Labor Shortage

The Demographic Cliff: A Looming Crisis For Higher Education And The Economy

Frank Diana Demographics, Societal Factors , , , , ,

A recent article highlights a force I have written about often: The demographic shifts that will intensify over the latter half of this decade and into the 2030s. A brief summary of the article and issues follows.

The Looming Demographic Cliff and Its Ripple Effect on Higher Education and the Economy

A silent yet profound shift is taking place in the United States (and globally) one that will reshape higher education and have far-reaching economic consequences. The “demographic cliff,” a term used to describe the decline in the number of 18-year-olds available to enter college, has been looming since the Great Recession triggered a drop in birth rates. This decline is expected to manifest significantly by this fall, presenting an existential challenge to colleges and universities and broader implications for the nation’s economy.

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The Looming Labor Shortage

Frank Diana Societal Factors , , , , , ,

In a post yesterday on population growth, I shared a fascinating visual that looked at the age structure of our population in 2017 versus projections for 2100. The tweet is shared again below, click on arrow in the visual to see the changes.

Population size is important in several ways. Historically, experts worried about societies ability to sustain an ever-growing population. With climate change issues mounting, those concerns remain. However, a scenario where our global populations shrink brings a different set of challenges. As this article on projected labor shortages describes, the growth rate of an economy is determined by two factors: growth in hours worked and growth in productivity. The sustained economic growth of the last 250 years can be attributed to a growing skilled workforce (education played a major role) and major innovations that drove productivity.

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