I had a great conversation with Evan Schuman, author of a recent article on bot shoppers. As the article describes, bots are autonomous AI agents that compare, select, and buy on behalf of people – are expected to become common within 2–3 years. The piece argues most retailers aren’t ready and will need to redesign the full buying journey for machines: product data, pricing, promotion, checkout, returns, and post‑purchase support. Key challenges flagged include returns at “bot scale,” who earns loyalty points, and new fraud/liability norms (analogous to early e‑commerce’s “Zero Liability” programs).
Continue readingInnovation
The Fork In The Road: Navigating The Future
Throughout history, progress has been shaped by pivotal choices – moments where society stands at a fork in the road, with two distinct paths ahead. One path leads toward advancement, where invention, innovation, and human action address humanity’s most pressing challenges. The other veers toward fragmentation, where barriers to progress emerge, often in the form of resistance, skepticism, or unintended consequences of new technologies.
Continue readingThe Fragile Future: Why Stability Is More Uncertain Than Ever
History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. As I read Robert D. Kaplan’s Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis, I was struck by his argument that the 20th and early 21st centuries have been especially bloody because the stabilizing force of monarchy has vanished. He suggests that despite our moral progress in areas like human rights and the environment, the world remains tightly wound, vulnerable to clashing interests and aggressive authoritarian states. He draws an analogy to Weimar Germany – a moment of fragile democracy, economic strain, and rising nationalism that ultimately collapsed into war.
Continue readingMeeting Today’s Grand Challenges – The Next Wave of Convergence
Throughout this four-part series, we’ve seen how necessity sparks invention – and together, they transform our society in profound ways. Today, our world faces an array of urgent challenges, from climate change and demographic shifts to economic and geopolitical instability, cybersecurity threats, and healthcare crises. These pressures are igniting a fresh wave of convergence, where inventive and innovative responses to pressing needs are poised to reshape our future. As we enter this transformative era, the cycle of necessity and invention reminds us that bold, purpose-driven invention and innovation is our best path forward.
Continue readingThe Converging Forces Of Progress: Necessity, Invention, And Systemic Outcomes
What if the very inventions that propel humanity forward also sow the seeds of our greatest challenges? History shows that progress is rarely a straight line. Instead, it moves in cycles: necessity sparks invention, and inventions converge to reshape society. From the steam engine’s role in the Industrial Revolution to the internet’s impact on globalization, each wave of transformation has brought profound change – economic shifts, new social structures, and unintended consequences. These disruptions, from rising inequalities to environmental crises, often take decades to address. As we stand on the brink of the next great convergence – whether in AI, biotechnology, humanoid robots, cyber, climate or health – we must ask – how can we harness innovation to create a more equitable and sustainable future?
Continue readingThe Necessity-Invention-Convergence Framework
The Necessity-Invention-Convergence Framework provides a structured way to analyze the forces that drive human progress. At its core, necessity serves as the fundamental driver of change, arising from pressing challenges, constraints, or demands. Whether economic, social, environmental, or geopolitical, necessity compels action and forces innovation. Throughout history, this dynamic has played out in transformative ways. The Industrial Revolution was fueled by labor shortages and an increasing demand for goods, just as the Digital Revolution emerged in response to the need for faster, decentralized communication. Today, the global energy transition is being shaped by the necessity of addressing climate change and resource limitations.
Continue readingThe Great Convergence: When Necessity Meets Invention and Innovation
History has shown that when necessity, invention and innovation converge, the result is transformative change. From the steam engine to artificial intelligence, periods of economic, societal, and technological strain have consistently pushed invention innovation to new heights. These inflection points – where high-pressure needs meet breakthrough ideas – can drive unprecedented leaps in productivity, reshaping industries, economies, and even entire civilizations.
Continue readingRehearsing The Future: Navigating Complexity With Mimi Brooks
In an age of accelerating change and complexity, leadership requires more than traditional planning – it demands a mindset of rehearsal. This principle framed my recent conversation with Mimi Brooks, CEO of Logical Design Solutions, on her Bold Agendas podcast. Our discussion spanned the evolving role of ecosystems, the dual edges of innovation, and the critical importance of adaptability and resilience. Together, we unpacked strategies for thriving in an unpredictable world and explored the transformational shifts leaders must embrace to navigate 2025 and beyond.
Continue readingA Vast Possibility Space
The concept of a “possibility space” in this new era of great invention represents the expanding landscape of opportunities, challenges, and uncertainties that emerge with each new breakthrough. As technological advancements accelerate, we find ourselves surrounded by an increasingly complex and dynamic array of potential futures. Innovations in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, energy, and communication have transformed what is possible, widening the range of scenarios we can imagine and pursue. This broadening of the possibility space means that, for every exciting new capability, there exists an accompanying set of risks and ethical dilemmas, creating a dual path forward that must be navigated with care.
Continue readingUnleashing Artificial Intelligence As A General-Purpose Technology
In our era of rapid technological transformation, Artificial Intelligence (AI) stands on the brink of becoming a powerful general-purpose technology (GPT) akin to electricity or the steam engine. These foundational technologies fundamentally reshape industries and redefine society by following an evolutionary trajectory that moves from small improvements to system-level change. History shows us that realizing the full potential of GPTs demands both an understanding of their progressive phases and a forward-thinking mindset, especially to avoid the productivity lags that have plagued previous technological revolutions.
Continue readingUnlocking Human Potential – A New Age Of Invention
Having traced the evolution of knowledge democratization in part one, Let’s explore how this phenomenon ushers in a new age of invention with potentially transformative implications. As we venture further into the 21st century, we find ourselves on the cusp of breathtaking advances, exhibiting striking similarities to past periods of transformative change while presenting unique opportunities and challenges. To understand the significance of this moment, it’s crucial to distinguish between invention and innovation.
