Google’s head of engineering, innovator and futurist Ray Kurzweil often discusses the concept of longevity escape velocity; or the point at which science can extend your life for more than a year for every year that you are alive. Kurzweil believes we are much closer than you might think. In fact, he believes we are just another 10 to 12 years away from the point that the general public will hit this longevity escape velocity.
Author: Frank Diana
Holograms: Coming to a Concert Near You
As the dialog about massive change this decade amplifies, questions about societal implications come into focus. Of specific interest is the way society is likely to react to some of this change. In a recent Poll, I asked if people would be interested in interacting virtually with a lost loved one. Forty-seven percent of the respondents said no. These simple questions give us visibility to how we are likely to embrace or reject aspects of change in this decade.
Here is another question to consider – but first, take a look at this video:
Now the question – please take the quick poll.
Immigration, Innovation and the Coming Migrations
I recently added a new book to my Book Library. Authors Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler explore the acceleration of technology and the Upheaval we are likely to experience in the coming decade. Diamandis and Kotler investigate how exponentially accelerating technologies converge and impact both our lives and society as a whole. They ask key questions like: how will these convergences transform today’s legacy industries? What will happen to the way we raise our kids, govern our nations, and care for our planet?
The Mega-Trends that Shape the 21st Century
In a recent Article by Bryan Walsh, he describes the mega-trends that are likely to shape this century. These trends are driven by the Acceleration of innovation and a growing set of Societal Factors. In describing the seriousness of these trends, our author points to a forthcoming book titled “The Precipice”. In the book, author Toby Ord of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute gives one in six odds that humanity will suffer an existential catastrophe during the next 100 years — almost certainly due to our own actions.
In the book The Fourth Turning, authors William Strauss and Neil Howe illuminate the past, explain the present, and reimagine the future. They offer an utterly persuasive prophecy about how America’s past will predict its future. Here is what they had to say:
Nine Future Innovations That Will Change Urban Travel
Futuristic technologies and a new understanding of how our output impacts the world around us will change the face of transportation as we know it. New innovations hope to solve some of the biggest issues impacting transportation today by curbing pollution, reducing fatalities, and cutting down travel time.
Visionaries like Elon Musk are betting billions on big ideas that seem far fetched, but could become mainstream in the next few years. Hyperloop transportation tubes could be operating passenger services as early as 2021. These tubes would run at speeds of 600 mph or more and transport groups of passengers through pressurized tracks. Eventually, hyperloop hopes to tackle freight shipping too.
A Dear John Letter to HR
Nahal Yousefian is a Chief Human Resources Officer. She reached out recently to discuss her passion for disrupting the Human Resources function. She has moved from conforming in the system to learning about and experimenting with more effective models of organizational design, capability, and ultimately psychology. She pointed out that many systems and structures were designed precisely to reinforce a centralized, command and control flow of work versus an agile and responsive model. She has reframed her personal purpose at work and strives to create the world of work anew.
I will let her tell you the rest of the story in this brilliant Dear John letter that she wrote to HR. Every function, every institution, every mental model could benefit from a similar letter. It is my continued hope that more people like Nahal make it their personal purpose to think differently about these fossils from our past. Enjoy her letter.
Oregon futurist Predicts More change in next 10 years than the last 40
In a recent Post I said that this decade is likely to be remembered as the launching pad to a very different future. Seems Oregon Futurist Steve Brown agrees with me. Mr. Brown sees a whole lot of change by 2030. And he makes a bold prediction: “My expectation is that we’re going to see more change in the workplace and more change in our lives in the next ten years than in the last forty. It’s a bold statement to make, but I think it’s accurate,” said Brown. This recent Article describes each of the areas that he believes drives this change. Here is a summary:
The Impact of Capital on Exponential Progression
In a post back in 2018, I described a phenomenon that contributes to the rapid Acceleration of innovation and scientific breakthroughs. Peter Diamandis coined the term Techno-Philanthropists and compared and contrasted them to the Robber Barons of a different era. Billionaires get a lot of negative press these days – but one thing is clear: their wealth is both accelerating the pace of innovation and addressing some of the world’s greatest challenges. Stories described by Articles like this one highlight the point.
The Acceleration of Acceleration
In his recent Book Peter Diamandis describes why the future is faster than you think. At the heart of this phenomenon is the Acceleration of acceleration. The Convergence of multiple forces is driving this very fast future. As these Intersections occur, that pathway to a very different future opens wide. In the case of acceleration, Mr. Diamandis identifies seven forces that in effect accelerate the current acceleration dynamic. These are:
The Changing World of Human Resources
A recent Article explores those things keeping most Chief Human Resources officers (CHROs) up at night. According to Gartner, CHROs believe three topics are impacting the future of work: AI and automation, the gig economy and an aging yet multi-generational workforce. However, Gartner also believes that they are missing some key trends. They identified these six trends as areas for chief human resources officers to consider:
- Unethical Use of Employee Data
- Falling Barriers to Access
- Automation of the Manager Role
- Elimination of On-the-Job Learning
- Radical Transparency
- Rising Demand for Remote Work
Like every corporate function, human resources will face its share of change in the coming years. According to Gartner research, only 9% think their organisation is prepared for the future of work. Explore each trend in the article referenced above.
Food: A great Example of the Broad Changes Coming
In this recent Article, the authors describe the future of food in a way that captures the massive change driven by one future scenario: in this case, Food 2.0. Setting aside the changes likely in the form of lab-grown meats and 3D Printed foods, this story is more fundamental: it’s about farming. The article describes the current state of the industry, mostly one in decline.
