The Coming Wave

Permeating humanity’s oral traditions and ancient writings is the idea of a giant wave sweeping everything in its path, leaving the world remade and reborn.

Mustafa Suleyman – The Coming Wave

That quote from a book published this month is closely aligned with the compelling argument made by the authors of The Fourth Turning. While the latter book describes rebirth in the context of generational turns, this one views it through the lens of AI and Synthetic Biology. The Coming Wave comes to us from Mustafa Suleyman, the Co-Founder of DeepMind. The author defines a wave as a set of technologies coming together around the same time, powered by one or several new general-purpose technologies with profound societal implications. Thinking back, one major study found that twenty-four general-purpose technologies have emerged over the entire span of human history. Artificial intelligence and synthetic biology are likely to add to that number. The question I have asked in a poll is this: will they be more profound in their impact then previous technologies? Consider that fire, language, writing, electricity, the printing press, the steam engine, the Internet, the domestication of plants and animals, and the wheel, are all on the list. To even be considered among that list speaks volumes. But to be thinking in terms of most profound?

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Why Ecosystems? Why Now?

For at least seven years, the concept of ecosystems has been discussed and defined in various ways, while sometimes applied in a context that dilutes its eventual impact. At the highest level, an ecosystem is a network of connected stakeholders interacting in ways that create and capture value for all participants. Why has this ecosystem phenomenon emerged now and why do people expect it to drive structural change? Once again, history may provide an answer.

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The Road To Artificial General Intelligence

The tremendous advancements in artificial intelligence remain focused in narrow applications. As described in a recent article authored by Ben Dickson, these narrow systems have been designed to perform specific tasks instead of having general problem-solving abilities. The quest for general problem-solving ability has long been pursued, with many focused-on replicating aspects of human intelligence like vision, language, reasoning, and motor skills. Now, a new paper submitted to the peer-reviewed Artificial Intelligence journal describes an argument put forward by scientists at U.K.-based AI lab DeepMind. They argue that intelligence and its associated abilities likely emerge by rewarding maximization versus formulating and solving complicated problems.

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