In my recent post, Invisible at Rush Hour, I explored how aging populations are reshaping the rhythms of everyday life—often in ways we fail to see. From shifting commute patterns to the quiet rise of elder influence, the signs of demographic transformation are everywhere. This short video builds on that reflection, offering a visual lens into what it means when society moves faster than some of us can keep pace.
Demographics
The Fourth Turning: A Prophetic Lens On Our Turbulent Times
UPDATED FEBRUARY 5TH 2025. The Fourth Turning and its sequel have resonated deeply with readers because they offer a framework for understanding the cyclical nature of history, particularly during times of uncertainty. The books propose that history unfolds in repeating patterns, each marked by distinct generational archetypes and societal moods. According to the authors’ model, we entered a “Crisis” period around 2008, marked by economic turmoil and a growing sense of societal unease. Now, over a decade later, many feel that we are approaching a critical juncture, the resolution of this Crisis, though the precise nature of that resolution remains unclear. This sense of approaching a culmination, combined with the current climate of rapid technological change, political polarization, and global instability, makes the framework offered by The Fourth Turning particularly compelling.
Continue readingRehearsing The Future: Scenario Thinking And Longevity
For years, I’ve championed the power of scenario thinking as a way to “rehearse” the future. In my work, I’ve seen how structured, forward-looking narratives help us move beyond guesswork or simple extrapolation, allowing us to imagine multiple possibilities and develop more resilient strategies. This approach is particularly vital when it comes to the challenges of longevity and the strain on social safety nets like Social Security – areas where demographic shifts, policy decisions, and economic factors converge in ways that few people anticipate. By rehearsing tomorrow’s potential realities today, we equip ourselves with the foresight to adapt, innovate, and thrive no matter which scenario becomes our new normal.
Continue readingThe Future Is Not Determined: Lessons from Declining Fertility Rates
Throughout history, demographic trends have shifted in ways that defy prediction. One such phenomenon is the decline in fertility rates, which serves as a powerful reminder that the current state is not the future state. Today, discussions around declining fertility often frame it as a looming crisis, raising fears of aging populations and economic stagnation. Yet, history provides a compelling counter-narrative. The reversal of fertility decline in the mid-20th century, driven by the baby boom, highlights the impossibility of predicting how societal, economic, and geopolitical forces will interact to shape our future.
Continue readingThe Demographic Cliff: A Looming Crisis For Higher Education And The Economy
A recent article highlights a force I have written about often: The demographic shifts that will intensify over the latter half of this decade and into the 2030s. A brief summary of the article and issues follows.
The Looming Demographic Cliff and Its Ripple Effect on Higher Education and the Economy
A silent yet profound shift is taking place in the United States (and globally) one that will reshape higher education and have far-reaching economic consequences. The “demographic cliff,” a term used to describe the decline in the number of 18-year-olds available to enter college, has been looming since the Great Recession triggered a drop in birth rates. This decline is expected to manifest significantly by this fall, presenting an existential challenge to colleges and universities and broader implications for the nation’s economy.
Continue readingFalling Birth Rates
In a 2022 Post I described a societal signal that represents a global phenomenon. A decline in fertility rates has wide ranging implications, introducing an area of uncertainty that ripples across multiple scenarios. The societal piece of the convergence framework is massively impactful, with fertility being just one of multiple forces. A recent article decribes this global trend of declining fertility rates.
The data from the UN World Population Prospects (2022) compiled by Our World in Data shows a consistent decrease in birth rates across the six most populated countries. Notably, China has experienced the fastest decline, which could lead to similar challenges as seen in Japan with an aging population and significant socio-economic implications. This decline in fertility rates underscores the broader global pattern, where the average number of births per woman has decreased from 3.2 in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, with an expected further decline to 2.2 births by 2050. A visual from the article plots the trajectory.
The Sandwich Generation
A recent article describes a societal challenge that represents a major convergent force. I have portrayed this challenge as a shift in our traditional life segments – from four to five. Here is a summary of the article:
As we approach 2030, the world braces for a significant demographic shift. In the United State alone, 10,000 Americans will hit the age of 65 every day. This surge in the elderly population underscores a pressing global concern regarding our readiness to provide adequate elder care, a responsibility often shouldered by the adult children of aging parents. This phenomenon has coined the term “sandwich generation,” referring to individuals who find themselves simultaneously caring for elderly parents and raising their own children.
Continue readingThe Great Wealth Transfer: Fact Or Fiction?
In a post from 2019, I described what some were calling the greatest wealth transfer in history. I pointed to an Article that positioned the next two decades in the United States as an unprecedented shift of demographics and finances. Baby Boomers were born between 1944 and 1964, and according to that article, this generation is expected to transfer $30 trillion in wealth to younger generations over the next many years: what some have called the “great wealth transfer.”
Continue readingSocietal Signals Are Flashing
This latest article via the World Economic forum highlights a fundamental truth about the current era: signals are flashing across multiple domains. Although much attention is paid to advancements in science and technology, signals across society, geopolitics, economy and environment are converging. As described in various posts on the topic, convergence itself is a signal. In similar periods in the past, when multiple domains were in a state of flux, it was their convergence that shaped the future. In the referenced article, it is a societal signal that is flashing. If we view these signals as building blocks, it is the model that emerges that allows us to explore their combinations.
Continue readingThe World’s Aging Population
Most countries around the world have experienced population explosions, or are about to. Combine this with declining birth rates and falling mortality rates, and it’s clear that the global senior population will continue to reach new heights.
Pablo Alvarez – Charted: The World’s Aging Population from 1950 to 2100
That quote from a recent article underscores a series of demographic shifts that play a major role in shaping the future. While science and technology rightfully receive a lot of attention, these societal shifts are just as impactful. That message is resonating, as my recent post on population growth is now my most read post since I started blogging thirteen years ago.
Continue readingWhere Is Population Growth Actually Heading?
Demographics matter. An aging society, fewer children, less workers, immigration, to name a few, are likely to shape our future in ways we cannot predict. There is much uncertainty, exemplified by mixed messages regarding the global population. Some estimates have us reaching 11 billion people by the year 2100 – with most of that growth coming from Africa and some countries in Asia. Studies have now emerged with significantly less growth. A recent article describes one such study.
Continue readingAmerica’s Demographics
Demographics are a big piece of forward-looking analysis – and we are living in times of significant demographic shifts. An aging society, a fall in working age population, a drop in fertility rates, and a diversifying population are just a handful of examples. This recent article provides a great interactive visual via Visual Capitalist that captures one hundred years of demographic change in America.
Continue readingA Future Shaped By Generational Differences
Continue readingOverall, in 2021, Gen X (anyone born from 1965 to 1980) spent the most money of any U.S. generation, with an average annual expenditure of $83,357
Preethi Lodha – How Americans Spend Their Money, By Generation
The Changing Human Life Cycle
Given the recent focus on demographics, I went back to review a book in my library titled “The Great Demographic Reversal.” In a post that reviewed the book, I mentioned that the authors state several times that their findings are controversial and counter to the views of mainstream economists. By way of review, the authors concluded that the future is one of:
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Reimagining the Future 