Future Scenarios

The Third Age Of Aviation

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Mobility , , , ,

Their electric plane achieved a top speed of 55.9 kilometers per hour on November 16, 2021. The plane also broke the record for the fastest time to climb to 3000 meters (202 seconds) as well as maintaining a record speed of 532 kilometers per hour for over 15 kilometers. What’s more, during those runs, the Spirit of Innovation clocked a top speed of 623 kilometers per hour.

Mark Jessen – on the Rolls-Royce all-electric aircraft

A recent article describes the record-breaking achievements of an all-electric aircraft developed by Rolls-Royce. The first video is a very short view into this program. The second provides a deep look into the future of aviation.

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AI 2022: Creativity, Ubiquity, and Public Policy

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , ,

How far will artificial intelligence (AI) go? In a post earlier this week, I asked for the reader’s perspective on that question. The poll from that post is included here – please contribute your thoughts. In the nearer term, a recent article provides perspective on AI trends in 2022. Three key areas are addressed: creativity, ubiquity, and public policy. I have shown several examples of AI encroaching upon areas of human creativity. The article provides examples that mark a shift in the creative abilities of AI.

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The Driverless Race

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

As the world pursues new mobility solutions, innovative new business models emerge. It is easy to lose faith in a given innovation. The slower than expected rise of autonomous driving is a case in point. But innovation does not stop at the technology level. The video below is a great example that blends autonomous technology with remote operations and a human driver. This remote piece of the model will play out in many scenarios as a stepping stone towards full autonomy. In this example, a remote operator gets the car to the rider, who drives from there. Once arriving at the destination, the remote operator takes over from there. This is similar to the path of autonomous trucking. These niche scenarios accelerate the path towards full autonomy.

Space – The Final Frontier

Frank Diana Space , , , ,

Hypersonic airlines? Is that a byproduct of our focus on space technology? Could I fly from New York to London in 30 minutes? Space is a great example of the broad ecosystems that form around a given domain. It also illuminates the convergence associated with them. For example, space intersects with domains like Internet, communications, GPS, and Intelligence, via satellites, resources, via space mining, energy, via solar panels closer to the sun, as well as wireless energy transmission, travel, via hypersonic flight, tourism, shelter, via space habitats, and military, via space forces. There are other areas of intersection, and each area underscores the growing importance of ecosystems.

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Floating Cities

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Smart City , , , ,

OCEANIX, an ambitious floating architecture concept envisioned to be built off the South Korean coast by BIG – Bjarke Ingel‘s design group. It was first revealed in 2019 and now has received the green light from UN-Habitat and the Metropolitan City of Busan to begin construction. The futuristic sustainable city can also withstand category 5 hurricanes!

Chi Thukral – The World’s First Floating City Designed by BIG & Backed by U.N. Can Withstand Category 5 Hurricanes!
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The Great Resignation

Frank Diana Our Emerging Future, Pandemics, Work , , , , , ,

We like labels. In this case, our current labor market dynamic has been called “The Great Resignation”. This article explores the current resignation phenomenon, providing great insight into why it is happening. There are several survey results presented via The Conference Board’s latest workforce survey. The high-level theme from the survey is that although it’s a culmination of a multitude of factors, employees are seizing this moment of leverage. But, as the article states, it’s also about workers’ pursuit of flexibility and autonomy.

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The Great Reduction: A Metaverse Counterpoint

Frank Diana Blurred Reality, Future Scenarios , , ,

I would define reductionism as the concept of depicting something – or rather mirroring or simulating something – that can pass as a useful and entertaining copy of the real thing.

Gerd Leonhard – The Great Reduction

Yesterday I posted about the Metaverse and shared a video that described how Norway envisioned a future where the Metaverse provided endless possibilities, improving the lives of generations to come. Having seen the post, Futurist Gerd Leonhard shared one of his recent posts with me.

As he and I have discussed in the past, the future is all about balancing the opposing forces of innovation. This has always been true about innovation, reflected in examples like fire positively transforming the world, but also burning down villages – and so it is with the metaverse. The quote and related post above positions the counterpoint to the Norway video. I’ve included a separate video from Gerd’s post below that underscores his message.

