It has been my desire to tell stories; to paint pictures of possible futures. Any story-teller would marvel at the amount of possible futures evolving from the current crisis. I have been a fan of the book the Fourth Turning because of the compelling journey through history that the book takes you on. Stories of crisis that emerged every 80 to 100 years like clockwork; and the reshaping of the social order that followed. It has been a little over 80 years since the last world altering crisis emerged. World War Two qualifies as an event that reshaped the social order when it was done.
Future Scenarios
More Thought Leaders Weigh In On A Post Pandemic Future
As I’ve said in an earlier post, predicting life after pandemics has been a fools errand. Futurist Amy Webb described it this way: “Any time a new change is foisted upon us, very quickly there is a bias to thinking that the new present is the future. That is almost universally never the case.” Many Futurists and other thought leaders are providing their thoughts on what this post-pandemic world might look like. In an article focused on The Unexpected Consequences of the Pandemic, author Bryan Walsh says that we know COVID-19 will fundamentally alter the world, but those changes may not be the ones you expect.
COVID-19: Both Accelerant And Obstacle
As we peer into the Looking Glass, we know that uncertainty is staring back. Our exponential world and all its building blocks and scenarios has created this looking glass phenomenon – something I explored in this Leadership Course back in 2017. COVID-19 underscores this uncertainty, serving as both an accelerant and an obstacle. A good example is explored in this Article on automation. 
Will the pandemic serve as an automation accelerant, as businesses replace laid off employees via automation? Or is it an obstacle to the capital investment required to enable automation?
Futurist Gerd Leonhard Looks Back From The Near Future
In a recent Post Gerd Leonhard explores the great transformation catalyzed by COVID-19. He uses this quote from Milton Friedman to focus on the need to think differently.
“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around. That, I believe, is our basic function: to develop alternatives to existing policies, to keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable”
Assessing A Post Pandemic Future: A Video
What might a post-pandemic society look like? In a Recent Post, I attempted to address that question by taking a journey backward to a similar time; exactly a century ago. What does a backward journey have to do with a post-pandemic society? The answer lies in a famous quote:
“The further backward you look, the further forward you can see” Winston Churchill
My colleagues (Kevin Mulcahy, Rose Rodriguez, and April Harris) created a video that captures the Blog Content: A journey to the past, and then a look ahead. You can find other videos that focus on a reimagined future on this YouTube Channel.
Coronavirus: Permanent Change? 34 Big Thinkers Explore the Possibilities
While the immediate focus of our global health crisis remains on the present, as we approach the other side, many will focus on a post-pandemic future. Painting pictures of possible futures was already critical in this time of rapid change; the pandemic elevates the urgency. I have been sharing the perspectives of many global thinkers in the interest of providing foresight to those who will need it when the focus shifts. A virtual session focused on a post-pandemic society is being planned, and I will likely participate. In discussing that possibility, I was presented with this Article.
Discussing A Post-Pandemic Society on Salem Radio Network
I was honored to appear on a segment of the Don Proft radio show earlier this morning. The show is a part of the Salem Radio Network. The topic was what America will look like post-pandemic. My piece of the segment begins around the 5:25 mark. As always, all views expressed are my own.
The COVID-19 Economic Impact On China and a Glimpse Of The Future
COVID-19 has had a dramatic impact on China’s economy. Jenna Ross at Visual Capitalist describes how the effects on their economy could foreshadow what the rest of the world can expect. While China turns the corner on the health side of the story, the economic side is telling its story. This Article via the World Economic Forum uses visualization to tell this economic story. Countries in the early stages of the outbreak should take notice. Continue reading
Anatomy Of An Outbreak
The Advisory Board Company released some great information about the current pandemic. This Webinar provides a great deal of statistics and content in the area of strategies and impact. The content from the webinar is also available via PDF. They address the top questions Here on their website. In a Must Read section, they provide additional information.
This is some of the most comprehensive content I have found to date on COVID-19. I highly recommend it.
COVID-19 Monday Morning News
The COVID-19 crisis is fast-moving with information bombarding us in real-time. On this Monday morning, as we awake to more isolation and rising numbers, there is much to consider. In this Article, the author focuses on three economic scenarios: Easter: an optimistic scenario (25% likely) where isolation leads to a slow return to normal by late April; Summer: the main scenario (55%) where improvements begin in mid-summer; and Winter: the pessimistic scenario (20%) where impact lasts into the winter. Given the expansion of isolation through April in the U.S., the optimistic scenario is all but eliminated from consideration.
Discussion On The Mid-Pandemic Impact on Supply Chains
TCS Colleague Kevin Benedict recently interviewed expert Joe Carson, CEO of Spend Strategies LLC, (former Chief Procurement Officer of both Micron Technologies and Lucent) to further explore how the pandemic is impacting global supply chains and risk management strategies today and in the future. The interview can be found Here. I wanted to make my Blog audience aware of this insightful conversation. They explore the following questions:
The Emerging Future of Education
I had the pleasure of discussing the future of education recently with Nick Burnett, Co-Founder of LearnTech Lab. Their mission is focused on a topic that I find critical to the future of society. From their website:
OUR MISSION IS TO CONNECT THE IDEAS, PEOPLE AND BUSINESSES WITH THE SCHOOLS WHO ARE REIMAGINING THE FUTURE OF EDUCATION.
