This latest article via the World Economic forum highlights a fundamental truth about the current era: signals are flashing across multiple domains. Although much attention is paid to advancements in science and technology, signals across society, geopolitics, economy and environment are converging. As described in various posts on the topic, convergence itself is a signal. In similar periods in the past, when multiple domains were in a state of flux, it was their convergence that shaped the future. In the referenced article, it is a societal signal that is flashing. If we view these signals as building blocks, it is the model that emerges that allows us to explore their combinations.

As the highlighted building blocks in this societal model indicate, these forces are converging. As they do, several other building blocks converge with them, for example, automation, immigration, and the economic burden of social programs. Technological advancements and increased investment in human capital are potential pathways when considering tactics to address these issues. Likewise, the countries examined by the authors of the article have benefited from various forms of migration over the last 10-15 years. As they indicate, migrants tend to be younger and have higher fertility rates and therefore likely to be net contributors to longer-term increases in the workforce. There will also likely be policy actions, that although resisted, will need to be considered – for example raising retirement ages.

Looking at the labor force participation rate across different demographic groups, it is notable that several countries currently have above-average participation in both the 15-19 and 65+ brackets. Traditionally, these age groups would not be working yet, or would have retired already.

World Economic Forum

The article reminds us that understanding the uncertainty, volatility, and complexity of our world requires not just signals, but an appreciation for the sheer number of building blocks that are likely to shape our world. If that’s not hard enough, signals are combining in complex ways.