Two recent books The Fourth Turning is Here and The Coming Wave have each underscored the critical need for human action. But as I described in a post on Learning from History, it takes catalysts to drive actions that ultimately shape our future. A combination of breath-taking innovation, societal forces, depression and war, represent some of the catalysts that established a post-world war II era. As we stare into an uncertain, volatile and complex future, what are the catalysts likely to force human actions? The poll below has been conducted twice, pre-and-post pandemic. However, so much has changed since then. Please help me build on this list and identify the most significant catalysts. Choose all catalysts that you feel will contribute – or add anything that I am missing. For a deeper description of catalysts, please see the lessons from history post.
Continue readingThe Coming Wave
Permeating humanity’s oral traditions and ancient writings is the idea of a giant wave sweeping everything in its path, leaving the world remade and reborn.
Mustafa Suleyman – The Coming Wave
That quote from a book published this month is closely aligned with the compelling argument made by the authors of The Fourth Turning. While the latter book describes rebirth in the context of generational turns, this one views it through the lens of AI and Synthetic Biology. The Coming Wave comes to us from Mustafa Suleyman, the Co-Founder of DeepMind. The author defines a wave as a set of technologies coming together around the same time, powered by one or several new general-purpose technologies with profound societal implications. Thinking back, one major study found that twenty-four general-purpose technologies have emerged over the entire span of human history. Artificial intelligence and synthetic biology are likely to add to that number. The question I have asked in a poll is this: will they be more profound in their impact then previous technologies? Consider that fire, language, writing, electricity, the printing press, the steam engine, the Internet, the domestication of plants and animals, and the wheel, are all on the list. To even be considered among that list speaks volumes. But to be thinking in terms of most profound?
Continue readingGlobal Economic Prospects
The prospects for the global economy are a function of convergence. While geopolitics drives economic volatility, societal shifts create uncertainty, and science and technology lead us down divergent paths. The World Economic Forum provided their thoughts in a recent article that looked at global economic prospects.
Continue readingThe Fourth Turning Is Here
Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this last year, the number of visits to this post and the original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.
I first read the book The Fourth Turning in 2019. I was struck by compelling evidence that describes the cycles of history, each lasting the length of human life. The cycle is made up of four turnings, each 20-25 years in duration. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning – when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.
Continue readingThe Metaverse Economy
Continue reading“The Metaverse Economy emerges just as AI bursts into public awareness. Is the metaverse and web3 heading in the same direction? Exploring this question from multiple angles, this book provides a balanced perspective on the possibilities, the headwinds and the potential for advancing our human development. This is essential reading for those who wish to understand this possible future.”
Frank Diana, Managing Partner and Principal Futurist, TCS
The Path Of AI: Machine Intelligence or Machine Usefulness
Central to my thinking on innovation is a belief that human advancement is within our grasp. The innovation wheel I developed was inspired by this belief, and while I am an optimist, I also appreciate the role that history plays in providing perspective. Just because we have the opportunity to advance human development doesn’t mean that we will take it. History tells us that opposing forces fight to influence our path. With that as context, I ventured into reading a book titled Power and Progress. Authors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson explore a thousand years of history and contemporary evidence, making the case that progress depends on the choices we make about technology.
Continue readingThe Transformative Role Of Artificial Intelligence And Automation In The Future Of Warfare
I just finished reading another book. This one was titled Four Battlegrounds – Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. It should be no surprise at a time when everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, that the last three books have been focused on that space.
The author is autonomous weapons expert Paul Scharre. In this informative book, Mr. Scharre describes the competition to develop and implement artificial intelligence, and the implications to our geopolitical order. He uses my favorite storytelling mechanism by using history as a guide. He compares the pending revolution to the industrial revolution, where mechanization and electricity touched every aspect of our lives.
Continue readingHarnessing The Power of Generative AI: A Potential Ally In Addressing Mental Health Challenges
What would ChatGPT do if presented with a suicidal person standing on a suspension bridge? According to this article, it responded with empathy, recognizing the potential feelings of concern, anxiety, fear, and the importance of offering support. As the automation discussion accelerated over the last several years, we focused on those traits that make us distinctly human. Now, we see evidence that even those unique human characteristics may not be so distinct after all.
The results were staggering. The first testing session produced a Z-score of 2.84, while the second session yielded a Z-score of 4.26. Z-scores above 1 indicate results surpassing the average human response. This indicated that ChatGPT’s emotional awareness exceeded that of the general population.
John Palmer – ChatGPT’s Remarkable Abilities Surpasses Human Emotional Awareness
This represents an opportunity to harness the power of generative AI to address mental health challenges. Once again, I asked ChatGPT to help me assess the potential.
Continue readingThe Chip Crisis: Implications For Generative AI’s Progress
Given the pace of innovation, inaction is not an option. Sitting on the sidelines is the fastest path to irrelevance. Rehearsing must be the mindset going forward. There are simply to many building blocks converging, as the combinatorial nature of innovation today accelerates the path of both science and technology.
Frank Diana – The Timing of Future Scenarios
That quote from a post in 2017 explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. As artificial intelligence gains increasing mindshare, it is prudent to identify these markers. A recent article does exactly that by identifying a potential obstacle to continued rapid AI innovation. Access to computing power serves as a critical bottleneck for AI, and Microsoft identified the potentially extended shortage in AI chips as a risk in their recent annual report. As demand for AI accelerates, this represents a significant risk. With the help of generative AI, I captured the implications of an AI chip shortage.