They describe the challenge this way: education is entering a period of exponential change where there is a great need for learners, teachers and leaders to learn, unlearn and relearn faster than ever before. Traditional approaches to learning and teaching are no longer sufficient in the new era. Technology and Learning combined stand to have the boldest impact on deepening and accelerating learning, teaching and leading in schools. We invite you to come and join us on the journey.
Here is a video of our discussion.
How Will COVID-19 Impact Globalization?
UPDATED 3:00 March 19th: one of my Blog readers pointed me to this article titled Whatever the virus kills, it won’t be globalism. Since I am a big believer that Predictions are a fools errand, this walk through the bold post-pandemic predictions of our past is instructive. This point of view says that sounding the alarm on the death of globalization may be a bit premature.
There are many questions that require answers as we look towards a new normal post the current pandemic. One such question centers on supply chains and the globalization phenomenon of the past three decades. Multiple forces were already threatening the globalist agenda. From the rise of populism and associated tariff wars, to the advancement of automation and other innovations, the move towards localization seems inevitable.
What Skills Do You Need To Outsmart Robots?
What job skills do we need for the future? A popular question that comes up a lot. In a Recent Post, I listed several: emotional intelligence, creativity, flexibility, adaptability, data literacy, and technology savviness. This Tweet of a World Economic Forum video adds complex problem solving, critical thinking, people management, working with others, and decision making to the list.
Connecting our Brain to the Internet
In a world of knowledge abundance, there are so many things to consider. Knowledge has always been the engine that drives human development – and it has been throughout history. Knowledge expanded in the hunter-gatherer days with the invention of fire. In those days, a human obtained all its food by foraging. Although the source of food did not change, fire allowed humans to cook food and consume more calories. The human brain expanded with this caloric increase, and soon we invented language – the first in a series of innovations that drove the growth of knowledge. All that followed – from agriculture to the great inventions of the second industrial revolution – enabled us to advance as humans. I explored that progression Here.
Is Artificial Intelligence Dangerous?
A recent Article written by Futurist Bernard Marr describes a conversation with Oxford University Professor Nick Bostrom, New York Times best-selling author of Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies. Although the books focus was on those things that could go wrong, this recent conversation with Bostrom acknowledged the enormous upside to artificial intelligence. You can see the full video of their conversation below.
Some of the AI impacts explored in the video are:
- AI will change the workplace and the jobs that humans do
- AI-enabled terrorism
- AI surveillance
- Social manipulation and AI bias
- Deepfakes
- Political, legal, and social ramifications
Bostrom advises that rather than avoid pursuing AI innovation, we should put ourselves in the best position possible, with scalable AI control methods, ethics and governance. If we don’t, those significant negative ramifications he described in his earlier book could be realized. But as noted, there are so many positive outcomes to consider. This revolution represents as it always does a need to Manage the humanity enhancing and humanity diminishing pathways.
Eradicating Disease and Disability
There’s been a lot of talk lately about the impact of Artificial Intelligence on Healthcare. An aging population is likely to place even more stress on a costly and ineffective healthcare system. There are other new innovations that are likely to improve healthcare efficiency and offer new ways to address global healthcare challenges. One such innovation is described in this Recent Article authored by science editor Jackson Ryan.
Longevity Escape Velocity
Google’s head of engineering, innovator and futurist Ray Kurzweil often discusses the concept of longevity escape velocity; or the point at which science can extend your life for more than a year for every year that you are alive. Kurzweil believes we are much closer than you might think. In fact, he believes we are just another 10 to 12 years away from the point that the general public will hit this longevity escape velocity.
Nine Future Innovations That Will Change Urban Travel
Futuristic technologies and a new understanding of how our output impacts the world around us will change the face of transportation as we know it. New innovations hope to solve some of the biggest issues impacting transportation today by curbing pollution, reducing fatalities, and cutting down travel time.
Visionaries like Elon Musk are betting billions on big ideas that seem far fetched, but could become mainstream in the next few years. Hyperloop transportation tubes could be operating passenger services as early as 2021. These tubes would run at speeds of 600 mph or more and transport groups of passengers through pressurized tracks. Eventually, hyperloop hopes to tackle freight shipping too.
The Impact of Capital on Exponential Progression
In a post back in 2018, I described a phenomenon that contributes to the rapid Acceleration of innovation and scientific breakthroughs. Peter Diamandis coined the term Techno-Philanthropists and compared and contrasted them to the Robber Barons of a different era. Billionaires get a lot of negative press these days – but one thing is clear: their wealth is both accelerating the pace of innovation and addressing some of the world’s greatest challenges. Stories described by Articles like this one highlight the point.
Reimagining the Future 