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The Metaverse

Frank Diana Blurred Reality, Future Scenarios, innovation accelerators, Virtual Reality , ,

Once a niche concept beloved of tech enthusiasts, the idea of a centralized virtual world, a “place” parallel to the physical world, has careened into the mainstream landscape this year, as epitomized by Facebook’s decision in October to rebrand as Meta

Peter Allen Clark – The Metaverse Has Already Arrived. Here’s What That Actually Means

That quote from a recent article speaks to the growing buzz around the metaverse. As the article states: “the promise of the metaverse is to allow a greater overlap of our digital and physical lives in wealth, socialization, productivity, shopping and entertainment. Essentially, the metaverse is an evolution of the current Internet. Although today’s version involves goggles, tomorrow it’s all about glasses. John Riccitiello, CEO of Unity describes the use of glasses this way: “You’re walking by a restaurant, you look at it, the menu pops up. What your friends have said about it pops up.”

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Slowly Then Suddenly: RoboTaxis Take Paying Customers In China

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , ,

The old adage that change happens slowly then suddenly is on display again in the form of robotaxis in China. While the adage still applies, the time between slow and sudden is collapsing. While we are not where many predicting we would be with autonomous driving, these small steps indicate progress. Advances in autonomous trucking is another step that likely fuels acceleration. This video posted yesterday describes the 67 driverless taxis that are taking paying customers. For now, a taxi firm employee will supervise the trips but the project’s backers are hopeful the fleet will be fully autonomous in the coming years. You can read more here.

The Age Of AI: And Our Human Future

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence, Future Scenarios , , , , , , ,

This shift is neither inherently threatening nor inherently redemptive. Yet it is sufficiently different that it very likely will alter the trajectories of societies and the course of history. Few eras have faced a strategic and technological challenge so complex and with so little consensus about either the nature of the challenge or even the vocabulary necessary for discussing it.

The Age of AI: And Our Human Future – Henry A Kissinger, Eric Schmidt, Daniel Huttenlocher
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RethinkX: Humanity Today – The Great Transformation

Frank Diana Pandemics

In this fifth installment of the RethinkX rethinking humanity series, Tony Seba and James Arbib describe humanity transformed by convergence across five foundational sectors: energy, transport, information, food, and materials. This convergence creates new possibility spaces representing both opportunity and disruption. I like to think of these spaces as a subway map that takes us in multiple directions. The green and red paths highlight the need for society to manage the path towards constructive outcomes. The warning signs are clear: our centralized ways of managing society are outdated.

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Therapeutic Agents That Target Cancer Cells Directly

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Health, Pandemics , , , , ,

Two scenarios in our emerging future are healthy life extension and radical life extension. The former extends are healthy lives and the latter pursues immortality. At the heart of both scenarios lies astounding and rapid advances in science and technology. A recent article provides a great example while exploring the possibility of cancerous tumors eliminating themselves. Per the article, a new technology developed by University of Zurich (UZH) researchers enables the body to produce therapeutic agents on demand at the exact location where they are needed.

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Radical Life Extension

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Health , , , , , , ,

At the furthest point of the future scenario curve sits radical life extension. I use this emerging future visual to depict the exploding number of building blocks that combine to shape the future, challenging our ability to track its complexity. Convergence across aspects of science, technology, economic forces, politics, society, our environment, and a growing conversation around ethics, is creating a highly uncertain world. At the heart of the pace dynamic is the exponential progression of science and technology – reflected in the first curve on the visual.

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Multiple Signals Point To The Need For Global Cooperation

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future, Pandemics , , , , , ,

The pandemic is demonstrating the extent to which high levels of collaboration are required for deeply interconnected societies to manage—and recover from—complex, exponential systemic crises. The fact that viruses are borderless is just another reason why humans need to invest in dramatically re-tooled principles and mechanisms for global co-operation.

Sanjeev Khagram – Why coronavirus will accelerate the fourth Industrial Revolution

Historically, when society has entered a new era, the world has transformed. I believe we are in the early days of a transition to a new era. A major difference between this era and previous eras is the connectedness of our world. That means managing the transition is more complicated. No one nation or organization can ensure a smooth transition. Much like the accelerating shift to multi-stakeholder ecosystems requires collaboration excellence, the path to a future that enhances human development depends on global cooperation.

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Misinformation Is About To Get Worse

Frank Diana Artificial Intelligence , , ,

Technology has always been a double-edged sword – after all fire provided light, warmth, and more calories – but it also burned downed villages. When social media first burst onto the scene, I was a big believer in its power to build community, reconnect people, and move us towards democracy 2.0. I was wrong. The destructive side of that sword is winning – and technological advances are about to make that problem worse.

