There are many conflicting views emerging on the timing of an economic new normal. Regardless of the source, all of it at some level is speculation. There is too much uncertainty to do prediction justice. That doesn’t mean that talented prognosticators can’t take a shot. This great Article from MIT Sloan Management Review is a must read. Author Alec Levenson argues that it will be a long time until an economic new normal. Some of his rationale is summarized below:
Economic Recovery
We Must Think Critically And Differently
It was late 2013 and I was thinking about the transformation that digital would eventually drive. In a Series of Posts on transformation, I laid out my early thinking about forcing functions and related enablers. One of those enablers was Thinking Differently. In this Article authored by Jeff Haden, he describes the viewpoints of best-selling author Simon Sinek:
“These are not unprecedented times. There are many cases — lists of cases — where change, or something unexpected, has put many companies out of business, and made other companies come out stronger and reinvent themselves. The invention of the Internet put many, many companies out of business. The ones who could not reinvent themselves for the Internet age but rather doubled down on the old way they did business.”
How Might The World Respond?
As I mentioned in yesterday’s Post, rehearsing the future has never been more important. In that post, I focused on the implications of COVID-19 across a broad set of categories. In a complex and uncertain world, to sense and respond is critical to managing towards constructive outcomes. In this case, to sense is to have a view of potential impact. Responding – in all its various forms – shapes the future. How might the world respond to a pandemic that threatens to reshape that world? This slideshow capture the full sense-and-respond exercise. As is the case with a See-Rehearse-Adapt philosophy, this exercise is never done. Here in this slideshow are the possible implications and potential responses. Let’s connect a few dots.
Rehearsing Possible Post COVID-19 Futures
In my post yesterday, I mentioned that post-pandemic perspectives are emerging for every domain. These signals help us evaluate what world emerges after the crisis. I referenced using an implication and response framework to rehearse this emerging future. In looking at future scenarios, I have found this Rehearsing to be very instructive. When I speak of rehearsing, I am talking about understanding possible futures. Rehearsing allows us to analyze the implications of scenarios and their potential paths. The figure below demonstrates an exercise focused on assessing the implications of the autonomous vehicle scenario. Rehearsing allows us to look at the breadth and depth of a scenario – and in most cases, the implications are broader and deeper than we realize.
Reimagining the Future 