The Fourth Turning

A Post Pandemic Society

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Updated December 16, 2025: Five Years Later

I am resurfacing this post because it captures a moment when convergence became impossible to ignore. Long before the pandemic, my work focused on how multiple domains — science, technology, society, economics, geopolitics, philosophy, and environment — were beginning to move together, creating conditions where change felt faster, more uneven, and harder to predict. COVID-19 did not initiate that convergence, but it revealed it in compressed form. The systemic change series builds on this longer arc of thinking, extending beyond the pandemic to examine how these forces continue to interact and reinforce one another today. This post remains relevant not as a historical artifact, but as an early, real-time glimpse into dynamics that are still unfolding.

Continue reading →

A World Of Expanding Possibilities – And Accelerating Pressure

Frank Diana Future Scenarios , , , , , , , , , , , ,

The world feels unfamiliar – more volatile, more complex, and harder to navigate than at any point in recent memory. That sense is not misplaced. It reflects the reality of a system under strain.

Across seven domains – science, technology, society, geopolitics, economy, philosophy, and environment – more than 1,700 convergent forces have been identified and mapped between 2025 and 2030, with the list continuing to grow. These forces are directional, accelerating, and deeply entangled. Together, they are expanding the possibility space – the set of plausible futures – faster than most institutions can observe, let alone act.

Continue reading →

What If Everything We Know Is Holding Us Back?

Frank Diana Future Scenarios , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In a time of unprecedented change, our society finds itself at the crossroads of transition. If we accept that we are in the Crisis phase of what historians William Strauss and Neil Howe term The Fourth Turning – a cyclical theory suggesting that societies repeatedly cycle through periods of stability and upheaval – we must confront a crucial question: Are we choosing to proactively unlearn outdated models, or will we be forced to do so reactively in the wake of crisis?

Continue reading →

The Fourth Turning: A Prophetic Lens On Our Turbulent Times

Frank Diana Demographics, Societal Factors , , , , , ,

UPDATED FEBRUARY 5TH 2025. The Fourth Turning and its sequel have resonated deeply with readers because they offer a framework for understanding the cyclical nature of history, particularly during times of uncertainty. The books propose that history unfolds in repeating patterns, each marked by distinct generational archetypes and societal moods. According to the authors’ model, we entered a “Crisis” period around 2008, marked by economic turmoil and a growing sense of societal unease. Now, over a decade later, many feel that we are approaching a critical juncture, the resolution of this Crisis, though the precise nature of that resolution remains unclear. This sense of approaching a culmination, combined with the current climate of rapid technological change, political polarization, and global instability, makes the framework offered by The Fourth Turning particularly compelling.

Continue reading →

Learning From The Past: Unlearning For The Future

Frank Diana History , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

In an era of rapid change, the traditional understanding of literacy has become increasingly insufficient. Historically, literacy was defined simply as the ability to read and write – fundamental skills that enabled individuals to participate in society. However, as Alvin Toffler wisely pointed out, the definition of literacy in the 21st century has expanded far beyond these basic abilities. Today, true literacy encompasses the capacity to continuously learn new skills, let go of outdated knowledge, and acquire fresh perspectives. This shift reflects the profound changes in our world, where scientific and technological advancements, societal shifts, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty are constantly reshaping the demands placed on individuals.

Continue reading →

A Journey Through The Looking Glass

Frank Diana My Book , , , ,

UPDATE: Given current world events, I feel compelled to share this broad story again.

In the last ten years, as my focus expanded, a story about the future emerged. If I were to write a book to capture that story, I would call it A Journey through the Looking Glass (like the name of the leadership course I developed in 2017). My presentations are the vehicle for this type of storytelling, while my Blog captures the story in pieces. Now, as we find ourselves in the early stages of a transformative decade, I feel compelled to pull the pieces together through the written word as well. My next several posts will be dedicated to telling this story. Here are the other posts in the series to date:

Continue reading →

The Fourth Turning Is Here

Frank Diana Books , , , , , , ,

Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this last year, the number of visits to this post and the original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.

I first read the book The Fourth Turning in 2019. I was struck by compelling evidence that describes the cycles of history, each lasting the length of human life. The cycle is made up of four turnings, each 20-25 years in duration. First comes a High, a period of confident expansion as a new order takes root after the old has been swept away. Next comes an Awakening, a time of spiritual exploration and rebellion against the now-established order. Then comes an Unraveling, an increasingly troubled era in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions. Last comes a Crisis—the Fourth Turning – when society passes through a great and perilous gate in history. Together, the four turnings comprise history’s seasonal rhythm of growth, maturation, entropy, and rebirth.

Continue reading →

The Final Stages Of The Fourth Turning

Frank Diana Books, Our Emerging Future , ,

Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this in 2022, surviving author Neil Howe launched a follow up book last year titled The fourth Turning is Here. The number of visits to this original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.

It was 2019 when I finished a book titled The Fourth Turning. I found myself referring to it a couple of weeks ago during a conversation about the cycles of history. I went back to the book after our discussion given the many changes the world experienced since I added it to my library. The repeated cycles of history described by the book remain both fascinating and ominous.

Continue reading →

What History Tells Us About Deglobalization

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Pandemics , , , , , , , , , ,

In looking at a Post Pandemic Society, I took a Journey to the 1920s and 1930s to understand what history might tell us about our emerging future. I have been amazed at the eerie similarities between our present day and that period a century ago (see visual below). If anyone is interested in exploring the cycles of history, I highly recommend the book The Fourth Turning. In the meantime, this recent Article explores a similar comparison to that time in history with a focus on deglobalization. Per the article:

“The post-pandemic world economy seems likely to be a far less globalized economy, with political leaders and the public rejecting openness in a manner unlike anything seen since the tariff wars and competitive devaluations of the 1930s.”

Continue reading →

Possible Futures Emerging Across Multiple Domains

Frank Diana Future Scenarios, Pandemics , , , , , , , , , , , ,

It has been my desire to tell stories; to paint pictures of possible futures. Any story-teller would marvel at the amount of possible futures evolving from the current crisis. I have been a fan of the book the Fourth Turning because of the compelling journey through history that the book takes you on. Stories of crisis that emerged every 80 to 100 years like clockwork; and the reshaping of the social order that followed. It has been a little over 80 years since the last world altering crisis emerged. World War Two qualifies as an event that reshaped the social order when it was done.

Continue reading →

The Fourth Turning

Frank Diana Humanity, Our Emerging Future , , ,

Update July 19, 2024: since I posted this in 2019, surviving author Neil Howe launched a follow up book last year titled The fourth Turning is Here. The number of visits to this original post has ramped considerably, signaling a resonance with the books message. As a result, I recently posted additional thoughts on the topic here.

The Fourth Turning

I just finished a book titled The Fourth Turning. I wasn’t sure I wanted to invest the cycles, but given my year-long focus on the past, I thought I’d give it a go – and I’m glad I did. In my continued efforts to reimagine the future, books such as this provide a richness of historical perspective. Although history was a key aspect of the book, I was more intrigued by the focus on generations, archetypes, and the cycles of our history (which last the length of a long human life). What intrigued me as a Futurist is the claim by the books authors that our past can indeed predict our future – it’s a compelling argument when viewed through the lens of these historical cycles.

 

So add another book to my Book Library. It was written in 1997 and accurately predicted some of the events that occurred in what the book refers to as a period of unraveling. If the cycle which has repeated itself six times was to do so again, we would have entered a crisis period somewhere prior to 2010 (great recession anyone). The crisis period would last one generation – moving towards a resolution that dramatically alters the social order by the late 2020s. Here is how the cycle is described by the book abstract.

Continue reading →