We are mostly all guilty of locking ourselves into echo chambers. Passing along information that supports our views, but is simply false information. The sheer reach of Facebook, when combined with deep fakes and AI-enabled misinformation, makes the destructive potential frightening. A new book that addresses this topic will launch in November. Eric Schmidt, Henry Kissinger, and MIT Dean Daniel Huttenlocher, co-authored “The Age of AI” in an effort to shine a light on both the positive and negative aspects of our AI future. This Article summarizes an interview with Eric Schmidt that describes the book and the issues.

You can pre-order the book on Amazon. A massively important topic that we should all invest the time to understand.

Education As The Bridge Between Eras

Frank Diana Education, Future Scenarios , , , , ,

In the mid-1800s, when operating steam-driven machines required a skilled workforce, education helped the working class emerge from a period of stagnation. Later, high school helped ease the transition from the farm to the factory and office. We find ourselves straddling two eras again. The world economic forum estimates that sixty-five percent of children today will end up in careers that do not exist yet.

Our goal is to double the world’s GDP. That’s a very audacious goal. But education is the only thing that has ever done it in the past. It can jumpstart entire economies

Sebastian Thrun – Chairman and co-founder of Udacity

So here we are again. Education must emerge as the bridge between eras. It must ensure that those educated embody the qualities and competencies essential to life in a society different than our industrial past.

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Futuristic New Cities

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Smart City , , , , , ,

I believe the smart city represents the intersection of multiple emerging ecosystems. Energy, transport, water, food, health, and more, could come together to create a more equitable and sustainable future. At least that’s the mission of Telosa. A recent article via Oscar Holland describes the vision of billionaire Marc Lore:

The cleanliness of Tokyo, the diversity of New York and the social services of Stockholm: Billionaire Marc Lore has outlined his vision for a 5-million-person “new city in America” and appointed a world-famous architect to design it.

Oscar Holland – Plans for $400-billion new city in the American desert unveiled

Per the article, the 150,000-acre proposal promises eco-friendly architecture, sustainable energy production and a purportedly drought-resistant water system. It embraces a “15-minute city design” that allows residents to access their workplaces, schools and amenities within a quarter-hour commute of their homes. The brief video describes the vision.

Astounding Levels Of Innovation: Energy

Frank Diana Energy, Future Scenarios , , , , , , ,

As we move aggressively into this period of great invention, we will increasingly marvel at astounding levels of innovation. Every domain will experience this phenomenon…and it is accelerating. The articles below make the point very clear. The most encouraging piece of these breakthroughs is growing evidence that our world of extraction is shifting ever so slightly to one of creation. Advances in materials science are critical to solving some of the worlds greatest challenges. The energy transition is underway.

Tesla aims to release $25,000 electric car in 2023, likely will not have a steering wheel

This wildly reinvented wind turbine generates five times more energy than its competitors

Experimental chlorine battery holds 6 times more charge than lithium-ion

What if walking around on your wood floors powered your home?

Hydrogen in aviation: how close is it?

Graphene innovation opens doors to low cost, sustainable, sodium-ion batteries

Crewless Cargo Ship with Zero Emissions Launches

Frank Diana Autonomous Vehicles, Future Scenarios , , , ,

A Norwegian company has created what it calls the world’s first zero-emission, autonomous cargo ship. If all goes to plan, the ship will make its first journey between two Norwegian towns before the end of the year, with no crew onboard. Instead, its movements will be monitored from three onshore data control centers.

Rochelle Beighton – World’s first crewless, zero emissions cargo ship will set sail in Norway

That quote from this recent article describes the worlds first fully electric container ship that is also autonomous. The shipping industry currently accounts for between 2.5% and 3% of global greenhouse gases emissions, according to the International Maritime Organization. This zero emissions cargo ship begins the long process of addressing that problem. It is envisioned that it will replace 40,000 truck journeys a year. The crewless feature of this emerging innovation makes the ship more cost effective to operate. Almost every scenario we look at tells the same transition story. In this case, the transition involves humans loading and unloading the ship initially, but eventually transitioning to all operations using autonomous technology.

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3D Printed Smart Homes

Frank Diana Smart home , ,

When looking into the future, changes to the home may not be the first place you look, yet it will not be spared in this era of transformative change. In fact, the home experience was already changing prior to the pandemic, and in a post-pandemic world, the future home looks different. Other drivers like sustainability and aging in our homes are likely to alter our long-standing views of homes. As an example, a recent article describes a new home that is self-sustaining, autonomous, and 3D Printed. The video provides a glimpse.