Rehearsing Possible Post COVID-19 Futures


In my post yesterday, I mentioned that post-pandemic perspectives are emerging for every domain. These signals help us evaluate  what world emerges after the crisis. I referenced using an implication and response framework to rehearse this emerging future. In looking at future scenarios, I have found this Rehearsing to be very instructive. When I speak of rehearsing, I am talking about understanding possible futures. Rehearsing allows us to analyze the implications of scenarios and their potential paths. The figure below demonstrates an exercise focused on assessing the implications of the autonomous vehicle scenario. Rehearsing allows us to look at the breadth and depth of a scenario – and in most cases, the implications are broader and deeper than we realize.

This breadth and depth makes our rehearsing difficult. As we understand the implications of a scenario, we then look for likely paths. Over time, obstacles and possible accelerators emerge. These obstacles and accelerators impact the path and timetable of a scenario, creating a dynamic of imminent realization or extended hype. Confusion follows, as leaders try to understand the impact. I’ll explore the response side in another post. Here is an early version of the implications of COVID-19 – a scenario with obvious breadth and depth of impact. This is a representative view, and therefore a living document. I will update and re-post on a regular basis.

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As I have in every virus-related post, I’m providing links to previous posts.

FEATUREDA Post Pandemic Society

Possible Futures Emerging Across Multiple Domains

More Thought Leaders Weigh In On A Post Pandemic Future

Mid-Pandemic Impact on Supply Chains
Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scenarios
Is The Canary Dead?
How Will The Corona Virus Impact Globalization?
The Corona Virus Serves As A Catalyst For Change
Post COVID-19 Economic Recovery Scenarios
COVID-19 Monday Morning News
Anatomy Of An Outbreak
Discussing A Post-Pandemic Society on Salem Radio Network
The COVID-19 Economic Impact On China and a Glimpse Of The Future
Assessing A Post Pandemic Future: A Video
Coronavirus: Permanent Change? 34 Big Thinkers Explore the Possibilities
Futurist Gerd Leonhard Looks Back From The Near Future

 

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