Continue readingThe AI Revolution In Medicine
I finished reading a very timely book on the exploding topic of artificial intelligence. Two very important reasons to read this book: 1) the author’s early work with GPT-4 and 2) the focus on medicine. A dominant conversation occurring in board rooms across the world involves the critical question of generative AI and its impact on a business and/or an industry. One of the authors is Peter Lee, Corporate VP for Research and Incubations at Microsoft. He leads the company’s worldwide research labs. For the past six years, his primary focus has been on AI’s uses in healthcare and the life sciences.
Continue readingReimagining Science
It was the eventual convergence of science and technology that ushered in a period of unprecedented human development. This synergistic relationship exploited two historical pillars of advancement: knowledge and invention. I’ve explored how the growth of knowledge drove invention throughout history, and how that combination elevated the standard of living. Now, in the age of AI, we must consider the possibility of a new era of human development. This time, the possibility space is very broad, as AI is likely to reimagine science.
Continue readingPower And Prediction
As the artificial intelligence (AI) frenzy reaches new heights, everyone is focused on understanding possibilities. Much will be written on the topic, with some exploiting the frenzy and others offering valuable insights. A book I’m reading titled Power and Prediction fits the category of valuable insights. As I read it, multiple thoughts are swirling. The book looked at historical progressions of major general-purpose technologies (steam, electricity, Internet, etc.) that evolved from point solutions to applications, ultimately leading to system-level change. For example, when electricity simply replaced steam within the same system (point solution) the benefits were limited. When electricity drove the system-level redesign of factories, the game changed.
Continue readingChip War
I just finished reading a very important book. The importance of semiconductors to the world cannot be understated. The book titled Chip War explores the past, dating all the way back to the early days of invention. This historical journey brings clarity to our current situation, and explains how we got here. The critical role that chips play across all aspects of society is made clear, as well as the potential dangers that lie ahead.
Any foresight effort should include possible scenarios for the future of chips. This is a critical enabling book as we grapple with an uncertain future. I have added the book to my library.
AMAZON ABSTRACT
An epic account of the decades-long battle to control what has emerged as the world’s most critical resource—microchip technology—with the United States and China increasingly in conflict.
You may be surprised to learn that microchips are the new oil—the scarce resource on which the modern world depends. Today, military, economic, and geopolitical power are built on a foundation of computer chips. Virtually everything—from missiles to microwaves—runs on chips, including cars, smartphones, the stock market, even the electric grid. Until recently, America designed and built the fastest chips and maintained its lead as the number one superpower, but America’s edge is in danger of slipping, undermined by players in Taiwan, Korea, and Europe taking over manufacturing. Now, as Chip War reveals, China, which spends more on chips than any other product, is pouring billions into a chip-building initiative to catch up to the US. At stake is America’s military superiority and economic prosperity.
Economic historian Chris Miller explains how the technology works and why it’s so important, recounting the fascinating events that led to the United States perfecting the chip design, and to America’s victory in the Cold War by using faster chips to render the Soviet Union’s arsenal of precision-guided weapons obsolete. But lately, America has let key components of the chip-building process slip out of its grasp, leading to a worldwide chip shortage and a new war brewing with a superpower adversary that is desperate to bridge the gap.
Illuminating, timely, and fascinating, Chip War shows that, to make sense of the current state of politics, economics, and technology, we must first understand the vital role played by chips.
The Role Of Artificial Intelligence In Driving A Positive Future
I have had the recent pleasure of talking to various media outlets about the future. I share these interviews and articles via my media menu option. The most recent article captures a discussion I had with Business Insider Nederland. It was a wide ranging discussion about artificial intelligence and its implications to society.
Continue readingRehearsing The Future Of Digital Twins
At an event earlier this week, TCS premiered a new film describing the past, present, and future of digital twins. The production team at TCS did a remarkable job – and I am proud of the end product. Hope you enjoy this journey to the past, present, and future.
The World’s Aging Population
Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.
Pablo Alvarez – Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
That quote from a recent article underscores a series of demographic shifts that play a major role in shaping the future. While science and technology rightfully receive a lot of attention, these societal shifts are just as impactful. That message is resonating, as my recent post on population growth is now my most read post since I started blogging thirteen years ago.
Continue readingHow Do You Feel About Our Emerging Future?
As the media obsesses over artificial intelligence with no shortage of opinions, it made me think about a post from 2016 on techno-optimism versus techno-pessimism. In that post, I defined the terms as follows:
Continue readingSoulful: You In The Future Of Artificial Intelligence
I recently had the opportunity to read a pre-release version of a new book by David Espindola. The timely book – due to launch on May 29 – is titled Soulful: You in the Future of Artificial Intelligence. With the introduction of ChatGPT a few months ago, artificial intelligence is now top of mind. A day doesn’t pass where countless articles explore various aspects of Generative AI. My interaction at events and leadership forums is dominated by the topic. Among the noise are thoughtful voices that provide new insights. David investigates the topic through the lens of multiple domains, including technology, neuroscience, social psychology, economics, philosophy, and theology. I’ve included the book abstract below. You can preorder the book on Amazon. I highly recommend it and have added it to my library.
Continue readingFuturistic Technology And The London Marathon
The Daily Mail just launched an article describing futuristic technologies and their role in improving performance and recovery. Reporter Fiona Jackson does a great job of describing various technologies and their impact. I had the pleasure of participating in the article. The article explores:
Continue readingAgainst The World
I finished reading another good book. This one focused on a twentieth century topic that has surfaced again – anti-globalism. As readers of my blog know, I believe history informs our view of the future. This book provides yet another example of how our current era mirrors the era of the early 20th century. I described those similarities here. The book’s author, Tara Elizabeth Zahra is an American academic who is a Livingston Professor of East European History at the University of Chicago. She graduated from Swarthmore College and from the University of Michigan with a PhD. The book is titled, Against the World: Anti-Globalism and Mass Politics Between the World Wars.
Continue reading
Reimagining the Future 