For years, I’ve championed the power of scenario thinking as a way to “rehearse” the future. In my work, I’ve seen how structured, forward-looking narratives help us move beyond guesswork or simple extrapolation, allowing us to imagine multiple possibilities and develop more resilient strategies. This approach is particularly vital when it comes to the challenges of longevity and the strain on social safety nets like Social Security – areas where demographic shifts, policy decisions, and economic factors converge in ways that few people anticipate. By rehearsing tomorrow’s potential realities today, we equip ourselves with the foresight to adapt, innovate, and thrive no matter which scenario becomes our new normal.
Continue readingRehearsing The Future: Navigating Complexity With Mimi Brooks
In an age of accelerating change and complexity, leadership requires more than traditional planning – it demands a mindset of rehearsal. This principle framed my recent conversation with Mimi Brooks, CEO of Logical Design Solutions, on her Bold Agendas podcast. Our discussion spanned the evolving role of ecosystems, the dual edges of innovation, and the critical importance of adaptability and resilience. Together, we unpacked strategies for thriving in an unpredictable world and explored the transformational shifts leaders must embrace to navigate 2025 and beyond.
Continue readingBeyond The Playbook: How Jayden Daniels Is Bringing Digital Twins Into The NFL Spotlight
According to an article I saw recently, Jayden Daniels, the Washington Commanders quarterback, has been integrating a VR headset developed by a German company to simulate real game scenarios. By customizing AI-driven defensive schemes, he’s able to rack up hundreds of extra mental and physical “reps” without risking injury—far beyond what’s possible in normal on-field practice. According to Daniels, he can now read NFL defenses significantly faster because the simulation lets him face defenders moving at speeds far exceeding typical game conditions. Essentially, he’s getting used to worst-case (or, at least, fastest-case) scenarios in a risk-free environment, so Sunday’s real-life speed feels manageable by comparison.
Continue readingRevisiting Thoughts On The Impact Of AI
Back in 2021, I explored Sundar Pichai’s bold assertion that artificial intelligence could surpass the impact of fire, electricity, and even the Internet. Pichai’s observation, when viewed alongside history’s great technological leaps—from hunter-gatherer to agrarian, and later, agrarian to industrial—may well be on point. AI stands apart by merging the two core drivers of societal transformation: expanding human knowledge and inventions that shape our societies. Now, with AI’s reach expanding across every aspect of daily life, I want to revisit this conversation and am inviting you to participate in a new poll on the impact of AI. So what do you think, will AI be more impactful than prior general purpose technologies like fire, printing press, steam engine and electricity?
The Future Is Not Determined: Lessons from Declining Fertility Rates
Throughout history, demographic trends have shifted in ways that defy prediction. One such phenomenon is the decline in fertility rates, which serves as a powerful reminder that the current state is not the future state. Today, discussions around declining fertility often frame it as a looming crisis, raising fears of aging populations and economic stagnation. Yet, history provides a compelling counter-narrative. The reversal of fertility decline in the mid-20th century, driven by the baby boom, highlights the impossibility of predicting how societal, economic, and geopolitical forces will interact to shape our future.
Continue readingBook Review: “Punishing Putin” By Stephanie Baker
Punishing Putin, by Stephanie Baker, published in September 2024, offers a timely and in-depth examination of the international efforts to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine. This isn’t simply a historical recounting of sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers; Baker delves into the complexities, contradictions, and often unintended consequences of the strategies employed by Western nations and their allies.
Continue readingThe Haier Approach: Structurally Aligning Organizations With The Ecosystem Era
A recent article describes an astonishing achievement enabled by an ecosystem mindset. In 2016, Haier, the world’s largest appliance manufacturer headquartered in China, acquired GE Appliances. As author Bill Fotsch states: “What followed was nothing short of astonishing. Market share, which had languished around a mere two percent for the previous four years, skyrocketed to 20 percent. Haier had achieved what GE could not: a resounding success in the appliance market.”
Continue readingThe Demographic Cliff: A Looming Crisis For Higher Education And The Economy
A recent article highlights a force I have written about often: The demographic shifts that will intensify over the latter half of this decade and into the 2030s. A brief summary of the article and issues follows.
The Looming Demographic Cliff and Its Ripple Effect on Higher Education and the Economy
A silent yet profound shift is taking place in the United States (and globally) one that will reshape higher education and have far-reaching economic consequences. The “demographic cliff,” a term used to describe the decline in the number of 18-year-olds available to enter college, has been looming since the Great Recession triggered a drop in birth rates. This decline is expected to manifest significantly by this fall, presenting an existential challenge to colleges and universities and broader implications for the nation’s economy.
Continue readingBook Review: Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit
Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit is a rare and thought-provoking collaboration among a statesman whose influence has spanned decades, Henry Kissinger, and two technology visionaries, Eric Schmidt and Craig Mundie. Together, they present a sweeping examination of artificial intelligence (AI) – its towering promises, its urgent perils, and its profound implications for human identity, governance, and morality.
Continue readingGenius Across The Ages: From Renaissance Icons To AI
In his final book, Genesis: Artificial Intelligence, Hope, and the Human Spirit, Henry Kissinger reflects on the historical significance of polymaths – those extraordinary individuals whose mastery spans multiple disciplines – and their profound role in shaping human civilization. He argues that polymaths, with their expansive intellectual reach, have served as essential engines of progress and innovation, continually moving humanity forward.
