In his tenth post in the series, Marshall Kirkpatrick focuses on the intersection between artificial intelligence and autonomous vehicles. By way of reminder, Marshall launched a 30 day series that explores the intersection between AI and the various innovation components on my emerging futures visual.
As he has in each post, Marshall identifies the key subject matter experts that sit at the intersection of AI and the visual component in question. In the case of autonomous vehicles, the key influencers are: Jack Clark, Martin Ford, Lex Fridman and Duflos Bertrand. Here is the foresight and related future scenarios identified at the intersection of Artificial Intelligence and autonomous vehicles (taken straight from Marshall’s post):
Goodbye traffic lights: Traffic could be algorithmically optimized, with smart contracts at intersections negotiating for right-away like real-time ad exchanges bid for ad inventory on websites depending on the visitor. Priority at intersections may be given to people with urgent medical conditions – or people willing to make larger micro-payments. And millions of lives will be saved. Note: another intersection with Blockchain
Clean killing: Autonomous vehicles could travel to a target, make a decision to use lethal force, and do so autonomously. Human rights organizations like Human Rights Watch are adamantly opposed, cynical veterans sometimes say they’d trust machines more than some of the people the military puts in charge.
Your autonomous vehicle’s so cheap, it probably has to… The rich could have their own private autonomous vehicles, which they control independently. The middle class may borrow vehicles for their personal transportation on demand. The poor may ride ad-sponsored autonomous vehicles in bulk, their destinations chosen for them.
The implications of the autonomous vehicle future scenario are wide and deep. The influencer that paints this picture the best is Chunka Mui. You can get some of his thoughts in this recent Interview. Autonomous vehicles are massively transformative, as Morgan Stanley sees the $10 Trillion mobility market in play. As they put it, the car is the world’s most underutilized asset, and it is the most disruptable business on earth. A very good analysis by Paul Godsmark of the compelling business case for autonomous vehicles can be found Here. I visited this scenario in depth as I analyzed the emerging Mobility Ecosystem and the growing case for multi-industry disruption.
The intersection analysis that Marshall pursues via his posts is a great example of deriving the foresight required to navigate in this emerging future. In the case of autonomous vehicles, there are an overwhelming number of intersections that make the path of the scenario impossible to predict. This visual reminds us that what lies ahead is overwhelming – making future thinking and the rehearsal of our emerging future a critical piece of our journey forward.The other posts in the series on AI and intersections can be found via the links below: