Imagine a world transformed not in decades, but years, by a single invention. That’s the potential future with Artificial Intelligence (AI). History offers a fascinating comparison: electricity. This seemingly simple technology took 40 years to fully revolutionize factories, forever altering manufacturing. Along the way, it changed how we lived in our homes, altered the workforce, and transformed various aspects of society. But will AI follow the same slow burn, or are we on the cusp of an exponential leap?
Continue readingHistory
The Human Paradox: Resistant Yet Resourceful In The Face Of Change
James Suzman aptly observed: “History reminds us that we are a stubborn species: one that is deeply resistant to making profound changes in our behavior and habits, even when it is clear that we need to do so. But it also reveals that when change is forced upon us, we are astonishingly versatile.”
Continue readingThe Loom Of Time
I just finished reading a book that instantly drew my attention. Given the role the Middle East has played historically, and considering our current day situation, the region plays a significant role in our geopolitical future. The book titled The Loom of Time by Robert D. Kaplan explores this harsh geography that he considers a register of future great-power struggles across the globe, as it always has been in the past.
Like in the past, thousands of years of imperial rule will continue to cast a long shadow on politics as it is practiced today, in a region where stability remains a prized commodity.
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Education: The Bridge To A New Era
Throughout history, education has been the bridge between eras. Whether it was learning for factory work during the first industrial revolution, or the high school enabled office work of the second, education has played a role in managing the transition. If we assume that we are in the early days of a new era driven by staggering scientific and technological invention, what does education need to do to provide that bridge?
Continue readingCIODAY 2023
Here is a video of the 15 minute keynote I delivered at the CIODAY 2023 event. A wonderful experience all around – culminated by this very professional video launched on YouTube by ICT Media. I posted a synopsis of the keynote via an article written by Hotze Zijlstra in advance of the event.
What History Tells Us About Human Action
Historically, it takes catastrophe to drive humans to act in periods where action is clearly needed. Wars and financial crashes are dominant catalysts throughout history. This poll considers the catalysts that drive humans to act in an era demanding action. Please take a minute to respond below. Pick those catalysts that you feel strongly about – and/or add to the list.
The Catalysts of Change
Two recent books The Fourth Turning is Here and The Coming Wave have each underscored the critical need for human action. But as I described in a post on Learning from History, it takes catalysts to drive actions that ultimately shape our future. A combination of breath-taking innovation, societal forces, depression and war, represent some of the catalysts that established a post-world war II era. As we stare into an uncertain, volatile and complex future, what are the catalysts likely to force human actions? The poll below has been conducted twice, pre-and-post pandemic. However, so much has changed since then. Please help me build on this list and identify the most significant catalysts. Choose all catalysts that you feel will contribute – or add anything that I am missing. For a deeper description of catalysts, please see the lessons from history post.
Continue readingThe Path Of AI: Machine Intelligence or Machine Usefulness
Central to my thinking on innovation is a belief that human advancement is within our grasp. The innovation wheel I developed was inspired by this belief, and while I am an optimist, I also appreciate the role that history plays in providing perspective. Just because we have the opportunity to advance human development doesn’t mean that we will take it. History tells us that opposing forces fight to influence our path. With that as context, I ventured into reading a book titled Power and Progress. Authors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson explore a thousand years of history and contemporary evidence, making the case that progress depends on the choices we make about technology.
Continue readingAn Economic History Of The Twentieth Century
UPDATE: Brad DeLong recently talked about his book on this podcast.
I just finished reading a book titled Slouching Towards Utopia. The book explores the history of what author J. Bradford DeLong calls a long twentieth century. He views the 140-year period between 1870 and 2010 as the most consequential years of all humanity’s centuries. In an earlier book by Robert J. Gordon, he told a similar story of a special century between 1870-1970. The common denominator is the starting point of 1870, or the start of the second industrial revolution. Both books tell a compelling story about a period of economic prosperity never seen in human history.
Continue readingThe Final Stages Of The Fourth Turning
Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this in 2022, surviving author Neil Howe launched a follow up book last year titled The fourth Turning is Here. The number of visits to this original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.
