Catalyst Poll Results


Updated results: April 9th, 2019. The response has been great, but I’d like to capture more voices. Please consider taking this very short Poll.


In a recent post on What to Expect in 2019, I launched three focus areas for the coming year. This focus attempts to identify the key drivers of change and the outcomes they enable. The three areas are:

  1. Convergence is one of the key dynamics I expect/hope to see more of this year. A century ago, convergence across multiple domains ushered in unprecedented advancements in human development. Multiple forces will drive a similar level of convergence in the coming decade.
  2. The pace of innovation and change is often cited as a key difference between the next revolution and prior ones. This is one of the key catalysts driving change, and I expect it to Accelerate.
  3. I believe the world will experience a burst of Possibilities enabled by these forces of convergence and acceleration

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Mapping the Path of Innovation


In a recent post, I asked my readers to help me identify those catalysts that force the actions required to steer our future towards advancing our human development. Feel free to respond to the Poll. The number one response was the rapid pace of innovation. That response supports my own opinion that the pace will ultimately force stakeholders across multiple domains to take action. Much like the Domain Convergence that occurred during our most Transformative Period in History, convergence is required if we are to take the correct path towards human flourishing.

Balancing the Opposing Forces of Innovation is critical to enhancing our future. This subway diagram focuses on two paths: one that enhances human development (green), and one that diminishes it (red). The station stops are the major innovations likely to have the biggest impact in either direction – but we could add several other stations based on the number of Building Blocks available to society. Click on the visual to expand it.

Addressing the Rapid Pace of Innovation

In a recent book titled The Big Nine, author Amy Webb describes three future scenarios for artificial intelligence: optimistic, pragmatic, and catastrophic. This type of exercise is instructive, as it paints a picture of the potential paths for one of our station stops – and that’s just one stop along the way. What happens when the various stops spawn new stops? What happens as they converge and amplify impact? In the aforementioned book, our author describes the prescriptive steps to be taken to ensure a path towards human flourishing. We’d be wise to heed her advice.

Three Trillion Reasons


SAP Ariba Live

I had the pleasure of delivering a dinner keynote at this weeks SAP Ariba Live event. I was very impressed with the event theme: 3 Trillion Reasons. That theme is a play on the nearly $3 trillion in commerce flowing through SAP Ariba annually. Although that number speaks to commerce, the theme spoke to purpose. As positioned on this Blog frequently, I expect a continued Shift to Purpose and Well-Being.

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Systems Thinking: The Key to Thriving in a Complex Future


Our future is very complex. The sheer number of building blocks complicates not just our ability to see the future, but any chance we have to navigate it. As these building blocks combine in ever increasing ways, the challenges multiply. Leaders of tomorrow will move towards systemic leadership, having an ability to connect dots. Innovation will move from a myopic view of offerings to systems innovation.

To accomplish this, systems thinking must be embraced by leaders. Systems thinking is a holistic approach to analysis that focuses on the way that a system’s constituent parts interrelate and how systems work over time and within the context of larger systems. As leaders, we struggle with this holistic approach, choosing instead to focus on short term versus long term, and delivering immediate results versus positioning for the future. This focus is in direct conflict with where our complex future is taking us.

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What catalysts force stakeholder actions that ultimately shape our emerging future?


One of our Lessons from History was the presence of catalysts that drove actions that ultimately shaped our future. The major catalysts of the second revolution were astounding levels of innovation, World War One, The Great Depression, World War Two, and the eventual democratization of innovation. What catalysts force stakeholder actions that ultimately shape our emerging future? Please help me build on this list and identify the most significant catalysts. Choose all catalysts that you feel will contribute – or add anything that I am missing. For a deeper description of catalysts, please see the lessons from history post.

Globalization 4.0


Within the context of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the World Economic Forum is focused on Globalization 4.0. We are actually approaching Globalization’s Third Act. In a book titled The Great Convergence, Author Richard Baldwin describes the three constraints that have limited globalization: the cost of moving goods, the cost of moving ideas, and the cost of moving people. The first two acts of globalization occurred when the cost of moving goods and ideas dropped. While globalization raised the standard of living in several developing economies, the third constraint limited the breadth of impact.

In his closing chapter, Mr. Baldwin explores the possibility of a third act. This act is driven by dramatic advancements in areas that address the third constraint. If the cost of moving people were to drop, developing nations like South America, Africa, and others could be the beneficiaries of this third act. Globalization 4.0That aside, the World Economic Forum is looking at global risks and the need for global solutions. They identified Six Questions that must be addressed to make the next wave of Globalization work for all. They correctly state that facing future challenges requires dialog and input from all. Kudos to them for driving the dialog. The six questions are:

  1. How do we save the planet without killing economic growth?
  2. Can you be a patriot and a global citizen?
  3. What should work look like in the future?
  4. How do we make sure technology makes life better not worse?
  5. How do we create a fairer economy?
  6. How do we get countries working together better?

A very good set of questions. You can see how people responded to them by going Here.

Reimagining the Future


Future thinking has often focused on a three-horizon framework that allows for the continued advancement of  core business, while planning for emerging opportunities. I believe the challenge these days is time compression associated with rapid advancement. When someone says to me: “I’m not worried about five years from now”, my reaction is always the same. What looks to be five years out is likely only 18 months away: A phenomenon I describe in this piece on Acceleration.

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