A popular question these days is: Will a robot take my job? That question is as popular as: what should my child study in school? At the heart of both questions is the fear that we as a society will automate anything that can be automated. This website may help bring some clarity – at least in the context of automation risk level. It’s very quick, simply enter your job and an automation risk level expressed as a percentage will be returned.
Ultimately, these questions are difficult to answer, as we cannot predict the jobs of the future – and required skill levels could be a moving target. The progression of automation can be viewed on a spectrum from augmenting humans to fully conscious machines. There are arguments being made on both ends of this spectrum – time will tell.
While I find that web site very informative, however, they fail to give a time frame for their predictions. Most studies of this type use 2030 or there about, because the further out you do the harder it gets to profess any kind of accuracy. Being an optimist I was pleased to see my job as one of the creators of automation, software developer, is safe for now, and should be through my retirement in the late 20’s. I do not have good news however for my younger colleagues for the software industry beyond 2030.
AI will be getting smart enough and the cost of developing software expensive enough by then that someone will tackle the problem of automating the software design and development process. Once AI is smart enough to read and understand a requirements document, were doomed too.
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Agree completely about where software development is heading. Regarding a timeline – economists do indeed look to post 2030 as a period of high uncertainty regarding jobs and the the actual definition of work
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