As we stand on the precipice of 2024, a year brimming with potential and uncertainty, experts across various domains will offer their insights into the shape of things to come. From scientific breakthroughs to geopolitical shifts, from societal transformations to environmental challenges, these insights paint a multifaceted portrait of the year ahead. I’ll add my thoughts to the conversation. The uncertainty that exists across these domains adds to the difficulty in understanding possible futures. It is convergence that occurs across them that illuminates the possibilities.
Continue readingAuthor: Frank Diana
Permacrisis – A Plan To Fix A Fractured World
I finished reading my most recent book titled Permacrisis, authored by Gordon Brown, Mohamad A. El-Erian, and Michael Spence. The book was recommended by Mimi Brooks, who did a review of it here. This was a very impactful book written by three of the most internationally respected and experienced thinkers of our time. As described by the Amazon abstract, the book focused on a cascade of crises: sputtering growth, surging inflation, poor policy responses, an escalating climate emergency, worsening inequality, increasing nationalism and a decline in global co-operation. While they do a great job of identifying the challenges, they also prescribe solutions. Given their experience base, we should pay very close attention to both sides of this story. I have added the book to my library and provide a brief summary below.
The world is undergoing a profound transformation marked by multifaceted economic, social, and technological shifts, altering the familiar landscape of the past three decades. This book delves into key messages regarding the challenges and opportunities presented by these changes, emphasizing the importance of understanding evolving dynamics.
Continue readingCIODAY 2023
Here is a video of the 15 minute keynote I delivered at the CIODAY 2023 event. A wonderful experience all around – culminated by this very professional video launched on YouTube by ICT Media. I posted a synopsis of the keynote via an article written by Hotze Zijlstra in advance of the event.
Keynote Synopsis
ICT Media hosted CIODAY 2023 in Amsterdam last week – a very professionally run event at an amazing venue. I had the pleasure of providing the opening keynote. In the lead up to the event, they wrote an article which I believe captures the spirit of my presentation better than anything I have seen prior – with one caveat. I am not a big believer in prediction – especially in highly uncertain times like our current era. Instead, I believe in a constant rehearsing of the future, asking the what-if questions to avoid the what-now questions. That caveat aside, a great article that I am sharing here to my Blog audience and providing a Link to original article.
Continue readingLearning From The Early 19th Century
One of the more eye-opening narratives in the story arc of my presentation is the comparison of our current era to the 1920s. Given the catastrophic period that followed, lessons can be learned. A great period of invention ran in parallel, helping to establish our modern standard of living. But there was another period of invention that is also very instructive. That period dates to the early 19th century and is closely associated with the Luddite movement and the birth of the factory system. In a book released this September, Brian Merchant explores this period in history and its similarities to our current era. If the 1920s sowed the seeds of the conflicts that followed, the early 19th century sowed the seeds of labor movements, the modern welfare state, and of all things, science fiction.
Continue readingSeven Crashes
I finished reading my latest book. Harold James’ book, Seven Crashes, is a history of financial crises that have shaped globalization. The book examines seven turning points in financial history, from the depression of the 1840s through the Great Depression of the 1930s to the Covid-19 crisis. James shows how some crises prompted by a lack of supply, like the oil shortages of the 1970s, lead to greater globalization as markets expand and producers innovate to increase supply. In contrast, other crises, such as the Great Depression, led to a smaller, less prosperous world.
Continue readingThe Forces Driving Our Economic Future
At the heart of our uncertain times lies an astounding level of convergence, with historical precedent dating back to the second industrial revolution and the decades that followed. It was Robert J. Gordon in his brilliant journey through the economic history of the western world that illuminated this convergence. In The Rise and Fall of American Growth, Gordon focused on a revolutionary century that impacted the modern standard of living more than any period before or after. It was also Gordon that concluded the world will never see a period like that again. It was his conclusion that prompted my development of a future innovation visual that sought to dispute it. While technology has driven human advancement for centuries, it has not done so in isolation. In periods like the one described by Gordon; other domains play a role in determining where technology takes us. This quote says it best:
Continue readingInnovation And Human Development
Seven years have passed since I first developed this innovation wheel. In that time, the possibility space is more visible to a larger audience. The conclusion originally drawn by Robert J. Gordon – that we have taken the standard of living as far as it will go – is still suspect to me. In light of the rapid advancements we are seeing, I am re-posting this seven years later.