Continue readingUnlocking Human Potential: The Convergence Of Knowledge, Invention, And Societal Transitions
In this four-part series, I embark on a journey through the annals of human progress, exploring the intricate convergence between knowledge, invention, and societal transitions. I trace the democratization of knowledge from the dawn of language to our current era, examining how pivotal inventions have not only expanded our capabilities but reshaped the very fabric of civilization. As we stand on the brink of what could be a second scientific revolution, I delve into the dawn of a new age of invention, potentially rivaling or even surpassing the remarkable progress of past eras.
Continue readingChasing the Future: A Look at “The Conservative Futurist”
Since the launch of the TCS study on AI and the future of work, the discussion has centered on the positive sentiment expressed by participants. Many have stated that it is refreshing to see a positive perspective among all the doom and gloom. By sheer coincidence, I was in the middle of reading a book titled The Conservative Futurist as we prepared to launch the study. I finished the book and have added it to my library.
If people found the study refreshing, they will love this book. Remember those sci-fi visions of a world brimming with technological marvels – flying cars, limitless energy, and spacefaring colonies? In “The Conservative Futurist,” James Pethokoukis argues that these visions were not only achievable but are still very much within reach.
Pethokoukis identifies a shift in the cultural landscape. America, once a beacon of optimistic futurism, seems to have grown wary of progress. Fear of job displacement by AI, environmental anxieties, and economic stagnation have replaced the can-do spirit.
Continue readingNext Generation Productivity
I believe the notion of a next generation of productivity is about to ramp…sharing again
In a recent post, I focused on a series of emerging shifts and the transformation pillars that enable a re-imagined future. In this post, I will dive into one of those pillars: next generation productivity. According to Wikipedia, productivity is an average measure of the efficiency of production. It can be expressed as the ratio of output to inputs used in the production process. In a recent Citi Report, they describe the significant slowing of labor productivity growth, which drives a focus on next generation gains. But In spite of technological progress and innovation, measured productivity growth is low by historical comparison. They cite these growth statistics across advanced economies.
Continue readingInnovating For A World In Transition
As I have done each year for the last six years, I had the pleasure of participating in the CEO of the Year Gala sponsored by Chief Executive Group. The event is preceded by roundtable discussions with CEOs, and I have been honored to facilitate one of those sessions each year. The topic for this years roundtable was Innovating for a World in Transition. The short abstract for the session read as follows.
Continue readingInnovation And Human Development
Seven years have passed since I first developed this innovation wheel. In that time, the possibility space is more visible to a larger audience. The conclusion originally drawn by Robert J. Gordon – that we have taken the standard of living as far as it will go – is still suspect to me. In light of the rapid advancements we are seeing, I am re-posting this seven years later.
In a brilliant journey through the economic history of the western world, author Robert J. Gordon looks at The Rise and Fall of American Growth. This recent book focuses on a revolutionary century that impacted the American standard of living more than any period before or after. Our standard of living is typically viewed as the ratio of total production of goods and services (real GDP) per member of the population. But this measure fails to truly capture enhancements to our well-being. Human well-being is influenced by advances in the areas of food, clothing, shelter, energy, transport, education, health, work, information, entertainment, and communications. The special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what the author calls the great inventions. Clearly – as the visual I developed depicts – the great inventions of the second industrial revolution significantly improved our well-being:
Continue readingWhat History Tells Us About Human Action
Historically, it takes catastrophe to drive humans to act in periods where action is clearly needed. Wars and financial crashes are dominant catalysts throughout history. This poll considers the catalysts that drive humans to act in an era demanding action. Please take a minute to respond below. Pick those catalysts that you feel strongly about – and/or add to the list.
The Catalysts of Change
Two recent books The Fourth Turning is Here and The Coming Wave have each underscored the critical need for human action. But as I described in a post on Learning from History, it takes catalysts to drive actions that ultimately shape our future. A combination of breath-taking innovation, societal forces, depression and war, represent some of the catalysts that established a post-world war II era. As we stare into an uncertain, volatile and complex future, what are the catalysts likely to force human actions? The poll below has been conducted twice, pre-and-post pandemic. However, so much has changed since then. Please help me build on this list and identify the most significant catalysts. Choose all catalysts that you feel will contribute – or add anything that I am missing. For a deeper description of catalysts, please see the lessons from history post.
Continue readingFrom Vertical Integration To Horizontal Collaboration
I’ve touched on aspects of this topic in a number of earlier writings on ecosystems – which you can explore here. In this post, I focus on the organizational implications of a transition from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
We are living through an era of experimentation driven by rapid advances in science and technology, uncertainty across every domain, and the fact that no clear answers exist to the challenges looming before us. As we explore these challenges, they force us out of traditional boundaries. As a result, lines are blurring between industries, sectors, the physical and digital worlds, and the real and the virtual worlds. At the structural level, once distinct Industries and sectors are coming together to address challenges and satisfy human need. Future value creation therefore shifts in orientation from vertical integration to horizontal collaboration.
Continue readingThe Most Innovative Countries
Continue readingIn 1960, the U.S. made up nearly 70% of global R&D spending, and by 2020 this had fallen to 30%. From job creation and public health to national security and industrial competitiveness, R&D plays a vital role in a country’s economic growth and innovation, impacting nearly every corner of society—either directly or indirectly.
Dorothy Neufeld – Mapped: The Most Innovative Countries in the World in 2022
Reimagining the Future 