The Pandemic Is Impacting Multiple Domains

As we have seen over the last several months. COVID-19 is impacting multiple domains. I had explored the Possible Implications across these domains in a post earlier this year. The visual below reflects some of that work (click to enlarge). Now months later, we see indications of potential paths or responses.

Three signals appeared in the news recently. First, Universal Basic Income (UBI) is back in the news. Germany is now running a trial focused on 120 Germans that will receive $1,400 per month. The three-year study will explore how UBI affects the economy and recipients’ well-being. The study, conducted by the German Institute for Economic Research, has been funded by 140,000 private donations. This could be an early indicator of a move towards Institution 2.0. It was clear prior to the pandemic that the institutions that form the foundation of society are antiquated and not fit for the current world. The pandemic made this all the more visible.

The second signal is an indication that Rents are Falling. One implication of the pandemic is the reversing of the mass urbanization projected for the future. What if a fear of dense places drives this reversal? We are already seeing a move out of cities. What does that move mean for rent in major cities? Average rents are down 7% in New York City and Los Angeles, and 3% in Boston Nationally, real estate firm CBRE predicts multifamily rents will fall by about 8% this year and not fully recover until 2022.

The third signal is a trend that was talked about, but may now accelerate as a result of the pandemic. Several factors were pointing towards a Disruption of the College Degree. Google recently made a huge announcement that could change the future of work and higher education: It’s launching a selection of professional courses that teach candidates how to perform in-demand jobs. Google’s new certificate program takes only six months to complete, and will be a fraction of the cost of college. According to the article, these courses, which the company is calling Google Career Certificates, teach foundational skills that can help job-seekers immediately find employment. However, instead of taking years to finish like a traditional university degree, these courses are designed to be completed in about six months.

All these signals help us see potential paths. The response side of this forward-looking exercise is critically important. A similar visual (below) focuses on the response side.