In a recent post, The Year the Playground Went Quiet, I explored the deeper story behind declining fertility rates—beyond statistics and headlines. It’s not just about fewer children; it’s about the future of communities, economies, and what we value as a society.
Today, I’m sharing a short video that brings those messages to life. It captures the emotional and systemic dimensions of this global shift—why it matters, what’s driving it, and what it means for all of us. Watch and reflect on how the choices we make now may shape generations to come.
This blog series is more than a collection of observations. It’s a way of seeing. A way of holding space for the deep human shifts unfolding around us—and telling the stories that make those shifts real. From cognitive decline to fertility collapse, from extended lifespans to rising caregiving demands, each post in this series centers a human truth: that the future does not arrive all at once. It emerges through patterns, decisions, tensions, and tradeoffs. It emerges through people. And it emerges unevenly.
What falling fertility rates are telling us – and where the silence leads
Across the globe, people are having fewer children – and having them later, if at all.
Fertility rates are falling in nearly every major economy, and not just slightly. In country after country, birth rates have slipped well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population. South Korea now sits below 0.8. Japan, Italy, Spain, and China all hover below 1.4. Even in the United States – long a statistical outlier – births have declined steadily for over a decade, hitting a 30-year low during the pandemic.
Throughout history, demographic trends have shifted in ways that defy prediction. One such phenomenon is the decline in fertility rates, which serves as a powerful reminder that the current state is not the future state. Today, discussions around declining fertility often frame it as a looming crisis, raising fears of aging populations and economic stagnation. Yet, history provides a compelling counter-narrative. The reversal of fertility decline in the mid-20th century, driven by the baby boom, highlights the impossibility of predicting how societal, economic, and geopolitical forces will interact to shape our future.
In a 2022 Post I described a societal signal that represents a global phenomenon. A decline in fertility rates has wide ranging implications, introducing an area of uncertainty that ripples across multiple scenarios. The societal piece of the convergence framework is massively impactful, with fertility being just one of multiple forces. A recent article decribes this global trend of declining fertility rates.
The data from the UN World Population Prospects (2022) compiled by Our World in Data shows a consistent decrease in birth rates across the six most populated countries. Notably, China has experienced the fastest decline, which could lead to similar challenges as seen in Japan with an aging population and significant socio-economic implications. This decline in fertility rates underscores the broader global pattern, where the average number of births per woman has decreased from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, with an expected further decline to 2.2 births by 2050. A visual from the article plots the trajectory.
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
Given the recent focus on demographics, I went back to review a book in my library titled “The Great Demographic Reversal.” In a post that reviewed the book, I mentioned that the authors state several times that their findings are controversial and counter to the views of mainstream economists. By way of review, the authors concluded that the future is one of:
My last two posts focused on labor shortages and population growth; two critical societal building blocks that converge in ways that shape our future. Continuing with that theme, this recent article looks at these building blocks through the lens of China.
China has edged over a demographic precipice: Its population has begun to shrink. United Nations data published on Monday showed that the long-anticipated tipping point came in the first half of the year; it’s a significant moment for a country whose large population helped transform it into a manufacturing powerhouse
Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently posted an article describing the Global Fertility Crisis. As we look at the forces likely to shape our future, we spend a lot of time and media cycles analyzing the exponential progression of science and technology. This powerful force is having a profound impact on society. But the opposite is also true: society is influencing the path of innovation. Societal Factors play as big a role in establishing the path of our emerging future. I placed societal factors in the middle of the visual I use to connect an overwhelming number of dots. The two curves that surround them are the science and technology foundation; and the future scenarios that it spawns. Societal tension happens in both directions; out towards the curves, and in from the curves.
but the sheer number of 
Reimagining the Future 