In a recent post, The Year the Playground Went Quiet, I explored the deeper story behind declining fertility rates—beyond statistics and headlines. It’s not just about fewer children; it’s about the future of communities, economies, and what we value as a society.
Today, I’m sharing a short video that brings those messages to life. It captures the emotional and systemic dimensions of this global shift—why it matters, what’s driving it, and what it means for all of us. Watch and reflect on how the choices we make now may shape generations to come.
What falling fertility rates are telling us – and where the silence leads
Across the globe, people are having fewer children – and having them later, if at all.
Fertility rates are falling in nearly every major economy, and not just slightly. In country after country, birth rates have slipped well below the 2.1 births per woman needed to maintain a stable population. South Korea now sits below 0.8. Japan, Italy, Spain, and China all hover below 1.4. Even in the United States – long a statistical outlier – births have declined steadily for over a decade, hitting a 30-year low during the pandemic.
Throughout history, demographic trends have shifted in ways that defy prediction. One such phenomenon is the decline in fertility rates, which serves as a powerful reminder that the current state is not the future state. Today, discussions around declining fertility often frame it as a looming crisis, raising fears of aging populations and economic stagnation. Yet, history provides a compelling counter-narrative. The reversal of fertility decline in the mid-20th century, driven by the baby boom, highlights the impossibility of predicting how societal, economic, and geopolitical forces will interact to shape our future.
In a 2022 Post I described a societal signal that represents a global phenomenon. A decline in fertility rates has wide ranging implications, introducing an area of uncertainty that ripples across multiple scenarios. The societal piece of the convergence framework is massively impactful, with fertility being just one of multiple forces. A recent article decribes this global trend of declining fertility rates.
The data from the UN World Population Prospects (2022) compiled by Our World in Data shows a consistent decrease in birth rates across the six most populated countries. Notably, China has experienced the fastest decline, which could lead to similar challenges as seen in Japan with an aging population and significant socio-economic implications. This decline in fertility rates underscores the broader global pattern, where the average number of births per woman has decreased from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, with an expected further decline to 2.2 births by 2050. A visual from the article plots the trajectory.
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
I had the pleasure of joining RegalixTV recently for a session focused on education. Host Dheeraj Prasad and I discussed the importance of education in transformative eras, how digital learning experiences are evolving, why there needs to be a shift in focus with respect to skill sets and a whole lot more on Knowledge-Centered Growth.
Tune in to watch the full Interview. I have focused a great deal on education recently. You got explore the topic via my earlier posts.
I’ve dedicated many of my last several posts to the topic of education. I recently joined a Future of Children event and participated in what they set up as a shark tank segment. The pitch was to focus on a the future of education. The message I delivered is captured in the infographic below. At the end of the post you will find links to my other recent education posts.
With a continued focus on the Future of Education and our need to Rethink it, I want to share a video from a great event that I had the privilege to participate in. The Children at Risk organization serves as a catalyst for change to improve the quality of life for children through strategic research, public policy analysis, education, collaboration, and advocacy. This event focused on education and learning.
Special thanks to Alexandra Whittington for inviting me to the event. As we gaze upon what is likely the most Disruptive decade in history, children and their future is something we should all rally behind. Enjoy the session.
Bloomberg BusinessWeek recently posted an article describing the Global Fertility Crisis. As we look at the forces likely to shape our future, we spend a lot of time and media cycles analyzing the exponential progression of science and technology. This powerful force is having a profound impact on society. But the opposite is also true: society is influencing the path of innovation. Societal Factors play as big a role in establishing the path of our emerging future. I placed societal factors in the middle of the visual I use to connect an overwhelming number of dots. The two curves that surround them are the science and technology foundation; and the future scenarios that it spawns. Societal tension happens in both directions; out towards the curves, and in from the curves.
Reimagining the Future 