Continue readingA Sweeping Narrative Of Human Progress
In How Economics Explains the World: A Short History of Humanity, Andrew Leigh, a Harvard-trained economist, presents a comprehensive and engaging narrative that delves into the profound impact of economic forces on human history. This book, though concise at under 200 pages, spans a vast timeline from the advent of agriculture to the present day, including the era of artificial intelligence.
Continue readingThe General-Purpose Technology Evolution Framework
General purpose technologies, from the steam engine to electricity, have historically followed a predictable evolutionary path. Each GPT begins at the status quo, disrupting established ways of operating. Next, it moves to point solutions, where its application enhances specific areas without fundamentally transforming broader systems. Over time, these point solutions give way to broader applications, where the technology begins to reshape processes on a larger scale. Finally, the journey culminates in system-level change, where the technology redefines the way society, industries, and systems function as a whole.
Continue readingThe Power Of The Network: How Information Shapes Our World
In his latest work, Nexus, Yuval Noah Harari takes us on a thought-provoking journey through the profound interplay between information networks and humanity’s destiny. From the oral traditions that once bound ancient societies to the digital platforms reshaping our global communities today, Harari unveils the transformative power of information networks – how they have built civilizations, redefined power, and molded individual identities.
At its core, an information network is far more than a collection of nodes and links. It is a living ecosystem, continually expanding and contracting as it facilitates the exchange, evolution, and amplification of ideas. Over millennia, these networks have taken countless forms: the passing of legends around a village fire, the delicately inked manuscripts in medieval monasteries, the printing presses that sparked the early modern information revolution, and now the dazzling web of the Internet. These networks are the lifeblood of human progress – driving innovation, enriching cultures through exchange, and catalyzing the growth of economies. They are how we remember the past, navigate the present, and envision the future.
Continue readingRehearsing For 2025: A Year-End Reflection
As another year draws to a close, I find myself drawn to a practice that transcends simple predictions. Rather than attempting to forecast the future, I focus on rehearsing it – imagining possible scenarios that help us prepare for whatever may unfold. Predictions often fail to capture the complexity, volatility, and cultural nuances of our interconnected world. Rehearsal, by contrast, is an active and flexible exercise: it invites us to consider “what if” and then equip ourselves with the tools, mindsets, and strategies to adapt.
As we look toward 2025, I invite you to consider a set of interrelated themes. These are not forecasts, but lenses through which we can examine global currents. By exploring these possibilities, we do not claim certainty. Instead, we gain the agility and resilience necessary to respond thoughtfully, no matter how events evolve.
Continue readingNexus: A Deep Dive Into Humanity’s Information Age
In his latest book titled Nexus – A Brief History of Information Networks from the Stone Age to AI, author Yuval Noah Harari describes the role that information networks have played in shaping society. A nexus is a connection or series of connections linking two or more things. It often refers to a central or focal point where multiple elements converge or interact. The term is used in various contexts to describe relationships or linkages within systems, networks, or concepts that are interconnected.
Continue reading2025’s AI Revolution
As we look toward 2025, artificial intelligence is poised to bring transformative changes across various industries. A recent article by Julian Horsey highlights how advancements in AI technologies like ChatGPT are set to redefine software development, education, creative fields, and more. I summarize the article below and offer my perspective on how these changes might impact us, exploring their implications and discussing the challenges we need to address to fully realize AI’s potential.
Continue readingThe Second Gilded Age
ANALYSIS OF KEY POINTS:
A recent article discusses the resurgence of “robber barons” in the modern era, particularly highlighted by the 2024 U.S. election. It draws parallels between the industrial magnates of the late 19th and early 20th centuries – such as Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller, and Andrew Carnegie – and today’s tech billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. The core argument is that these contemporary titans wield immense economic and political power, much like their predecessors, and have significant influence over markets, governments, and even the media.
Continue readingLearning From The Past: Unlearning For The Future
In an era of rapid change, the traditional understanding of literacy has become increasingly insufficient. Historically, literacy was defined simply as the ability to read and write – fundamental skills that enabled individuals to participate in society. However, as Alvin Toffler wisely pointed out, the definition of literacy in the 21st century has expanded far beyond these basic abilities. Today, true literacy encompasses the capacity to continuously learn new skills, let go of outdated knowledge, and acquire fresh perspectives. This shift reflects the profound changes in our world, where scientific and technological advancements, societal shifts, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty are constantly reshaping the demands placed on individuals.
Continue readingA Vast Possibility Space
The concept of a “possibility space” in this new era of great invention represents the expanding landscape of opportunities, challenges, and uncertainties that emerge with each new breakthrough. As technological advancements accelerate, we find ourselves surrounded by an increasingly complex and dynamic array of potential futures. Innovations in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, energy, and communication have transformed what is possible, widening the range of scenarios we can imagine and pursue. This broadening of the possibility space means that, for every exciting new capability, there exists an accompanying set of risks and ethical dilemmas, creating a dual path forward that must be navigated with care.
Continue readingLarge Behavior Models: A New Frontier In AI
Large Behavior Models (LBMs) are emerging as a powerful new tool in AI, offering profound insights into complex human, social, and even organizational behaviors. By processing and learning from enormous datasets—ranging from individual actions to societal trends—LBMs can generate nuanced and adaptive responses, enabling machines to interact with humans in ways that feel natural, responsive, and contextually aware. This capability opens a world of transformative possibilities, blurring the lines between human and machine interaction and reshaping how we experience the digital world.
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Reimagining the Future 