Our history is an important source for understanding the present. A good view of the past also makes it possible to understand possible future developments. The current period is in many ways similar to the 1920s and 1930s, with signals flashing in geopolitical, technological, scientific, economic and social domains.

Those words are a warning and at the same time a call to action. Leaders, who themselves exert influence on large-scale changes to a certain extent, must keep an open eye for current events and recurring patterns evident in a study of history. I continue to believe it is impossible to say what the exact future will look like, but ongoing rehearsal better prepares us for the possibility of major upheavals. “The further back you can look, the further forward you are likely to see.” That quote from British statesman, strategist and writer Winston Churchill, captures the power of rehearsal extremely well. In other words: looking back carefully helps you reimagine the future. But that means we must be open to evolving insights and a less rigid attitude towards once learned, but now outdated views and behavior.

The keynote speaks of upcoming shifts in terms of ‘convergences’, or the coming together of developments from diverse corners of the economy, technology, science, geopolitics, society, and more. Such a bundling is often a harbinger or a warning of a change in order. An extensive view of past events – combined with current and emerging signals – can make rehearsing for various sectors such as healthcare, transport, food, and energy, more effective.

In the same way, we must map ‘horizontal’ phenomena, such as AI and other technologies, based on known and repetitive patterns. For example, AI is converging with humanoid robots, which means that AI will no longer be controlled via the prompt, but via normal human interaction. There are also far-reaching links between AI and virtual reality, among other things. By connecting all available dots from past and present, we can sketch the contours of a possible future through a focus on ‘catalysts and obstacles’.

For the time being, the world, societies, companies and their leaders face major challenges. Currently, as in the 1920s and 1930s, you see increasing polarization, a lack of crisis resilience, severe economic and social challenges, a shift to regional supply chains and the rise of the surveillance society. But, we also have the opportunity for the first time in a century to address these challenges and many others.