Throughout history, demographic trends have shifted in ways that defy prediction. One such phenomenon is the decline in fertility rates, which serves as a powerful reminder that the current state is not the future state. Today, discussions around declining fertility often frame it as a looming crisis, raising fears of aging populations and economic stagnation. Yet, history provides a compelling counter-narrative. The reversal of fertility decline in the mid-20th century, driven by the baby boom, highlights the impossibility of predicting how societal, economic, and geopolitical forces will interact to shape our future.
Continue readingBirth Rates
America’s Demographics
Demographics are a big piece of forward-looking analysis – and we are living in times of significant demographic shifts. An aging society, a fall in working age population, a drop in fertility rates, and a diversifying population are just a handful of examples. This recent article provides a great interactive visual via Visual Capitalist that captures one hundred years of demographic change in America.
Continue readingBirth Rates, Workers, and Volatility
I wrote about a recent analysis conducted by Bain & Company in an earlier post on the Turbulent 2020s and what it means for the 2030 and beyond. An interesting related exchange on Twitter focused on the impact of birth rates on the core issues of demographics, automation, and growth.
Reimagining the Future 