Politics

Why No Single Force Changes The World

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RECAP FROM THE SERIES SO FAR

In the first post, I described the sense that the world’s operating logic is turning over. In the second, I explored what that feels like in daily life — the tightening, the pressure, the sense that everything is connected. The third post revealed the pattern beneath these moments: a four-stage rhythm of accumulation, compression, instability, and reordering that has shaped every major transition in history.

This post turns to a deeper question. If these shifts are so powerful, what triggers them? The answer is rarely what we expect.

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Why Everything Feels Like It’s Changing At Once

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Recap from Last Post

I opened this series by exploring why the world feels unsettled in ways that don’t fit the usual explanations. I introduced the idea of systemic change: moments when multiple parts of civilization become active at the same time, pushing and amplifying one another. I described today as a phase of compression, where pressures build across domains faster than old structures can absorb them. This post will bring that idea down to everyday experience. What do phase transitions feel like in normal life?

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When Systems Turn Over

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This post marks the beginning of a new series on systemic change — an exploration of how civilizations transform at the deepest level. Over the coming weeks, we’ll trace the rhythm of history, examine the forces that drive reordering, and explore why this moment may be the first time in history when every domain of human life is active at once. Each post will build on the last, revealing how science, technology, society, geopolitics, economics, philosophy, and the environment are converging toward a new operating logic for civilization.

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The Evolution Of Political Order — And What Might Come Next

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , ,

Every society invents new ways to organize power. Each system begins as an answer to the limits of the one before it – and eventually becomes the next problem to solve. As our world grows more interconnected, the frameworks that once defined legitimacy and belonging are starting to crack. Something new is forming in the spaces between.

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Book Review: How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle By Ray Dalio

Frank Diana Economics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , ,

Ray Dalio has long been a student of cycles – economic, financial, and societal. His latest book, How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle, is a sweeping examination of how nations rise, peak, and decline, often repeating the same mistakes across history. For anyone trying to make sense of today’s turbulent geopolitical and economic environment, Dalio’s work is both a warning and a guide.

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Pressure Points And Catalysts: Shaping Our World

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I introduced the notion of pressure points and catalysts in an earlier post. Here are the results of my analysis.

Introduction

The trajectory of human civilization is not merely a linear progression but a complex interplay of forces that build, converge, and occasionally erupt into periods of profound transformation. Understanding these dynamics requires a framework centered on Pressure Points and Catalysts – concepts crucial to comprehending how global systems evolve and redefine themselves.

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Building Possibility Chains: Mapping Disruption Across A Converging World

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As I’ve explored in Post One and Post Two of this series, history doesn’t move in straight lines. It moves in cycles of buildup and release – of pressure and systemic change. Across time, humanity has navigated moments when systems fray, institutions falter, and norms break down. These moments are rarely surprises. They’re preceded by converging signs – warning lights blinking across domains that something foundational is under strain. We are in such a moment now.

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Navigating A World Of Permanent Crisis: A Review Of Robert D. Kaplan’s Waste Land

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Robert D. Kaplan’s latest book, Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis, presents an unsettling yet necessary exploration into our current global predicament. True to Kaplan’s distinguished career, this book expertly connects historical contexts with today’s increasingly complex reality, a practice that resonates deeply with my own work on examining historical lessons to better understand our evolving future.

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The Fragile Future: A Deeper Look At 2035

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Yesterday, I launched a post titled The Fragile Future, exploring the uncertainty that lies ahead and the forces shaping our world. Today, I came across an article from the Atlantic Council titled Global Foresight 2025, which presents a range of possible futures through a survey of strategists and foresight practitioners. Their findings paint a stark picture of what 2035 might hold—a world teetering between worsening geopolitical conflict and cautious optimism about technology’s role in shaping our collective destiny.

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The Fragile Future: Why Stability Is More Uncertain Than Ever

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , ,

History does not repeat, but it often rhymes. As I read Robert D. Kaplan’s Waste Land: A World in Permanent Crisis, I was struck by his argument that the 20th and early 21st centuries have been especially bloody because the stabilizing force of monarchy has vanished. He suggests that despite our moral progress in areas like human rights and the environment, the world remains tightly wound, vulnerable to clashing interests and aggressive authoritarian states. He draws an analogy to Weimar Germany – a moment of fragile democracy, economic strain, and rising nationalism that ultimately collapsed into war.

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The Persuasion Paradox – Reclaiming Truth In The Age Of Digital Persuasion

Frank Diana Knowledge, The Third Tipping Point , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

At the heart of the Persuasion Paradox lies a profound contradiction between the transformative promise of the Information Age and its unintended consequences. Initially, the internet was envisioned – and widely celebrated – as a revolutionary tool for democratizing knowledge, dismantling barriers to information access, and fostering global understanding. Yet, we now face a reality starkly different from that optimistic vision. The abundance of information, rather than elevating clarity and truth, has birthed a “noise-to-signal” problem, where misinformation, disinformation, and emotionally charged narratives often obscure the truth. This phenomenon resonates deeply with themes I’ve explored previously – the democratization of knowledge and the unintended consequences inherent in rapid technological and societal transitions.