Can you Reunite with a Lost Loved One?
In a recent book titled A World without Work, author Daniel Susskind described two fields of computing: computational creativity and affective computing. According to wikipedia, computational creativity is a multidisciplinary endeavour that is located at the intersection of the fields of artificial intelligence, cognitive psychology, philosophy, and the arts. The goal of computational creativity is to model, simulate or replicate creativity using a computer. This field of computing explores whether Creativity is the Sole Domain of Humans.
A World Without Work
I Just finished another great book. This one is titled A World Without Work authored by Economist Daniel Susskind. 
The author explores a phenomenon that we have discussed many times over the centuries: Technological Unemployment. Drawing on almost a decade of research in the field, Susskind argues that machines no longer need to think like us in order to outperform us, as was once widely believed. The book describes a world where more and more tasks that used to be far beyond the capability of computers – from diagnosing illnesses to drafting legal contracts, from writing news reports to composing music – are coming within their reach. Mr. Susskind tells a compelling story to support his conclusion: the threat of technological unemployment is now real.
The Future of Cars
Recently, someone shared a very interesting inforgraphic on the future of cars. I get these requests to share content on a regular basis, and I assess them based on their insight and potential value to my readers. This is an example of a very well done Infographic with a great deal of insight. Below is an introduction and the infographic. Enjoy!
Electric Batteries and the Grid
This Article provides a very good example of domains that are converging in ways that shape our future. In this example, innovations in science and technology converge with future scenarios involving the emerging Mobility Ecosystem and one that is often described as the emerging Energy Internet. Author Jeff McMahon indicates that there will be more than enough batteries in electric vehicles by 2050 to support a grid that runs on solar and wind—if the two are connected by smart chargers, according to experts at the International Renewable Energy Agency.
As described in an earlier post, these Intersections across multiple domains introduce new scenarios that amplify impact. In this example, the boundaries between mobility and energy blur, creating a synergistic linkage between the two ecosystems. This complex and unpredictable dynamic complicates our Future Thinking exercise – but it may be the most critical focus of any forward-looking effort. The above referenced article provides a good example of how the Convergence of science and technology leads to a convergence with multiple future scenarios. Visualization helps to understand the various dots that are connecting.
The Future is Faster than you Think
In a recent Interview, Peter Diamandis talks about the rapid pace of innovation and how it is about to get a lot quicker. Diamandis has always had a positive outlook on the path of innovation – and although I share his optimism, there is no disputing societies need to map that Path. His ability to explore possible futures is very instructive, as leaders everywhere must understand the potential to advance our human development.
Mr. Diamandis believes we will see more change in the coming decade than we have in the last 100 years. He speaks of the Convergence of building blocks in the science and technology domains which contribute to the quickening pace. I’ve explored this notion of intersections in the past, but with a broadened focus. Convergence is occurring across multiple domains, not just science and technology. That additional convergence across society, economy, geopolitics, environment, philosophy, and business introduces a set of additional accelerants – but they also create obstacles.
In looking at possible futures, here are some of his predictions:
Computing on the Edge
Multiple changes to our compute paradigm are required to realize the disruptive and humanitarian advances promised by rapid innovation; whether it is the continued advancement of Moore’s law through new methods, or a complete replacement of the compute platform (e.g. Quantum Computing). One of those near-term changes is set to hit wireless networking, and 2020 could be the turning point. As described in this Article, A trio of new technologies is set to redefine wireless networking. That, in turn, could change the way enterprises think about building applications, managing data, distributing computing resources and deploying robots and factory floor machinery.
Yuval Harari Paints Pictures of Possible Futures
In his book titled Homo Deus, Yuval Harari provides a look into possible futures; he echoed those themes as he addressed the attendees of this years annual meeting of the World Economic Forum. I encourage everyone to read his Address, as it touches on the three existential threats that he believes humanity faces: nuclear war, ecological collapse, and technological disruption. Given the attention paid to the first two, Mr. Harari focused his address on technological disruption.
Wednesday Musings: Education, Energy, Currency, and Purpose
Every morning, I scan the horizon. Horizon Scanning is a systematic process that serves as an early warning system to inform decision makers about possible futures. It identifies actions, innovations, and events that have the potential to alter our future, both positive and negative. I am struck by the sheer volume of news, areas to consider, and emerging building blocks that are likely to impact society. The Possibilities – both good and bad – seem endless.
Thinking about the Future should be a normal part of every leaders day. With so many building blocks to consider, the need to understand them intensifies, as well as the various ways they are connecting. A Canvas that helps us to visualize can be very helpful. My scanning this morning underscores just how much to consider. In a short period of time, I explored the World Economic Forum’s continued focus on Purpose. Having just written about How Different Jobs will be in the next ten years, I read another Article on the need for a Global Reskilling revolution. As the world explores a profound shift in our energy paradigm, I learned that the windows in our buildings will provide all the Energy Required. The foundational elements of society are shifting. Even money is likely to transform, as Central Banks study the possibilities of Digital Currencies.
So, scan away my friends, the horizon is approaching rapidly.
5G is Likely to Accelerate Innovation in the 2020s
As a foundational piece of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, 5G is likely to drive the human development that many anticipate. Viewing 5G through the lens of convergence provides an organizing principle that allows us to leverage insight across domains and derive foresight as a result. 5G, the next generation of cellular mobile communications technology, is the best example of convergence – as geopolitics is getting involved in emerging technology decisions and technology discussions are influencing geopolitics.
Reimagining the Future 