Engineers classification system – when cars allow the driver to take their hands off the wheel and let the system drive in certain circumstances. Level 3 use was recently improved in the United States under certain conditions. Advances in sensors and other technologies have accelerated the path – as is the case in practically any scenario we consider. As I recently posted, data is central to these scenarios.
Continue readingData Is The engine That Drives Multiple Scenarios
Much our future as it unfolds relies on data. Whether it’s the evolution of digital twins or the ability of AI to aid in gene therapy, data is the engine. As the possibility space expands, so does the challenge associated with an overwhelming amount of data. A visual via Visual Capitalist brings that scenario into focus using a connected car example. This related article highlights some of the potential obstacles. As with every scenario we envision, obstacles exist that slow or negate the scenario, while accelerants do the opposite. Envisioning possible futures requires us to understand both sides of this phenomenon – and doing so on a constant and iterative basis.
Continue readingTipping Points Start With Mindset Shifts
After ChatGPT was launched, I was asked if I believed it represented a tipping point for artificial intelligence (AI). We are surrounded by hype these days and it is easy to dismiss this as another hype cycle. As I considered my response, I focused first on mindset. The early stage of a tipping point starts with a change in how we perceive the world. Major historical tipping points had this in common – the world as we personally perceived it looked the same day-to-day. Then something happens that causes us to question that world. These mindset shifts are one indicator of a tipping point. A shift in mindsets was therefore the first criteria I assessed in answering the question. Has ChatGPT made AI more real to the casual observer?
Continue readingFrom Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration
I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
Continue readingDo Time Horizons Mean The Same As They Used To?
The timing of future scenarios is something I wrote about back in 2017. In that post, I explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. However, timing is therefore dictated by several factors with many unknowns. The pace, complexity, and uncertainty of our world makes timing extremely difficult to understand. That begs the question: should we think about timing the same way? I often hear the following: I don’t want to focus on something that is ten years out. My response is always the same: how do you know it is only ten years out?
Continue readingEcosystems Emerge From The Shadows
My fascination with ecosystems dates back to 2012. By 2014, I was convinced it represented a significant structural change on the horizon. Over a decade later, an ecosystem economy is emerging. A recent book titled The Ecosystem Economy explores the past, present, and future of ecosystems. My thoughts on the topic span multiple posts and were summarized in a post titled A World of Ecosystems.
Continue readingWill Virtual Reality Revolutionize Education?
ChatGPT is getting a lot of attention, and one area driving dialog is education. While the attention is warranted, another innovation is quietly making advances. Historically, education has been a bridge between eras – something that I explored in depth here. If you accept that signals point to a transition between eras, then education will be looked at to provide a bridge. But the question that must be answered is this: can education in its current form be that bridge? I maintain that the answer is no. Can that other innovation help? Virtual reality has quietly advanced. This article explores those advances.
Continue readingInventing The World We Can Proudly Leave To Our Kids
I first met Chunka Mui in 2017 after reading his book titled The New Killer Apps. I then had the pleasure of working with him on a thought leadership course, where he contributed to a panel discussion on driverless cars. Post course, he participated in a related Driverless Car Interview which you can view below.
In the fall of last year, Chunka contributed to another book titled A Brief History of a Perfect Future with co-authors Paul Carroll and Tim Andrews. The book is fascinating on several levels. It’s effective use of storytelling helps us envision the world of 2050. Its broad view will resonate with a broad segment of leaders, as it covers a future view of computing, communication, information, genomics, energy, water, transportation, healthcare, climate change, and trust.
Continue readingA Global Drop In Life Expectancy
Two future scenarios that I have tracked are healthy life extension and radical life extension. To extend our heathy lives is to ensure that we not only live longer, but we do so in a healthy and productive way. The implications of healthy life extension are wide reaching. When combined with several other societal shifts, we find ourselves moving from a four-segment life cycle to a five-segment life cycle.
Continue readingGovernments Need A “Digital Twin Division”
I wrote about the expanding possibility space for digital twins earlier this month. One domain that stands to benefit from the use of digital twins is the public domain. Government use of digital twins in the coming years, if pursued, can help leaders prepare for disruptions and disasters. This article – which I authored – was just published by Government Technology Insider. Several scenarios are described, with a vision towards a specific division focused on the possibility space.
The Aftermath: The Last Days Of The Baby Boom
I finished reading my latest book titled The Aftermath: The Last Days of the Baby Boom and the Future of Power in America. I thoroughly enjoyed the book – and not just because I am a boomer. The baby boom began in the middle of 1946 and ended in 1964. The generation drove a rapid expansion of the population – over the 19-year period, 76 million babies were born.
Continue readingWhat The Community Said about Interacting With Lost Loved Ones
In this post from February 2nd, I once again posed the question of interacting with a lost loved one. This scenario is part of a broad digital twins discussion, whether it is a digital version of a lost loved one, or a version of ourselves that lives on forever. In a post from February 2020, I included this video that showed a women reconnecting with her lost daughter virtually (digital twin):
Continue readingThe Expanding Possibility Space For Digital Twins
I have spent the last several months focused on all aspects of digital twins. The maturing of foundational building blocks has expanded their possibility space. Industrial applications are familiar to many, but the breadth of applications are now more visible. If we view digital twins through the lens of possibilities, we can apply them to the various challenges that continue to impact society. Using some of the UN sustainability goals as a guide, and with the help of ChatGPT via a question and answer session, let’s explore the possibilities:
Continue readingTracking How Our Perspectives Change Over Time
It is interesting to watch perspectives change. In a post last week, I ran a poll exploring a possibility that is expanding: reconnecting with a lost loved one. I ran a similar poll about 1 year ago and launched it again to see if thinking changes with more exposure to possibilities. Please take this quick poll – I will report back on the before and after comparison.
Speaking To Those Who Have Passed
In early 2020 I wrote a Post about reuniting with a lost loved one. Since that time, the capacity to do so has expanded.
Continue readingRememory, the act of talking to the dead, is an idea as old as man himself. For pagans, it was a means of venerating ancestors who had passed. In Christianity, it remains the belief in afterlife through purgatory, heaven, or hell. What used to be science fiction for some and customary beliefs for others has now become a reality, by using the artificial intelligence technology created by DeepBrain AI.
Nana Coupeau – Rememory, The AI that Helps Us Talk to the Dead
Technology Trends To Watch In 2023
The infographic below draws from a recent CB Insights report on eleven Tech Trends To Watch Closely in 2023. As described in the visual, CB Insights used a technology intelligence platform to analyze signals like investment activity, executive chatter in earnings transcripts, media mentions, patents, and more to identify these top eleven trends. A very interesting list with additional detail provided in the report. The invasion of super Apps is an interesting one, as WeChat has long delivered that in the east, but the west has lagged behind. It will be interesting to see if the various obstacles that have prevented its emergence in the west can be overcome. Immortality as a service is not new, but with recent advances and the growing focus of billionaires, it’s easy to see why it made the list.
Continue reading
Reimagining the Future 