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The Eurasian Century – Navigating Global Convergence

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , , ,

I recently finished reading The Eurasian Century: Hot Wars, Cold Wars, and the Making of the Modern World by Hal Brands, a sweeping historical analysis that illuminates Eurasia’s enduring centrality in global geopolitics. The author convincingly demonstrates how Eurasia’s vast resources, immense population, and strategic location have continuously positioned it as the crucible of global power struggles – from the ideological confrontations of the twentieth century to today’s emerging geopolitical tensions. His narrative offers profound lessons for leaders navigating an increasingly interconnected and uncertain global landscape.

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2025 Global Risks Report

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Every year, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report offers a critical snapshot of the forces shaping our world. The 2025 edition paints a picture of escalating tensions, deepening fractures, and an accelerating transformation of our societal foundations. As we navigate an increasingly complex landscape, the report underscores the necessity of adaptability, resilience, and the capacity to thrive – what I call the ART of navigating uncertainty.

More than ever, this year’s report validates the idea that we are in a period of convergence – where geopolitical instability, technological disruption, societal shifts, economic volatility, environmental stress, and philosophical reorientation are colliding in ways that will redefine our future. Below, I’ve categorized the major risks identified in the report under the seven core convergence domains that I frequently discuss: science, technology, society, geopolitics, economy, environment, and philosophy.

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Book Review: “Punishing Putin” By Stephanie Baker

Frank Diana Geopolitics, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , ,

Punishing Putin, by Stephanie Baker, published in September 2024, offers a timely and in-depth examination of the international efforts to hold Russia accountable for its invasion of Ukraine. This isn’t simply a historical recounting of sanctions and diplomatic maneuvers; Baker delves into the complexities, contradictions, and often unintended consequences of the strategies employed by Western nations and their allies.

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A Sweeping Narrative Of Human Progress

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In How Economics Explains the World: A Short History of Humanity, Andrew Leigh, a Harvard-trained economist, presents a comprehensive and engaging narrative that delves into the profound impact of economic forces on human history. This book, though concise at under 200 pages, spans a vast timeline from the advent of agriculture to the present day, including the era of artificial intelligence.

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The Second Gilded Age

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ANALYSIS OF KEY POINTS:

A recent article discusses the resurgence of “robber barons” in the modern era, particularly highlighted by the 2024 U.S. election. It draws parallels between the industrial magnates of the late 19th and early 20th centuries – such as Cornelius Vanderbilt, John D. Rockefeller, and Andrew Carnegie – and today’s tech billionaires like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg. The core argument is that these contemporary titans wield immense economic and political power, much like their predecessors, and have significant influence over markets, governments, and even the media.

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Why We’re Polarized

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I have added a new book by Ezra Klein to my Library. The book titled “Why We’re Polarized” takes us on a fascinating journey to the past, helping us see that for all our problems, we have been a worse and uglier country at almost every other point in our history. Having said that, our current polarization has made it impossible to govern. I found his historical perspectives on the framing of our current political system very timely, and the notion that what works in one era fails in the next. The institutions, frameworks, and beliefs born in a vastly different era, struggle to keep pace in an era that looks very different.

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The Great Acceleration

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This research on the likely acceleration driven by the pandemic is a must read. Per their Website, Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas is a full-service, bipartisan government relations firm whose partners and principals have decades of political and policy experience. The presentation is U.S. centric and a little heavy on politics. However, it captures many of the issues that are converging across multiple domains (business, society, science, technology, environment, philosophy, economics, and geopolitics). I believe it captures one of the most impactful aspects of the current COVID-19 crisis: the acceleration of forces that were already in play. It is a quick walk through of the following topics:

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Rehearsing the Future

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Radio Show - 7-31-2019I had the pleasure of participating on a radio show titled Geeks, Geezers, and Googlization. Hosts Ira  Wolfe and Keith Campagna did a great job of facilitating our discussion about the future. Check out their Summary of our conversation, and/or listen to our conversation via this rebroadcast.

The Convergence of Science and Technology

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In looking at transformative periods throughout history, it is apparent that Convergence was a critical driver of change. While I am still hopeful of the ultimate convergence across societal, political, environmental, philosophic, economic, and business domains, it is clear that convergence is already occurring in the science and technology domains. This synergistic relationship where advances in one domain fuels rapid advances in the other is the force behind our rapid pace. As we saw in the Poll that looked at the catalysts that drive convergence, it is this rapid pace of innovation that many believe will ultimately drive it. This initial convergence is altering long-held Beliefs and Intuitions – eventually forcing convergence across the other domains.

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