In a brilliant journey through the economic history of the western world, author Robert J. Gordon looks at The Rise and Fall of American Growth. This recent book focuses on a revolutionary century that impacted the American standard of living more than any period before or after. Our standard of living is typically viewed as the ratio of total production of goods and services (real GDP) per member of the population. But this measure fails to truly capture enhancements to our well-being. Human well-being is influenced by advances in the areas of food, clothing, shelter, energy, transport, education, health, work, information, entertainment, and communications. The special century (1870 – 1970) that followed the Civil War was made possible by a unique clustering of what the author calls the great inventions. Clearly – as the visual I developed depicts – the great inventions of the second industrial revolution significantly improved our well-being:
Continue readingQuantum Supremacy
Quantum computing was a hot topic in recent sessions, so i thought I’d brush up on all things quantum. To do that, I read a book titled Quantum Supremacy. Author Michio Kaku explores the rise of quantum computers and its potential to address many of our societal challenges. He envisions an end to the age of silicon and digital and the dawn of the quantum age. We learn the fundamentals of quantum mechanics and the staggering growth in compute capacity that it drives.
Continue readingSocietal Signals Are Flashing
This latest article via the World Economic forum highlights a fundamental truth about the current era: signals are flashing across multiple domains. Although much attention is paid to advancements in science and technology, signals across society, geopolitics, economy and environment are converging. As described in various posts on the topic, convergence itself is a signal. In similar periods in the past, when multiple domains were in a state of flux, it was their convergence that shaped the future. In the referenced article, it is a societal signal that is flashing. If we view these signals as building blocks, it is the model that emerges that allows us to explore their combinations.
Continue readingWhat History Tells Us About Human Action
Historically, it takes catastrophe to drive humans to act in periods where action is clearly needed. Wars and financial crashes are dominant catalysts throughout history. This poll considers the catalysts that drive humans to act in an era demanding action. Please take a minute to respond below. Pick those catalysts that you feel strongly about – and/or add to the list.
The Catalysts of Change
Two recent books The Fourth Turning is Here and The Coming Wave have each underscored the critical need for human action. But as I described in a post on Learning from History, it takes catalysts to drive actions that ultimately shape our future. A combination of breath-taking innovation, societal forces, depression and war, represent some of the catalysts that established a post-world war II era. As we stare into an uncertain, volatile and complex future, what are the catalysts likely to force human actions? The poll below has been conducted twice, pre-and-post pandemic. However, so much has changed since then. Please help me build on this list and identify the most significant catalysts. Choose all catalysts that you feel will contribute – or add anything that I am missing. For a deeper description of catalysts, please see the lessons from history post.
Continue readingThe Coming Wave
Permeating humanity’s oral traditions and ancient writings is the idea of a giant wave sweeping everything in its path, leaving the world remade and reborn.
Mustafa Suleyman – The Coming Wave
That quote from a book published this month is closely aligned with the compelling argument made by the authors of The Fourth Turning. While the latter book describes rebirth in the context of generational turns, this one views it through the lens of AI and Synthetic Biology. The Coming Wave comes to us from Mustafa Suleyman, the Co-Founder of DeepMind. The author defines a wave as a set of technologies coming together around the same time, powered by one or several new general-purpose technologies with profound societal implications. Thinking back, one major study found that twenty-four general-purpose technologies have emerged over the entire span of human history. Artificial intelligence and synthetic biology are likely to add to that number. The question I have asked in a poll is this: will they be more profound in their impact then previous technologies? Consider that fire, language, writing, electricity, the printing press, the steam engine, the Internet, the domestication of plants and animals, and the wheel, are all on the list. To even be considered among that list speaks volumes. But to be thinking in terms of most profound?
