Yesterday, I launched a post titled The Fragile Future, exploring the uncertainty that lies ahead and the forces shaping our world. Today, I came across an article from the Atlantic Council titled Global Foresight 2025, which presents a range of possible futures through a survey of strategists and foresight practitioners. Their findings paint a stark picture of what 2035 might hold—a world teetering between worsening geopolitical conflict and cautious optimism about technology’s role in shaping our collective destiny.

The Weight of Uncertainty

One of the most alarming takeaways from the survey is the heightened expectation of a world war within the next decade. Forty percent of respondents believe we will see a multifront conflict among great powers by 2035, with 48 percent anticipating the use of nuclear weapons and 45 percent expecting warfare to extend into space. This isn’t just theoretical speculation; it reflects a growing recognition that our global systems of diplomacy and deterrence are weakening. The historical parallels are striking – competition among major powers, shifting alliances, and regional tensions have been the precursors to global conflicts before. Have we learned from history, or are we repeating the patterns that led to catastrophe in the past?

The Shifting Geopolitical Order

The report highlights that China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea may align into a formal bloc, creating a world increasingly divided into competing spheres of influence. Nearly half, 47 percent, of respondents believe that by 2035, the world will be structured around China-aligned and US-aligned blocs, a shift that would accelerate geopolitical tensions. Additionally, 65 percent expect China to attempt to retake Taiwan by force, a dramatic increase from previous years, and 45 percent predict direct conflict between Russia and NATO.

If these projections materialize, it would solidify a multipolar world without robust multilateral institutions to mediate conflicts. What does this mean for the global economy, governance models, and institutional stability? The survey suggests that confidence in organizations like the United Nations and the World Trade Organization is eroding, with 75 percent and 60 percent of respondents, respectively, expecting them to be less capable of solving major global challenges. The retreat from effective multilateralism could accelerate fragmentation and intensify instability.

The AI Dilemma: A Source of Hope?

Despite these troubling signals, there are glimmers of optimism. For the first time, the survey reflects an increase in confidence that artificial intelligence will have a net positive impact on global affairs over the next decade. Fifty-eight percent of respondents see AI as a force for good, up from previous surveys. This aligns with my ongoing exploration of AI as a general-purpose technology, following an evolutionary path similar to electricity—first solving narrow problems, then expanding into broader applications, and ultimately transforming entire systems.

Interestingly, roughly half of respondents also foresee an expansion of global cooperation on climate change, a rare bright spot in an otherwise pessimistic outlook. However, only 40 percent believe greenhouse gas emissions will have peaked and begun declining by 2035, underscoring the persistent uncertainty in climate action.

The Possibility Space Expands

What we see emerging from this report is an expanding possibility space – one filled with both disruptive threats and transformative opportunities. The fragile future I discussed yesterday is further validated by these findings. The convergence of forces shaping the next decade – geopolitical tensions, technological advancements, and institutional shifts – demands that we rethink how we prepare for the future. Organizations, leaders, and societies must embrace adaptability, resilience, and the capacity to thrive in an environment where the ground is constantly shifting beneath us.

What Comes Next?

The Atlantic Council’s findings reinforce the urgency of our time. We stand at a crossroads where the choices we make now will shape the trajectory of the coming decades. Will we reinforce cooperation, invest in institutions that can withstand the pressures of a multipolar world, and harness technology for collective benefit? Or will we succumb to division, short-term thinking, and the same patterns that have led to conflict throughout history?

The future remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: we must engage in rehearsing the future, actively anticipating multiple pathways, and preparing for the challenges ahead. The fragile future is not set in stone – it is ours to shape. This video captures some of the findings.