It was 2019 when I finished a book titled The Fourth Turning. I found myself referring to it a couple of weeks ago during a conversation about the cycles of history. I went back to the book after our discussion given the many changes the world experienced since I added it to my library. The repeated cycles of history described by the book remain both fascinating and ominous.
Continue readingWhy Ecosystems? Why Now?
For at least seven years, the concept of ecosystems has been discussed and defined in various ways, while sometimes applied in a context that dilutes its eventual impact. At the highest level, an ecosystem is a network of connected stakeholders interacting in ways that create and capture value for all participants. Why has this ecosystem phenomenon emerged now and why do people expect it to drive structural change? Once again, history may provide an answer.
Continue readingWhat Role Did Geography Play In The Past – And What Does It Mean For The Future?
Another recent article explores the factors that drove civilization success. The article – along with a number of recent books – looks for historical signals that aid in our understanding of the future. In this case, the focus is geography, which the article positions as the reason both individuals and civilizations are the way they are today. If history informs our views of possible futures, then according to the article, geography has influenced history more than any other factor. The author uses Japan as an example.
Continue readingA Reimagining The Future Presentation
I have the pleasure of speaking in various forums about the future. It is a fascinating time to be focused on illuminating the path forward, as the pace, uncertainty, and complexity of our times makes it very challenging. This short three-minute video describes my reimagining the future presentation.
Continue readingThe Journey Of Humanity
Continue readingSince the dawn of the nineteenth century, a split second compared to the span of human existence, life expectancy has more than doubled, and per capita incomes have soared twenty-fold in the most developed regions of the world, and fourteen-fold on Planet Earth as a whole
Oded Galor – The Journey of Humanity
The Journey: Living In Times Of Transition
In the wrap-up to my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will cover why this story is so important to me personally. As was described throughout the series, we live in a time of considerable change. A period that in my view only has a few historical precedents. I could be completely wrong, as I am not a believer in prediction – but the risk is too high to ignore. Through the years, as I have told versions of this story, I sensed that my audience felt no compelling reason to act. They had low levels of urgency when compared to challenges they faced day-to-day. It was that lack of urgency that pushed me towards more effective storytelling to change perception.
Continue readingThe Journey: Dual Paths Of Innovation
In a continuation of my series titled “A Journey through the Looking Glass”, I will touch on two historical paths of innovation. The post picks up from the last one where I explored the building blocks of the future.
THE DUAL PATHS OF INNOVATION
Two major forces are likely to converge in very unpredictable ways. First, the road to abundance described by Peter Diamandis promises to advance our human development in ways not previously thought possible. At the same time, our journey will face several unintended consequences. The intersection of these two forces underscores the importance of focusing on emerging scenarios now, thus enabling human development and mitigating the risk of these unintended consequences.
Continue readingThe Journey: Our Complex, Uncertain, And Volatile Future
My previous posts launched a series that will tell the full story of a reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a series description and a look back in time. The series continues, with each post featuring a piece of our journey. We explored the potential for a phase transition in the last post. In this post, I will now explore the complexity, volatility, and uncertainty that inhibits our ability to envision the future.
Continue readingThe Journey: Our Current World Order
My previous posts launched a series that will tell the full story of my reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a description of the series title and a look backward in time. The series continues, with each post featuring a piece of our journey. We explored the growth of knowledge in the last post. In this post, I will return to history to explore the role that historical cycles have played in shaping our recent history.
Continue readingThe Journey: An Historical Perspective
My previous post launched a series that will tell the full story of my reimagined future. Described as a journey through the looking glass, the story began with a description of the series title and a look backward in time. This second post in the series will add to that historical perspective. Each subsequent post will feature a piece of our journey.
Continue readingSignals From The Past
When I finished a recent book by Alec Ross titled The Raging 2020s, I spent time reflecting on the various signals captured in the book and what they might mean for the future. I wrote about both the book and the signals in early January. My team at TCS then produced this short video to capture the message. I have long believed that history can be very instructive – and these 19 signals could be just that. A special thank you to Kevin Mulcahy, April Harris, and Adam Boostrom for their efforts on the video.
Reimagining the Future 