Our world certainly has a way of moving quickly. Keeping pace with a myriad of advancements and scenarios is a full-time job. I have spent the better part of one year focused on History – as I look for evidence of similar periods in the past. That work has been very instructive. The results of that analysis – along with an ever changing view of the future – have been incorporated into the latest version of my presentation. You can view or download the current version Here.
Our Emerging Future
All aspects of our emerging future
Futuristic Developments in the next Ten Years
“When considering potential risks from future technology, one should not be content with merely analyzing what’s likely to happen—instead, one should look at what’s possible, even if unlikely.” – Jaan Tallinn, founding member of Skype, and co-founder of the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk
Continue readingWages are flatlining around the world
The World Economic Forum focused on wages in a recent Article that described a new Report from Hays, the world’s largest specialist recruiter. They highlight another year of change ranging from the tensions rising over trade relations between the US and China; to the uncertainty around Britain leaving the European Union; to the increasing levels of scrutiny against ’Big Tech’ and the ensuing debate surrounding privacy and content.
The IMF forecast a slowdown in global real GDP growth due in large part to the fear of the unknown. The Global Skills Index developed by Hays tracks the trends facing the global labor market. Here are some of the key findings:
Society 5.0
I found a very refreshing Article today describing Japan’s vision for the fifth iteration of society. Our hunter-gatherer days represent the first iteration, with agriculture coming in as number two and the industrial and information revolutions rounding out the next two. I’ve written about the Tipping Points in human history – and this vision of a future society is aligned with my point of view on the next tipping point. With each tip, we have experienced Unintended Consequences. Big visions such as these would be wise to ensure a balancing of the Opposing forces of Innovation.
UPS gets FAA clearance to roll out a fleet of delivery drones
For the first time, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has given broad permission to create a fleet of drones to deliver packages with very few limitations on Tuesday – the first time it’s given such broad permission to a delivery company. The delivery program is described in this Article.
Listen to UPS Chairman and CEO describe the Drone Airline that UPS is now going to build out.
Just another example of how the Mobility Ecosystem is evolving rapidly, and the stakeholders within the ecosystem continue to shift. Who will be the dominant players in the ecosystem? One thing is certain: as mobility experiences are altered, traditional companies and their role within the ecosystem will shift – or their roles will be diminished.
The Education Ecosystem
I had a call a while back with education entrepreneur Nick Burnett. Nick shares my passion for rethinking a learning paradigm that was built in a different era. In this world of rapid change, where information is abundant and the shelf-life of skills is short, learning is central to our quest for improved well-being.
During the first revolution, it was education that finally shifted the plight of the working class. In the early days of mass production, it was the introduction of high school that allowed workers to meet the skill set demands of new roles on assembly lines and in the office. This time around, the challenge is greater. The speed dimension promises to complicate the re-skilling requirements of an automated future. It will indeed take an education ecosystem to meet the challenge. In his latest article, Nick focuses on this education ecosystem – well worth the quick read.
MIT Report on the Future of Work
In a recent Article posted on the Singularity Hub, the author describes the first report of the MIT Task Force on the Work of the Future. This group of MIT academics was set up by MIT President Rafael Reif in early 2018 to investigate how emerging technologies will impact employment and devise strategies to steer developments in a positive direction. The primary finding from this report is that it’s the quality of the jobs we should worry about – not the quantity.
Technology Trap
I recently added a fascinating book titled Technology Trap to my Book Library. Author Carl Benedikt Frey has done some important work in partnership with Michael A. Osborne evaluating the impact of automation on the Future of Work. In this new work of applied history, Frey draws on past revolutions to look at possible corollaries. It was Winston Churchill that said: The further Backward you Look, the Further Forward you can See. That quote has stuck with me, prompting my Looking back to see Ahead. Here is the book abstract:
Strategic M&A in an Era of Ecosystem-Driven Collaboration
In July I facilitated a CEO round table discussion focused on Ecosystems, collaboration, and the role of strategic Mergers and Acquisitions. It was a fascinating discussion captured in this Post-Session Article.
Competing in the Age of Ecosystems
I recently partnered with colleagues Bill Quinn, Kevin Mulcahy, and Rose Castellon-Rodriguez on an article for TCS Perspectives. You can Download the Article or view it Here.