Continue readingGlobal Economic Prospects
The prospects for the global economy are a function of convergence. While geopolitics drives economic volatility, societal shifts create uncertainty, and science and technology lead us down divergent paths. The World Economic Forum provided their thoughts in a recent article that looked at global economic prospects.
Continue readingThe Fourth Turning Is Here
Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this last year, the number of visits to this post and the original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.
I first read the book The Fourth Turning in 2019. I was struck by compelling evidence that describes the cycles of history, each lasting the length of human life. The cycle is made up of four turnings, each 20-25 years in duration. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning – when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.
Continue readingThe Metaverse Economy
Continue reading“The Metaverse Economy emerges just as AI bursts into public awareness. Is the metaverse and web3 heading in the same direction? Exploring this question from multiple angles, this book provides a balanced perspective on the possibilities, the headwinds and the potential for advancing our human development. This is essential reading for those who wish to understand this possible future.”
Frank Diana, Managing Partner and Principal Futurist, TCS
The Path Of AI: Machine Intelligence or Machine Usefulness
Central to my thinking on innovation is a belief that human advancement is within our grasp. The innovation wheel I developed was inspired by this belief, and while I am an optimist, I also appreciate the role that history plays in providing perspective. Just because we have the opportunity to advance human development doesn’t mean that we will take it. History tells us that opposing forces fight to influence our path. With that as context, I ventured into reading a book titled Power and Progress. Authors Daron Acemoglu and Simon Johnson explore a thousand years of history and contemporary evidence, making the case that progress depends on the choices we make about technology.
Continue readingThe Transformative Role Of Artificial Intelligence And Automation In The Future Of Warfare
I just finished reading another book. This one was titled Four Battlegrounds – Power in the Age of Artificial Intelligence. It should be no surprise at a time when everyone wants to talk about artificial intelligence, that the last three books have been focused on that space.
The author is autonomous weapons expert Paul Scharre. In this informative book, Mr. Scharre describes the competition to develop and implement artificial intelligence, and the implications to our geopolitical order. He uses my favorite storytelling mechanism by using history as a guide. He compares the pending revolution to the industrial revolution, where mechanization and electricity touched every aspect of our lives.
Continue readingHarnessing The Power of Generative AI: A Potential Ally In Addressing Mental Health Challenges
What would ChatGPT do if presented with a suicidal person standing on a suspension bridge? According to this article, it responded with empathy, recognizing the potential feelings of concern, anxiety, fear, and the importance of offering support. As the automation discussion accelerated over the last several years, we focused on those traits that make us distinctly human. Now, we see evidence that even those unique human characteristics may not be so distinct after all.
The results were staggering. The first testing session produced a Z-score of 2.84, while the second session yielded a Z-score of 4.26. Z-scores above 1 indicate results surpassing the average human response. This indicated that ChatGPT’s emotional awareness exceeded that of the general population.
John Palmer – ChatGPT’s Remarkable Abilities Surpasses Human Emotional Awareness
This represents an opportunity to harness the power of generative AI to address mental health challenges. Once again, I asked ChatGPT to help me assess the potential.
Continue readingThe Chip Crisis: Implications For Generative AI’s Progress
Given the pace of innovation, inaction is not an option. Sitting on the sidelines is the fastest path to irrelevance. Rehearsing must be the mindset going forward. There are simply to many building blocks converging, as the combinatorial nature of innovation today accelerates the path of both science and technology.
Frank Diana – The Timing of Future Scenarios
That quote from a post in 2017 explored the influencers of timing, namely obstacles and accelerants. These markers drive the foresight required to understand the path of possible futures and some indicator of timing. As artificial intelligence gains increasing mindshare, it is prudent to identify these markers. A recent article does exactly that by identifying a potential obstacle to continued rapid AI innovation. Access to computing power serves as a critical bottleneck for AI, and Microsoft identified the potentially extended shortage in AI chips as a risk in their recent annual report. As demand for AI accelerates, this represents a significant risk. With the help of generative AI, I captured the implications of an AI chip shortage.
Continue reading
Reimagining the Future 