The Augmented Age
Maurice Conti is the Chief Innovation Officer at Alpha focused on what he calls the Augmented Age. He talks about it this way: We’re heading for a future where our natural human capabilities are going to be radically augmented in three ways: Computational systems will help us think. Robotic systems will help us make. And a digital nervous system will connect us to the world far beyond what our natural nervous system can offer.
Rehearsing the Future
I had the pleasure of participating on a radio show titled Geeks, Geezers, and Googlization. Hosts Ira Wolfe and Keith Campagna did a great job of facilitating our discussion about the future. Check out their Summary of our conversation, and/or listen to our conversation via this rebroadcast.
Looking Back to See Ahead
The further Backward you Look, the Further Forward you can See – Winston Churchill
I really like this quote from Winston Churchill. In a previous post on Learning from History, I was trying to say the same thing. One of the key learnings in looking back at our most transformative period (late nineteenth, early twentieth century), was the Convergence that occurred across multiple domains. I had developed a visual to capture a convergence phenomenon that took place over a one hundred year period – some have called this a Special Century. I updated the visual with new content (click the visual to expand). The color scheme shows the convergence that occurred across the business, science, technology, political, societal and economic domains. The red boxes represent the Catalysts that drove this convergence.
Embracing the Collaborative Nature of Ecosystems
Thoughts I shared at this years TCS Innovation Forum in New York City.
The Story of Our Emerging Future
Story telling is the most effective way to communicate – and in times of complexity, uncertainty, and rapid pace, it becomes even more critical. Telling stories about the future requires a broad view of an increasing number of building blocks. The visual I use attempts to look at these building blocks and the various ways they combine to enable future scenarios. The scenarios themselves are combinatorial – converging on one and other in ways that transform how we think about the future. A deeper explanation of the visual can be found Here.
Systems Thinking: The Key to Thriving in a Complex Future
Our future is very complex. The sheer number of building blocks complicates not just our ability to see the future, but any chance we have to navigate it. As these building blocks combine in ever increasing ways, the challenges multiply. Leaders of tomorrow will move towards systemic leadership, having an ability to connect dots. Innovation will move from a myopic view of offerings to systems innovation.
To accomplish this, systems thinking must be embraced by leaders. Systems thinking is a holistic approach to analysis that focuses on the way that a system’s constituent parts interrelate and how systems work over time and within the context of larger systems. As leaders, we struggle with this holistic approach, choosing instead to focus on short term versus long term, and delivering immediate results versus positioning for the future. This focus is in direct conflict with where our complex future is taking us.
Reimagining the Future
Future thinking has often focused on a three-horizon framework that allows for the continued advancement of core business, while planning for emerging opportunities. I believe the challenge these days is time compression associated with rapid advancement. When someone says to me: “I’m not worried about five years from now”, my reaction is always the same. What looks to be five years out is likely only 18 months away: A phenomenon I describe in this piece on Acceleration.
Optimist or Pessimist?
In late 2016, having just finished reading The Rise and Fall of American Growth, I was thinking about an underlying theme of the book – the views of techno-optimists versus those of techno-pessimist. In the context of the books narrative, the techno-optimist believes that future innovations will indeed drive a resurgence of growth – albeit at the expense of jobs. The pessimist sees no return to growth and believes our best innovations are behind us. Two years ago, I posed a question via a Post: Are you a techno-optimist or techno-pessimist?
Dots in a Complex System are Connecting Rapidly
In their now popular book on The Second Machine Age Andrew McAfee and Eric Brynjolfsson describe one of the forces behind our accelerating pace. This force could be key to understanding the dynamics of our environment; the number of potentially valuable building blocks is exploding around the world, and the possibilities are multiplying like never before.
Unlearning May be our Biggest Challenge
The illiterate of the 21st century will not be those that can’t read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn, and relearn – Alvin Tofler, Rethinking the Future.
As we all become life long learners, unlearning could be our biggest challenge. Our mental models prevent us from seeing the need for change. We are creatures of the only world we have individually known. Even if you are one hundred years old, the mental models established after humanities second Tipping Point dominate your thinking. They form our intuitions and belief systems.
Reimagining the Future 